IDP Waiver Wire: Week Seven
The gist of this column is simple: finding players who are either long-term dynasty fliers OR quality one-week rentals-you’ll tend to know which is which from my write-ups. We will be using two different avenues to uncover IDP talent.
The first measure will actually be a metric I invented, called Disruption Score (updated for the 2019-2020 season here). This metric specifically measures which players were most efficient at getting behind the line of scrimmage and affecting the quarterback’s normal motions, therefore “disrupting” the play. This metric has the most weight for DE/DT, but it can also show us which linebackers have multi-sack upside throughout the season if you are in big-play scoring formats.
Secondly, I will purely assess the matchups for the upcoming week and give my best dart throws for that week. It is definitely the least concrete analysis I have posted, but a large part of fantasy football is going with your guys (and it did very well in this article last year), so this is a section dedicated to that.
Year-to-Date waiver wire standings:
Disruption Score Adds~ 6 Hits, 10 Average, 6 Busts
Matchup-Based Adds~ 11 Hits, 4 Average, 6 Busts (D. Wilson, B. Murphy pending MNF)
*“Busts” will be considered as players who ranked outside of the top 60 of their position for that week, “Hits” will be anyone who finishes within the top 25 of their position, and “Average” will be anyone in between.*
Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
Week Six Observations
- Tyrell Adams had himself a day! I really didn’t expect his role to be that big in his first game stepping in for Benardrick McKinney, but Romeo Crennel had something special in store for him. Unfortunately we weren’t aware of the severity of McKinney’s injury until a day after last week’s article posted, but if he is still on the wire go run and get him now. That defense is racking up a TON of volume.
- Robert Spillane (six tackles in the second half) generated some buzz on Twitter after stepping in for Devin Bush on Sunday. While any part of the Steelers defense has been IDP gold this season (making Spillane a great add), he isn’t the number one priority add across that team for week seven. Read further to see my biggest priority add/trade target of the week
- Malik Reed obviously isn’t among the tier of Von Miller, but he had a great outing yesterday against the Patriots. I liked what I saw from the Broncos defense coming out of their pseudo-bye week, and if I’m thin at linebacker, Reed is a boom-bust option worth rolling out with a month’s worth of favorable matchups coming up after the play the Chiefs next week.
- Continuing our sad, sad search into finding a viable defensive end on the Jets, it appears Bryce Huff is taking a lead over John Franklin-Myers. His only tackle was a sack, while Franklin-Myers was nowhere to be found on the stat sheet.
- A sneaky name off *everyone’s* radar right now is Kiko Alonso. He started the year on the PUP list as he recovers from an ACL injury, but he is now eligible to be activated onto their roster. I cannot seem to find any buzzworthy news of him anywhere, but this is a player that I have stashed on several of my IR lists across my leagues, and could help bring some life to this struggling Saints defense whenever he is ready to go.
- If you need depth at defensive back, Jaguars safety Jarrod Wilson had a decent showing with breakout Andrew Wingard on IR.
Disruption Score Waiver Adds
I finally showed you all a behind-the-scenes look at the Disruption Score rankings in last week’s article, and once again, the metric is showing some serious predictive power into future sacks. After week six, the five highest overall Disruption Scores belong to TJ Watt, Stephon Tuitt, Brandon Graham, Aaron Donald, and Yannick Ngakoue (Joey Bosa is sixth). Aside from Tuitt, these are all household IDP studs, so don’t be too concerned if any of them aren’t producing at the level you were hoping for so far.
When digging deeper into the metric and filtering players with Disruption Scores above 10.0 on the season with low sack rates (< 20% of their tackles being sacks), we are able to find some candidates waiting to finally get to the quarterback and truly disrupt the flow of the game. The hit rate from the graphic I put up for week five was pretty stellar, and once again, these guys didn’t let me down yesterday. Here are a few names to keep in mind as a waiver wire stash, with their Disruption Score proving the potential they have to rise up the IDP ranks.
Defensive Line
William Gholston, DE TB (Season Disruption Score: 30.67 ~ DL #13 overall)
Hey look, it’s an eighth-year breakout! Gholston couldn’t get all the way home to Rodgers yesterday, but he has racked up two sacks through Tampa’s first six games and is already one away from his season-high. The recent trade for Steve McLendon will help divert his opponent’s attention back toward the interior defensive line, and Tampa’s pass rush unit is one of the best in the league. Even if Ndamukong Suh and Shaquil Barrett are the faces of their stout defensive line, there is value to be had (for much, much cheaper) with Gholston. His three quarterback hits this week were reassuring despite his zero tackles.
