Target Share Report: Week Six
Welcome back to the target share report where we look at player usage and volume to predict and understand where fantasy points are coming from.
The more I try to collect and pump out stats for people to use and enjoy while playing fantasy football, the more I think I should spend extra time showing how they are useful or not. I try to focus on that more in the off-season. But I’ll try to do better at that here as well, starting this week.
Let me know what, if anything, is useful or would be more useful.
Target Share Leaders
Below is a list of the top 12 players in target share in 2020.
There’s a lot to digest here, I know, so I included a simpler way of comparing how target shares work in practice on different teams: A column to show how many games each player has played seven or more targets and the percentage of their games that have crossed that mark.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR ARI
Hopkins is doing great, we know this, but he’s also killing it more than usual. While having clearly proven as a volume hog, he has also consistently proven to be “inefficient” on that volume. My understanding of this was that it is difficult to be as efficient at his level of volume. Similar things happen with Keenan Allen, for example.
However this year we are being treated to an overly efficient season at his typical level of volume. Hopkins “Yards Per Team Attempt”, for example, is 1.55, that’s third at his position in 2020, and his RACR (Receiver Air Conversion Ratio) is 1.28, basically twice his career average.
Now you might be tempted, as I am, to explain this as a function of a better offense. Or Kyler Murray. But Desean Watson is no slouch, and narratives are fickle things we don’t want to get lost in.
So, let’s stick to the facts. Hopkins has insane volume and is consistently being efficient this season. It looks sustainable, and it’s amazing to watch.
Terry McLaurin, WR WAS
As hard as it may be to admit for someone who was not “on” McLaurin, he is doing some special things in Washington this year. Right now he is performing at a high level on a poor offense, and earning all the volume you’d expect a good player in that situation to get.
Take a bow, truthers, and maybe do a dynasty price check-in your league.
Even in Washington, it’s going to be hard for McLaurin to maintain 490 yards per touchdown, which is a good thing. He should pick up some touchdowns soon to bring that down.
Players typically live between 100 and 200 yards per touchdown.
Robby Anderson, WR CAR
Anderson is still the leading wide receiver in Carolina and is still due touchdowns. 570 yards per touchdown is even more unstainable. I’m just going to keep starting him hoping that the (even bigger) ceiling hits.
Marquise Brown, WR BAL
Target Share is by definition not always easy to compare across situations. For example, and as you can see, 26% of targets in Baltimore has led to only two games (33%) with seven or more targets for Brown. But, before you fade him, notice he also has (easily) the highest aDot (average depth of target) of anyone on this list. It’s a different kind of offense. Being this large a part of a target distribution means Brown can break a big game anytime, and he’s had a very decent floor already. This potential can also be seen in his 377 yards per touchdown.
Highest-Scoring Wide Receiver (PPG)
I had no idea who Travis Fulgham was before this season. There’s a lot of that going around this year, to be honest. However, as someone who doesn’t believe producers are created by a loss or lack of other talent, I have to admit that Fulgham is killing it so far.
While we are always warning folks about “small samples” I generally feel that good players are where volume goes, not empty depth charts. Jeff Smith or Josh Malone, in New York, both showed up for a game or two, for example, but quickly faded, and neither of them was able to do anything with that volume. Fulgham has. While he is in a “better” situation, he at least deserves more serious consideration, long-term.
It’s worth noting that Zach Ertz has been increasing his role in the offense over the last few weeks. The reason it hasn’t mattered is that he has been very inefficient (a nerd way of saying “he is sucking”). In fact, Ertz’s inefficiency is reaching historic levels of suckage, but that’s a different story.
It’s a small sample of games so far, but Fulgham, based on how I interpret stats, seems legit. I think the return of Jalen Reagor is something we can look forward to, and likely limits Fulgham’s ceiling to a Tyrell Williams style career arc. However, Fulgham is going to hit my buy/acquire list.
Growing Roles
While looking over the stats for this article I decided to try and make a “trending” stat. I wanted to see whose role has been consistently growing. This is mainly because Christian Kirk had been doing that before his two-touchdown game last week, yet I could find no single stat to bring him up.
There are several ways of doing this. The one I see most often is comparing opportunity stats over the last few weeks directly to season-long numbers. But I wanted something to show a trend not spike usage. In that vein, I calculated the change in target share, and expected points, each week for each payer. Then I average that change since week three.
Not all opportunity gradually increases until you suddenly have a fantasy-relevant player, of course. But, positive signs like this can be enough to help you time the right move for a high variance week-to-week game like fantasy football.
Anyway, see what you think – here are the leading running backs in those stats this week. All of these players, in my opinion, are worth further investigation, as their roles seem to have been increasing recently.
James White, RB NE
This makes a lot of sense, right? Since returning from his personal emergency, White’s role has grown over the last few weeks. However, because of the way this “trend” stat works, it’s not simply showing that he has gone from zero to what his volume is. In fact, he has grown in volume every week since his return. I recommend checking the “weekly” tab in my database to see this more clearly, but this single stat is showing a trend upwards.
If nothing else, he is also one of very few running backs (as always) with his level of volume in the receiving game (he has seen seven targets of more in 66% of his games). He has a very decent floor, in other words.
JK Dobbins, RB BAL
It really does feel like a good time to try and go back in on our rookie RBs. Even as it’s becoming more and more clear this was a “WR Rookie Class” for dynasty. Dobbins carry total over the last four weeks has been 1, 5, 1, 9 attempts. Not great, right? It’s not, but it is tending upwards if you plot it on a graph. His expected points also show an inconsistent but gradual rise over the last four weeks or so.
Yes, I did, once upon a time, have a similar thought about Rashard Penny. But… shut up.
Finally, I’ll leave you with this thought. It’s a good time to go all-in or all-out on rookie running backs. In my opinion. They have been “decent” on their opportunity, yet haven’t blown anyone away yet. Getting that kind of move right, at this point in the season, can be a season-defining move.
So, how confident are you in your rookie evaluations?
Good luck this week, and thanks for checking out this article, you can harass me about anything you want in the comments below or on Twitter anytime.
Thanks,
Peter Howard
@pahowdy
Here is the link to my free database.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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