Flip or Stick?
One of the hardest decisions in dynasty fantasy football is what to do with players who have exceeded the expectations we had for them. Should you flip these players and attempt to “cash-out,” or do you ride the wave wherever it may take you and have them stick to your roster, knowing that their value and production could bottom out at any moment? On a personal level, I trade away any players who hit unexpectedly, but that doesn’t mean it’s always the correct call.
One caveat to my “verdict” — you should still look to see what you can obtain in a trade for the players listed below. Even if I suggest a player should stick on your roster, no player should ever be off-limits if the price is right. One additional caveat — my thoughts are subjective. Yes, they will be stat-based, but they will still incorporate my thoughts on what the stats and situations for these players say.
Travis Fulgham, WR PHI
To say Fulgham has come out of nowhere might be an understatement. A former walk-on at Old Dominion, Fulgham was drafted in the sixth round of the 2019 draft by the Detroit Lions, and the Eagles are the third organization he’s been employed by. The Eagles actually cut him before signing him to their practice squad, and he was promoted week four and made an immediate impact with 13.7 fantasy points.
I largely ignored him, though, because 42 yards and a touchdown came on one play, and Fulgham saw just three targets against the 49ers. Oops. Fulgham has proceeded to score 31, 19, and 12 fantasy points the following three weeks. He’s seen no less than ten targets in any of those weeks, and his snap share has increased every week as well, and he was on the field for 96% of the offensive plays in the Eagles week seven win against the Giants.
So why would I advocate to sell Fulgham? There are a couple of issues. One the Eagles are on their bye after next Sunday’s game against the Cowboys, the Eagles are on a bye, which limits the window you have to sell him. Yes, this is dynasty, but you know as well as I know that we as a community are easily distracted, and one week off is sometimes enough to cause a dip in player’s value (at least those of the marginal variety).
Secondly, the Eagles should see an influx of talent after they return from their bye week, if not this week against Dallas. Dallas Goedert and Jalen Reagor both had their 21-day return from the IR window activated and both have been practicing this week. Goedert has been targeted on just 13% of Carson Wentz’s targets in games played together, but nearly all of those games included Zach Ertz, so that number is slightly skewed. Ertz will miss several weeks, and I expect Goedert to assume most of the 24% target share Ertz has averaged during his career playing with Wentz. Reagor was a first-round pick and saw four targets in weeks one and two, and played on over 85% of offensive snaps in week two.
Alshon Jeffery could also return someday. Though Jeffery is coming off a severe injury, it’s hard to ignore the fact that Wentz has targeted him over 22% in 33 career games they’ve played together.
Even if Jeffery can’t get healthy, the return of Goedert and Reagor should put a significant dent in Fulgham’s target share.
Verdict: Flip
Fulgham has exceeded all expectations, but it’s time to cash out. It’s just not likely that he continues to play on 90%+ of the offensive snaps or sees a 29% target share as he has over the past three weeks. If you can pull off a trade similar to the example below, that’s a smash accept.
Chase Edmonds, RB ARI
If you are an Edmonds truther, this is what you came for! After outscoring Kenyan Drake on a per-opportunity basis all season, Edmonds finally got a chance to shine this past week against the Seahawks. His moment in the sun was due, at least in part, to Drake going down to a significant ankle injury. Edmonds set season highs in touches, rushing yards, targets, receptions, receiving yards, and, most importantly, fantasy points, dropping a cool 21.5 points.
In fact, this week was the second time out of the last three games that Edmonds scored 20+ fantasy points.
We are not exactly clear how long Drake will be out but based on Adam Schefter’s below tweet, I’ll venture a guess it’s going to be multiple weeks.
Cardinals’ RB Kenyan Drake is expected to miss “a few weeks” with a slight tear of a ligament in his ankle, per source. Cardinals are treating it like a high ankle sprain.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 26, 2020
Based on usage, it’s evident the Cardinals believe Edmonds is the superior receiving back. Drake is averaging just 1.42 targets per game and hasn’t had more than two targets in any game, while Edmonds has seen at least four targets in five of seven games this year (and at least five targets in four games). Edmonds might be the better pure running back as well.
Running behind the same offensive line, Edmonds is outgaining Drake by 1.8 rushing yards per attempt while creating 0.5 yards per attempt than Drake, per Fantasydata.com. Drake is a free agent after this season and has been out-produced in fantasy and in real life by Edmonds. It’s more than plausible that Edmonds convinces the Cardinals that Drake is obsolete.
Verdict: Stick
This is the exact situation you added Edmonds to your roster for in the first place. Either through injury or inefficiency, you as the Edmonds believer knew that he would overtake Drake. This is why we play dynasty football, right? We stake out a claim on a player, and then we crow when they smash. This is that moment.
Unless someone is going to overpay for Edmonds, why in the world would you trade him now? Perusing the DLF Dynasty Trade Finder, there aren’t any trades that pique my interest. If you can secure a 2021 rookie first-rounder for Edmonds or a player like Laviska Shenault, I would pull the trigger, but outside of that, he’s a hold.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Pivoting Away from Jonathan Taylor - August 29, 2023
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Kyle Pitts, Brock Purdy and Roster Construction - August 22, 2023
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Late-Round Stashes and More - August 15, 2023
