Twitter Observations: AJ Brown, Kenny Golladay and Rising Rookies

Michael Moore

It may be hard to believe but we’ve reached the halfway point of a pretty typical season. The schedule may be in constant flux but everything else about the 2020 season has been normal including the trade chatter as we enter the trade deadline in real life and our dynasty leagues. Below are players who could be on the move in both which will affect their dynasty value.

A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a redraft slant to them but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications.

Brown Recluse

For all the talk of DK Metcalf the last few weeks (which is very deserving!), it’s almost as if people forgot about Metcalf’s fellow 2019 Draft classmate, AJ Brown. Some would argue Brown was the better dynasty receiver at the conclusion of their rookie seasons when Brown, not Metcalf, was the only rookie to top 1,000 yards and did it on just 52 receptions. It was certainly true in the last part of the 2019 season when Ryan Tannehill took over as Titans quarterback and Brown went to record four 100-yard games and five touchdowns in the Titans’ last six games.

Fast forward to the 2020 season, when Metcalf was topping at least 90 yards and scoring five touchdowns in the Seahawks’ first five games and jumping to the top spot in DLF receiver rankings. Meanwhile, Brown had been bitten by the injury bug early in the season, missing weeks two-four and was drifting into an afterthought. But he’s picked up where he left off last season, seeing at least five receptions in each of the last three weeks and scoring in each of them.

Dynasty Impact: After Brown’s ADP was slowly creeping up to top-five status, it dipped to the WR1/2 line because of the recent injuries.

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However, it could start creeping back up again with more games helmed by Tannehill. In the 14 regular-season games that Tannehill has started, Brown has a slash line of 62 receptions for 1,110 yards and 10 (!) touchdowns. That’s a great line for a 16-game season let alone one for 14. Between the production, draft capital (he was drafted in the second round of the 2019 Draft), age (23) and situation he’s in, Brown could be a value at his current ADP. I’d target him for a 2020 fantasy playoff run and beyond.

Oh My God, They Killed Kenny(‘s Dynasty Value)!

Yikes. The thought of Kenny Golladay – he of the career 16.8 yards-per-reception and two straight 1,000-yard seasons – could head to the abyss that is the New York Giants offense is sickening enough. But even if he doesn’t end up a Giant, it should possibly prepare us for Golladay at least moving on from Detroit. Despite the Lions and Golladay allegedly being close to an extension earlier this year, it hasn’t happened and now these trade talks pop up.

Golladay is due to be a free agent at the end of the season and it’s anyone’s guess what Detroit is thinking. They sit at 3-3, perfectly average, and don’t appear to be in a position to make a deep playoff run. It could lead to the offloading of quarterback Matt Stafford and the dismissal of coach Matt Patricia, both of which would usher in a rebuild that Golladay may not be part of.

Dynasty Impact: Despite the off-field machinations going on in Detroit, Golladay is still producing like a WR1. He’s totaled at least one score or a 100-yard game in each of his four games this season and continues to be the best target for Stafford in the Detroit passing game. However, I’d still be worried about his long-term dynasty value.

If the Lions fail to progress beyond another average season, Golladay could find himself moving on to an uncertain situation. Currently, he’s on the WR1/2 line when it comes to dynasty ADP which might be peak value for him as it’s hard to see him ending up in a better fantasy situation. I would look to sell to a contender in your league and get the most value I can before it’s too late.

Super Charged

Seemingly lost in the shuffle of the rookie quarterback class of 2020 was Justin Herbert. You had top pick Joe Burrow followed by fellow stud Tua Tagovailoa who were both the talk of the draft before it happened. After the draft, you had the intrigue of the Packers taking Jordan Love towards the end of the first round. But in the middle was Herbert, quietly taken by the Los Angeles Chargers to succeed Philip Rivers.

No one expected Herbert to make an immediate impact since the Chargers already had Tyrod Taylor for the specific reason of being a bridge to the future. But one punctured lung later and Herbert was thrown to the wolves where he proved worthy, so far, of being a first-round pick.

In his first five games, Herbert has thrown for 300 yards in three of them and has at least three touchdowns in three straight. He’s been a legit QB1 when it comes to fantasy scoring and is just getting started.

Dynasty Impact: While Herbert was typically drafted behind the top tier of rookie running backs and receivers in 2020 rookie drafts – even in superflex leagues – it appears that may have been a mistake.

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According to the DLF Rookie App, Herbert lasted until the end of the first round. If you snagged him then, or later, you got a bargain. He’s been a QB1 so far and is surrounded by a quality supporting cast including Keenan Allen who’s been averaging his best yards-per-game total in three years. If you have Herbert, hold on for dear life. His dynasty value has gone from late first-round (superflex) pick to being worth at least two firsts.

Mims the Word

Despite the disappointing finish, it was a solid debut for rookie receiver Denzel Mims. The second-round rookie saw seven targets, catching four of them for 42 yards. Mims has been lost among this group of rookie receivers which include several first and second-rounders. A hamstring injury to Mims certainly contributed to the anonymity along with the fact that Mims plays for the Jets. But he’s still a second round, 23-year old receiver who’s played just one game in his career.

Dynasty Impact: Mims’ debut surely reminded dynasty leaguers why he didn’t last past the middle of the second round of rookie drafts.

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Acting as the top receiver for the Jets last week, perhaps sooner than anyone expected, Mims came through as quarterback Sam Darnold’s favorite target. Now, the Jets won’t have an explosive offense at any point this season but there may also never be a better time to get Mims. If you’re a team already looking ahead to next year, Mims would make a fine throw-in as part of a bigger deal.

michael moore