Cornerstone Report: Week Five
Welcome to the Cornerstone Report. This weekly in-season series focuses on the NFL rookie class and projected 2021 rookie class.
It uses tools including our Dynasty Trade Analyzer, the DLF Trade Finder, average draft position and DLF rankings to compare player values.
Last week’s column featuring Trey Lance, Travis Etienne and Laviska Shenault can be found here.
NCAA WEEK Five
Kylin Hill, RB Mississippi State
Hill has benefitted from the arrival of new MSU head coach Mike Leach. His rushing numbers are down but he has been given an opportunity to showcase his receiving skills, and that’s where he will carve out a role in the NFL.
Statistics from Sports Reference.
Listed at 5’11” and 210 pounds, he has good size for the position. In 2019 he led the Bulldogs with 242 carries (the RB2 had just 55). However, he does not have the look of an NFL bell-cow back, and in today’s NFL, the name of the game is versatility.
Despite compiling just 15 rushes through three games, his 23 catches already exceed his previous season-high.
To see how the season may unfold, look to Max Borghi, who caught 139 passes over two seasons as the RB1 for Leach at Washington State.
Statistics from Sports Reference.
Hill has been on the devy radar since enrolling at MSU and he was already gaining momentum this summer. He is the 28th-ranked player in the DLF Devy Rankings, and 20th among 2021 prospects, between UGA running back Zamir White and Penn State tight end Pat Freiermuth.
This spot is near his ceiling. He will not join the top tier of backs alongside Travis Etienne, Chuba Hubbard and Najee Harris. He could reach tier two, including Penn State’s Journey Brown, but that tier projects behind nine or so wide receivers. That puts him in the top half of round two of rookie drafts, just a few spots better than his current ranking.
Devy ADP is lower on Hill than the DLF devy crew. At 33rd overall, the broader devy community puts him about five spots lower than our devy team.
The DLF Cornerstone Rankings combine first and second-year NFL players with 2021 rookies. They are a tool unique to DLF that compares the values of college prospects with young NFL players. Hill is not included in these rankings, which go 59 players deep. Note that Borghi comes in at 51 between Denzel Mims and Eno Benjamin.
Terrace Marshall, WR LSU
When projected top-ten overall NFL Draft pick Ja’Marr Chase opted out of the 2020 season, it created an opportunity for the other LSU wide receivers. Through three games, Marshall is making the most of it. He leads the Tigers in all receiving categories.
Overshadowed by three NFL first-rounders in 2019, Marshall still caught 46 passes for 671 yards and 13 touchdowns. That’s good for a 14.6% dominator rating – shy of the 20% breakout threshold but respectable considering the offensive talent on LSU’s national championship team.
Statistics from Sports Reference.
Marshall is not a one-year wonder. He is a quality prospect in his own right. As a five star recruit, he was the 13th-ranked player nationally regardless of position. With Justin Jefferson, Chase, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and even Thaddeus Moss gone, Marshall is the Tigers’ WR1 as a junior.
To what extent has the dynasty community valued his rise? The DLF Devy Rankings put him at 42nd overall between Oklahoma wide receiver Theo Wease and Ole Miss receiver Elijah Moore. He ranks 29th among 2021 prospects, implying a mid-third round rookie pick value in 1QB leagues. Our devy ADP has him as the 52nd overall prospect, between Georgia RB Kendall Milton and Oregon State receiver Jermar Jefferson.
Expect these values to rise as the community catches up to Marshall’s hot start. He could eventually creep into the late first round of rookie drafts.
NFL WEEK Five
Justin Herbert, QB LAC
Through five weeks, some dynasty managers have boosted Herbert to their rookie QB1. They have a case despite Joe Burrow’s hot start.
Herbert has been productive despite honing in on his WR1, Keenan Allen, and losing his RB1, Austin Ekeler.
NFL Target Share Leaders
Keenan Allen – 37.1%
DeAndre Hopkins – 34.6%
Adam Thielen – 33%
Darren Waller – 29.2%
Odell Beckham – 29.1%
Alvin Kamara – 27.6%
Terry McLaurin – 27.5%
Marquise Brown – 26.5%
Allen Robinson – 26.5%
Amari Cooper – 25.9%
Tyler Lockett – 25.2%— Matt Gajewski (@Matt_Gajewski) October 6, 2020
Allen should not miss significant time after leaving the Saints game with back spasms.
Since taking over as the starter in week two, Herbert is fantasy’s QB8 and is a viable weekly starter. He is averaging 35 pass attempts and nearly 300 pass yards per game. At that pace, he would have ranked 18th in the NFL in pass attempts last season.
Statistics from Sports Reference.
The Chargers are winless through four weeks but wins are not a quarterback statistic. In his first four NFL starts, Herbert’s efficiency (as measured by adjusted yards per attempt) is equal to the level at which he played throughout college (8.8 AY/A).
While his mobility and athleticism are not producing rushing points, they are contributing to his passing production. This play does not happen without those traits.
the rookie Justin Herbert LEADS THE NFL when pressured in adjusted completion rate and efficiency
better than Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers etc
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) October 13, 2020
He is ranked 129th in the DLF Dynasty Rankings as QB13 between Carson Wentz and Baker Mayfield. His ADP has held steady since the conclusion of last season but expect that to change.
In superflex/2QB ADP, he is the QB24 – a market inefficiency that should quickly correct itself.
The Dynasty Trade Analyzer combines rankings, ADP and actual MyFantasyLeague trades to arrive at player and rookie pick values. In 1QB leagues, it values Herbert in line with a 2021 second-round pick plus a third-rounder. In superflex/2QB leagues it should take roughly a random first plus a low second-round rookie pick to trade for him.
Finally, the Dynasty Trade Finder pulls real-world MFL trades according to custom parameters. Recent trades involving Herbert include the following.
- 10-13-20: Justin Herbert and WR Mike Williams, LAC for RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (superflex)
- 10-11-20: Justin Herbert for Year 2020 round one draft pick (1QB)
- 10-11-20: Justin Herbert for Year 2021 round one draft pick and Year 2021 round four draft pick (1QB)
- 10-11-20: Justin Herbert for Year 2021 round one draft pick (SF)
- 10-09-20: Justin Herbert for WR Jarvis Landry, CLE (1QB)
I hope you enjoyed this edition of the Cornerstone Report. Find me on Twitter at @threedownhack as we uncover the next cornerstone players.
- 20/20: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama - February 26, 2022
- Cornerstone Report: Week Nine - November 12, 2021
- Cornerstone Report: Week Eight - November 5, 2021
