Target Share Report: Week Five
Welcome back to the target share report, where I break down player usage in 2020 and look to interesting, unusual situations that might help us in dynasty.
We have a lot to go through because of week five’s data and injuries, so let’s get to it.
Top 12 Target Share players
Adam Thielen, WR MIN
Thielen has had a target share over 30% in four games this season, peaking at 45%, and in his one “low” game he still had a 20% target share. The only player to have target share that consistently over 30% (80% of games) so far in 2020 is Jamison Crowder (66% of games). Minnesota has passed less and passed at a lower rate than the Jets this season, but Thielen also operates a full five yards further down the field, according to their aDots.
That can be yard to conceptualize, so consider this: Of players who have played all five games, only eight have had at least eight targets in every game. Of those players, only two have an aDot over 11 yards down the field: Calvin Ridley and Thielen.
Robby Anderson, WR CAR (re: DJ Moore, WR CAR)
I had to go back and read my week two article to make sure I’d pointed out Anderson early. I did, good for me. I suggested you stay on the train BUT notice that DJ Moore was the target leader… damn, so close.
Since then, Anderson has lead the team in targets every week and is one of those players to have at least eight targets in 80% of his games. He is operating closer to the line of scrimmage than usual (aDot of 9.1, his career average is 15) and has maintained significant efficiency (1.12 RACR – receiver air conversion ratio, average is around 0.7).
Robby Anderson is the wide receiver one in Carolina this year, and he’s earned it.
Essentially we got the roles entirely wrong, or, I did when I was considering the 2020 season this off-season. You, for all I know, got this entirely right. Moore is operating further down the field with an aDot of 13.1 with a 0.79 RACR (still decent, at that aDot, to be fair).
Interestingly both are due some touchdowns, as they are averaging far too many yards per touchdown. Expectation, pretty much universally according to Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad), is between 100 and 200 yards per touchdown. Right now Moore is at 384 yards per touchdown and Anderson is at 493.
So, Anderson wins the regression indicator as well.
Marquise Brown, WR BAL
My notes on Brown for my DLF ranks simply read “underrated”. So, what’s wrong with Marquise Brown? He’s operating at an elite target share, on a dynamic offense that is dominant in the NFL, with a huge 16.3 aDot averaging 120 Airyards per game in 2020. What’s not to like? Why is he only ranked as the WR36 in DLF’s top 200?
Well, touchdowns is part of it. He has 320 yards per touchdown through five weeks and has only caught one touchdown, and that was last week. He’s also on a low passing offense – that’s led to only two games with eight targets. Lamar Jackson is great, but he’s not Russell Wilson, who throws touchdowns at a rate so efficient it makes math cry.
None of this is likely to change anytime soon. But Brown has also had a floor of six targets, at an average depth of target so 16, and has been efficient relative to that depth according to RACR. He’s good, and young, and on a good offense, and he’s the underrated in dynasty.
If none of this makes your value needle sway, then, I don’t know, maybe play more redraft?
Jamison Crowder, WR NYJ
Crowder feels like a miss. Not that I didn’t point out his high target share or suggest it was likely to continue whenever he was healthy. But I was down on his potential to produce consistently in this offence. Thankfully, roses grow in dirt, and Crowder is beating the odds with extreme efficiency. Given his low value in dynasty, that means I “missed a trick”.
However, I still think it’s going to be hard for him to maintain 22 PPG on the Jets. Still, he’s an easy buy if his current ADP is a reflection of his value.
Jeff Smith, WR NYJ
Who?
No, really, who is this? I had no idea. I had researched Josh Malone (again,) but still didn’t go deep enough to find Smith.
Jeff, apparently, has played the last two games for the Jets and held a 21% target share in week four, and 35% (!!!) in week five. He has also, to be honest, sucked with it.
That may be too hard on him, considering how fun this whole thing is, and that it’s only been two games. Also, he’s on the Jets, so he has that going against him. But even with a two-game sample and a 12.5 aDot, his 0.46 RACR is bad.
I mean, sure, let’s learn more about Smith, consider adding him on depleted or deep rosters, and send positive vibes to all the players struggling on this “offense”. Who knows, he has a role right now.
Situations to Consider
So, Chase Claypool is a thing, I guess? As DLF subscriber, you were likely very well aware of who Claypool was before the draft. Which is a good thing. And while it’s fun to see half of the community all say “who?” when we already know exactly who he is, it’s tough because I’m not sure any of us thought his breakout game would or could come soon, or be so… wow.
It is both a great time to sell and hold Claypool considering how impressive that week five was and how hard it is going to be to maintain. So, let’s take a quick look at his situation, and try and see what happened.
Here’s everyone on the team with a 10% target share or greater. The thing I notice is that Claypool does not operate at the same depth of target as either JuJu Smith-Schuster or Diontae Johnson. Claypool works a lot further down the field. In fact, he has constantly had an aDot over 13 every week, and in week three, when Johnson had two targets, Claypool’s target share immediately rose, from 6% and 7% week one and two, up to 11%.
Targets don’t get backfilled (like they were “vacated”), but players with talent do attract and create targets. Last week, when Johnson got hurt, Claypool’s target share rose dramatically (32%) likely because he was playing “hot.” But his aDot remained relatively similar. In other words, he’s not filling in for Johnson, but he is talented enough, so far at least, that when the opportunity opens up, he can create his own targets.
But that’s a two-week breakdown worth basically nothing because of the sample size.
What’s more important to me is that Claypool is likely to work down the field, at an elevated volume, if Johnson is out.
Smith-Schuster’s target share and aDot could fill out an article of its own. It’s bizarre and honestly feels and looks very strange compared to his own history. But it’s interesting that his aDot rose in week three when Johnson had two targets, up to 8.6 (which is still low, but better, and similar to Johnson’s).
In essence, and in my opinion, it’s reasonable to assume that Claypool will get more volume and that could help out JuJu’s aDot – if Johnson is unavailable. That actually sounds like a much more typical divide, to be honest, so I may be influenced by seeing what looks “normal”. However, I think it’s a fair expectation.
In essence, Claypool looks like a rich man’s Laviska Shenault. A 15% target share, some rushing work, but with a higher aDot. Shenault is the WR28 on the season, and I think Claypool has upside. As for their rushing work, it’s likely to be exaggerated and much less reliable than you may think. Shenault has had between one to five carries (once) and no touchdowns.
So, in dynasty, Claypool looks more like a buy, and in 2020, his initial expectation is top-36 wide receiver with upside. Not bad.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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