Cornerstone Report: Week Six
Welcome to the Cornerstone Report. This weekly in-season series focuses on the NFL rookie class and projected 2021 rookie class.
It uses tools including our Dynasty Trade Analyzer, the DLF Trade Finder, average draft position and DLF rankings to compare player values.
Last week’s column featuring Kylin Hill, Terrace Marshall and Justin Herbert can be found here.
NCAA WEEK Seven
Trevor Lawrence, QB Clemson
The presumed first overall pick of the 2021 NFL draft is posting career-best marks in every major passing category.
Statistics from SportsReference.
Lawrence’s career mark of 10.0 adjusted yards per attempt already puts him in the top quartile of quarterbacks selected in the first round over the last decade. This year’s standalone 12.2 AY/A is second only to Tua Tagovailoa’s 12.3 career mark.
Visualized another way, we see Lawrence is in a league of his own compared to quarterbacks of the ACC.
Updated ACC QB efficiency numbers. Trevor Lawerence is starting to run away from the pack #ACC #CollegeFootball #CFBStats pic.twitter.com/tPaSNuf1yD
— CFBNumbers (@CFBNumbers) October 18, 2020
He is an elite passer. But these days a quarterback needs rushing production to be an elite fantasy producer. In 2019, the top ten fantasy quarterbacks averaged a rushing line of 77-408-3.8. Even after eliminating Lamar Jackson’s outlying 176-1,206-7 performance, the remaining top nine QBs averaged 66-319-3.4 on the ground.
Lawrence fits this profile. In just over two seasons, he has run for 800 yards and 14 touchdowns (and recall sack yardage counts against rushing production in college).
He can still do this at 6’6” and 220 pounds.
HE. COULD. GO. ALL. THE. WAY.
Trevor Lawrence shows off his wheels on this 67-yard TD run! #CFBPlayoff pic.twitter.com/ReaYPHh1XZ
— ACC Network (@accnetwork) December 29, 2019
The only concern is landing spot. The franchises most likely to secure the first overall pick have questionable leadership and could limit his ceiling.
Here is the current draft order after this Sunday. It's a 6 team race for the Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence sweep stakes. pic.twitter.com/0C5gt6cRr3
— jbook™ (@jbook37) October 19, 2020
That concern is not yet affecting his dynasty value. Lawrence is 17th overall in the DLF Devy Rankings and 14th among 2021 prospects, as QB1 in both cases. He is 18th overall in 1QB Devy ADP. In Superflex ADP he is the clear 1.01 pick. Finally, the DLF Cornerstone Rankings combine first and second-year NFL players with 2021 rookies. Even in its 1QB format, Lawrence is ranked 22nd, between Tee Higgins and Deebo Samuel.
Journey Brown, RB Penn State
Just days from his 2020 debut, we learned this week that Journey Brown may miss the season due to injury.
Penn State junior starting RB Journey Brown may not play this season. In a statement, school says Brown “is being treated for a medical condition discovered during the off-season & will potentially miss the 2020 football season.”
— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) October 20, 2020
Brown is an explosive back who has gained popularity after an impressive 2019 season.
Statistics from Sports Reference.
His speed initially catches the eye:
Journey Brown: still very, very fast 💨💥 pic.twitter.com/x8Z4hzcY4u
— Onward State (@OnwardState) November 9, 2019
However, he is more than just a straight-line speedster. He has good contact balance and strength, and looks every bit of his listed 5’11” and 215-pound frame.
JOURNEY BROWN BEAST MODEhttps://t.co/jqLMPIepcQ
— Barstool Penn State (@PSUBarstool) December 28, 2019
In a season full of opt-outs, it remains to be seen how an undisclosed medical condition may affect Brown’s value. He may choose to return for another year of school given his limited body of work. But as of now, he projects as a late first or early second-round dynasty rookie pick. He is ranked 15th in the DLF Devy Rankings between Florida State WR Tamorrion Terry and 2022 Purdue wide receiver David Bell. His devy ADP of eighth overall – seventh among 2021 rookies – suggests an even higher value.
NFL WEEK Six
Chase Claypool, WR PIT
Claypool is the latest rookie wide receiver to catch our attention. A week after his 42 point outburst, he produced a borderline WR1 week with a 4-74-0 receiving line and added a rushing touchdown, his second of the year. His productivity is off the charts. At 3.85 PPR points per touch, he not only leads Steelers WRs (JuJu Smith-Schuster is second with 2.71) but is second among all NFL wide receivers (DK Metcalf 4.53; minimum 4.0 touches per game).
That efficiency is unlikely to continue. So will volume make up the difference? Unfortunately, the Steelers pass-catching group is murky. The top five target recipients all average between 4.8 and 6.5 targets per game. Claypool is yet to ascend to WR1. If anything, Diontae Johnson seems to have emerged as the leader. With 26 targets though four games (Pittsburgh had a week four bye and Johnson missed week six), his 6.5 targets per game and 19.4% target rate per snap lead the team.
Nonetheless, Claypool’s hot start is a positive addition to a mixed prospect profile.
Statistics from Sports Reference.
Until his senior season, he fell short of the baseline production we hope to see from college prospects, as visualized by the DLF College Market Share App.
The Steelers are deliberately scheming high-quality touches for him just a few weeks into his professional career – a huge positive.
.@ChaseClaypool's second rushing touchdown of the season!
📺 CBS 📱https://t.co/tI5aUTu7te pic.twitter.com/pQmsIYuLxN
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) October 18, 2020
22-year old Claypool is 95th in the DLF Dynasty Rankings between Brandin Cooks and James Robinson as WR33. Our October Startup ADP puts him about a round later at 108th between Denzel Mims and Mike Gesicki. In Superflex/2QB ADP he gets pushed down about another round to 120 overall between Dallas Goedert and N’Keal Harry.
He comes in at 47th in our Cornerstone Rankings between Devin Singletary and Tamorrion Terry.
To get the most current indications of Claypool’s value, we can look at the Dynasty Trade Analyzer and our Trade Finder. First, the Trade Analyzer values him just shy of a random 2021 first-round pick. It may seem inexpensive but still represents rapid appreciation from a Rookie ADP of 2.12 this off-season.
The Trade Finder pulls real-life trades from MyFantasyLeague using custom parameters. Some recent deals involving Claypool include:
- 10-20-20: Chase Claypool for WR Odell Beckham, CLE
- 10-18-20: Chase Claypool and Year 2021 round two draft pick for QB Cam Newton, NE (Superflex)
- 10-18-20: Chase Claypool for Year 2021 round one draft pick and WR Damiere Byrd, NE
- 10-17-20: Chase Claypool for RB Todd Gurley, ATL and WR Terry McLaurin, WAS
- 10-16-20: Chase Claypool for WR DJ Chark, JAC
I hope you enjoyed this edition of the Cornerstone Report. Find me on Twitter at @threedownhack as we uncover the next cornerstone players.
- 20/20: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama - February 26, 2022
- Cornerstone Report: Week Nine - November 12, 2021
- Cornerstone Report: Week Eight - November 5, 2021
