Dynasty Panic Meter
There are many differences between redraft and dynasty fantasy football. While most of them tip in favor of the dynasty format, there are some differences that are less than ideal. For example, living with the mistakes made on draft day, or the repercussions of a trade. In redraft leagues, a manager can cut bait, bail, and scrounge the waiver wire. For most dynasty teams, waiver wires are sparse and littered with other manager’s mistakes. At that point, it feels like one set of problems is being exchanged for another.
Other times, we think we have a big mistake on our hands, and panic too soon. That often leads to its own set of problems. Rage induction begins when a recently traded player blows up the stat sheet the moment he is on another manager’s roster. Either we’ve all been there or I’m simply talking to myself here.
In this article, we are going to get into a player from each position that managers are panicking about and attempt to decipher how panicked they should be and what the best course of action is.
Let’s get into it.
Carson Wentz, QB PHI
Heading into the 2020 campaign, Wentz was holding solid as the QB8 in dynasty startup ADP. Through seven games, dynasty managers are unsettled, at best, with his performance up to this point. So far, he is completing 58.63% of his passes for 1,760 yards, ten touchdowns, and ten interceptions.
Let’s get into these numbers a bit. The 58.63% completion is the lowest mark of his career. His current average of 251.42 passing yards per game is slightly below his career average of 253.41. His 6.1 yards-per-attempt average also marks the lowest of his career.
His ten passing touchdowns are the lowest through his first seven starts of a season. Going back to 2017, he averages 15 passing touchdowns through the first seven starts. Not only are his ten interceptions tied for the most in the league, but they are also more than he has had in any season, aside from his rookie year.
After all the depressing stats, it is time to analyze the cause. Wentz has had little support from his surrounding cast. Most of the people he can throw to (not counting the opposing team) have been or are currently injured. Alshon Jeffery, Jalen Reagor, DeSean Jackson, and Dallas Goedert immediately come to mind, followed most recently by Zach Ertz and Miles Sanders. The Eagles offensive line has not done a great job of protecting their franchise quarterback, allowing 4.0 sacks per game through the first four weeks.
Between injury and lack of protection, is there any glimmer of hope on the horizon? Thus far, the stats portray a short, yet incomplete story of dynasty disappointment. Yet there are reasons to be hopeful. Let’s get into some of the positives.
Through six games, Wentz has rumbled for 185 rushing yards and five scores. The five rushing touchdowns are more than he has finished any season with. His 185 rushing yards are already more than his two previous season totals and he is averaging just over five yards per attempt. While they are not typically designed runs, Wentz has made the most of broken plays and collapsing protection. Basically, he is willing himself to score.
A good portion of the injured weapons are either on the cusp of returning or should be within the next several weeks.
Panic Meter Level: 4
On a ten-point scale, my panic meter for Wentz is at a four. I am more concerned about his health from the hits he’s taking than his ability as a passer or a leader of this offense. Some of the picks have been truly his fault, while others are of the receiver-oops variety. We’ve seen better from Wentz and have enough information to conclude that he is a top-12 option at the position.
The Eagles went after receivers through the off-season and the draft process to support this offense. Assuming a healthy offensive line and a healthy core of weapons, Wentz has a history of top-12 production and should continue to do so.
If managers are panicking, now is the time to buy. Utilizing the DLF Trade Finder, we can see that some people are willing to part with less than value to unload Wentz right now. The term buy-low gets tossed around an awful lot these days, but this is a legitimate opportunity to do so.
David Montgomery, RB CHI
Montgomery’s rookie season fell a little flat when compared to what some of the expectations were. Many industry minds remain divided on how high Montgomery’s actual ceiling is. Based on his rookie season, his ADP fell from a positional average of 20.5 to 22.4 at present.
Let’s take a look at the numbers to see if the panic matches the pace. Through his first six starts of 2019, Montgomery had 71 rushing attempts that he turned into 231 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. He averaged 3.7 yards per carry during that stretch. He also tacked on 11 receptions on 15 targets for 85 receiving yards and zero scores. In .5 scoring, he averaged 8.18 fantasy points per contest. (These stats are available with our handy Player Scoring History App.)
Through the first six weeks of the 2020 season, Montgomery has 82 rushing attempts for 305 yards, one touchdown, and is still averaging his stalwart 3.7 yards per carry. Consistency, folks. He has 20 receptions on 28 targets for an additional 163 yards and one more score. Through the first six weeks, he is averaging 13.13 fantasy points per game.