Uchenna Nwosu, DE LAC (Season Disruption Score: 19.56 ~ DL #27 overall)
Depending on his position designation, Nwosu has blossomed into a solid defensive end opposite Joey Bosa… who wouldn’t though, right? Melvin Ingram III could be back after their bye week, but if you roster either of them, Nwosu is a productive handcuff. Especially with Nwosu being only 23 years old, the 2018 second-rounder will have a quality role sooner rather than later, even if he has to wait for 31-year-old Ingram to fade a bit more first.
Linebacker
Vince Williams, LB PIT (Season Disruption Score: 36.41 ~ LB #4 overall)
As a Steelers fan, this next bit hurts to even talk about. The Steelers defense has been incredibly dominant through their first five games, and every part of that defense has produced some crazy IDP value at some point already. Robert Spillane came in for Devin Bush right away and produced well from an IDP standpoint, but I don’t expect him to come close to the role Bush had in this defense.
Williams is primarily a blitzing linebacker, but his eight years of experience make him the obvious linebacker replacement you need if you lost Bush. Williams’s best season came in 2017, when he accrued 89 tackles and eight sacks. This was the year he had to fill in for Ryan Shazier, and I expect similar numbers out of Williams as he comes into the same role he inherited in 2017. Spillane would be an LB3/LB4, while Williams is a low-LB1/high-LB2 immediately.
Matchup-Based Waiver Adds
Defensive Line
Larry Ogunjobi, DT CLE (Week Seven, @ Cincinnati)
Ogunjobi is one of my favorite defensive tackles to watch on a weekly basis – and I know that sentence shows just how nerdy about IDP I am. Based on everything I’ve seen out of him, there is no better spot for Ogunjobi to finally get a sack than against Cincinnati next Sunday. Burrow was already the most sacked quarterback in the league entering the week, and is now averaging being sacked four times per week. The Browns’ defensive tackle had five and a half sacks in 2018 and 2019, but is yet to get there in 2020. Plug him in with confidence, especially in DT leagues.
Kingsley Keke, DT GB (Week Seven, @ Houston)
Keke is a bit of an enigma to me. Kenny Clark is the bonafide stud in Green Bay, but Keke’s tackle floor has been extremely comforting as well. Keke had six tackles against Tampa Bay, and while none of them were solo tackles, his production reminds me of Trey Flowers in New England in the early stages of his career. This is more of a longshot spot start rather than anything long term, but the only matchup better than Houston for defensive lineman this year is against Cincinnati.
Linebacker
Ja’Whaun Bentley, LB NE (Week Seven, vs. San Francisco)
I already had Bentley written down as a waiver wire and/or trade target before the week started, but then he went out against the Broncos and impressed me even more. Bentley hadn’t posted more than six tackles in any game this season, despite playing in 80%+ of snaps in every game this season. San Francisco has one of the most electric run games in the league, and Bentley is in line for another stellar outing as the Patriots look to get back on track next week.
The Broncos ran the ball 60.6% of the time yesterday, and Bentley made the most of the volume that came his way. The half-sack also shows his ability to even come away with a splash play on top of his tackle floor that is increasing each and every week.
Defensive Backs
Duron Harmon, S DET or Amani Oruwariye, CB DET (Week Seven, @ Atlanta)
Defensive back waiver matchups are tough to find this time of year, and when you find yourself looking for a home run play, you have to be looking for a game with serious pick-six potential. Depending on the position you may need, both Harmon and Oruwariye are lottery tickets with the possibility of posting 15+ points against the pass-heavy Falcons.
Oruwariye will find himself matched up with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley about 85% of the game, meaning he is probably due for 15 or more targets heading his way. That kind of volume is huge when maximizing your chance at a splash play (especially with how Matt Ryan has played most of the season). A safer option would be Harmon, though, and he was actually the one coming away with the interception this week against Gardner Minshew and the Jags. Best of luck in week seven!
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 17 - December 28, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 16 - December 21, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 15 - December 15, 2020