Panic Meter Level: 4
Montgomery comes in at a four for me. But, it has taken some realignment to get there. Allow me to explain.
The hope for some managers has been that he could take the second-year leap that we saw Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordon take and ascend into the top 12 at the position. The hope for Bears fans was that he could become the Great Value brand of Matt Forte.
Montgomery is not ‘Forte lite’. He’s a slightly slower but more shifty Carlos Hyde. Once I, personally, came to terms with that, I realized that he is performing right where we should expect him to with a little more upside.
He is currently the RB22 for fantasy scoring and that is his wheelhouse. It’s his home. His floor is a volume-based RB2 in most matchups. The upside is the increase in targets he has received since Tarik Cohen went down with a season-ending injury. The recommendation is to hold him for the remainder of the season and hope the additional targets raises his trade value ahead of the 2021 season.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR PIT
Sometimes, the hardest things to write are the truths we aren’t ready to accept. Smith-Schuster fans, slide that box of tissues closer before reading on.
For the sake of rational analysis, it is difficult to want to include any statistical information from the 2019 quarterback carousel. Missing Ben Roethlisberger had its effects on the entire offense, not just Smith-Schuster. So, we will be including the 2018 season as well for the sake of building a top to bottom spectrum.
In 2018, Smith-Schuster averaged 89.13 yards per game and 12.8 yards per reception and finished with seven touchdowns. The 2019 season was an absolute bust when compared to the startup ADP and trade value.
For the sake of reference, here is the ADP Over Time graph.
Smith-Schuster finished 2019 averaging 46 yards per game in 12 games and three scores. There are several factors to take into consideration. The main one was an early injury exit for Roethlisberger and sub-par quarterback play by both Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges. Smith-Schuster also missed a few games himself, due to injury.
Five games into his 2020 campaign, with Big Ben back under center and playing well, Smith-Schuster’s production struggles continue. Per PFF, he is lining up in the slot 82% of the time, where he has most of his damage (66% in 2019 and 62% in 2018). Despite those factors, he is averaging 5.6 targets per game, but only 38.8 yards per contest. In fact, he has not topped 70 receiving yards since week eight of 2019.
Panic Meter Level: 8
Utilizing the same ten-point scale, Smith-Schuster saunters in at an eight for me. There were questions about his viability as a top-tier receiver sans Antonio Brown. Those questions did not get properly answered due to the quarterbacking situation from the 2019 season.
Smith-Schuster is maintaining a 17% target share and was out-targeted by Diontae Johnson 23 to 14 in the first two weeks of the season. His 8.4 yards-per-reception average is the lowest of his career. He is currently the WR38 in .5 scoring on the back of his three touchdowns.
At this point, it seems unlikely that the Steelers are going to re-sign him for next season. It appears that Smith-Schuster may operate best with an alpha wide receiver to command defensive attention. Fantasy managers may be better suited to taking their lumps and holding him while hoping for a change of scenery for next season.
Evan Engram, TE NYG
There is a lot to unpack with the incredibly gifted tight end. Engram’s raw, athletic talent is very present and difficult to ignore. He has flashed at times, especially during his rookie season where he hung 722 receiving yards and six touchdowns on the board.
Despite those factors, there are reasons to be firmly entrenched in panic mode. The health factor is the first that comes to mind. In his first three full seasons, he has played in 34 of 48 possible games and hasn’t played a full season since his rookie year.
Production is another factor as his best season is a few years behind him. In those 34 games played, he averaged 7.2 targets, 4.5 receptions, and 51.94 yards per game. Through six weeks of 2020, he is averaging 5.8 targets, 3.3 receptions for 29.5 yards and has yet to find the end zone. What really makes these numbers surprising is when one factors in all the missing pieces the Giants have had. Saquon Barkley is done for the season. Sterling Shepard is returning from injured reserve. Golden Tate missed week one. There has been a need for an able-bodied pass-catcher, and it has not been Shepard.
To be perfectly fair, Daniel Jones has not been great thus far either. He’s completing 61-percent of his passes, but only averaging 203 yards per game at 6.1 yards per attempt. He has also thrown six interceptions and had four fumbles.
Panic Meter Level: 7
Engram comes in at panic level seven. So far, he is the TE21 on the season despite being drafted as the TE7 in startups. The landscape of tight end can be more volatile due to position scarcity, meaning that overpaying for an underperforming asset equates to missing out on a better replacement asset to begin with.
Looking ahead, there are some decent matchups on the schedule ahead. Fantasy managers looking to move him may need to wait for a couple of big games before attempting to do so.
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