Tuesday Transactions: Week Six
The craziness with last-minute game movement, lineup swaps and matchup changes dominated the NFL headlines in week five. The reality became evident that anything is not final until we see the ball kickoff and a stark reminder to expect the unexpected. With that said, week five feels like a very pivotal week to start deciding the direction of your dynasty squad.
Here are five transactions to consider:
Drew Lock, QB DEN – Buy
The postponed game in week five may bring a small buy window for Lock as recency bias will not come into play. Lock has missed back-to-back games with a throwing shoulder injury and theoretically, is past his bye. The missed week also allows Denver to potentially get Noah Fant and KJ Hamler healthy and Phillip Lindsay should be 100 percent when play resumes against the Patriots next weekend.
After struggling in week one and leaving early in week two, a dynasty owner who has been waiting on Lock may be frustrated and feeling pessimistic about their playoff chances. If you lost Dak Prescott, consider inquiring about this player and see if you can buy from an owner who questions his future. The craziness of 2020, his own injury and Courtland Sutton’s injury could just buy the second-year quarterback another guaranteed audition year as the future cornerstone starter in Denver.
The Move – Start with a 2021 second-round pick plus a usable wide receiver or running back to acquire Lock in superflex. In some circumstances, I would still pay a late first-round pick and easily a first-round pick in 2022. I want Lock now before he gets back on the field. Given the current quarterback landscape, his job security is feeling safer and safer rest of season and heading into 2021.
DK Metcalf, WR SEA – Sell
What? How can you recommend selling the next big thing at wide receiver, tied to the favorite for NFL MVP in 2020? The answer to that is the question itself. Any wide receiver who elevates to the point where you can cash out for the perceived price Metcalf is fetching, any dynasty owner with him on their roster should be inquiring what they can get.
Despite being the WR4 on the season, Metcalf is tied for 12th in the league in targets and sports a 23 percent market share. Not bad, but nothing to consider a tier above many other receivers in the same tier. His current market perception is largely tied to his age (22) and situation (tied to Russell Wilson) and the assumption that production is exponential and will continue to grow. Quite simply, I am not sure how much higher he can go and if you can fetch first-round startup value back, explore it.
The Move – Pivot off Metcalf for a future first-round pick and another wide receiver. Jerry Jeudy and Justin Jefferson are certainly names in play to make this move and it is possible you can ask for even more than one of these players plus a first-round pick. In a league with three starting receivers and at least two flex spots, I am doing my due diligence and shopping DK.
Antonio Gibson, RB WAS – Buy
Reality has set in for Washington with Dwayne Haskins likely done in DC and the team facing the likelihood that Kyle Allen (or Alex Smith) will be under center for the rest of the season. Dynasty owners who drafted Gibson are feeling lukewarm about him and may listen to offers if they feel like they can cash out and make a small profit given the current situation.
Allen targeted the running back at an extremely high rate in 2019 and Gibson has back to back five target games. As he continues to grow into being a full-time ball carrier, the Washington Football Team is staring at a roster with many more needs heading into next year’s running back depleted draft. Gibson is parallel to David Montgomery in 2019 and this should keep his job security intact through the off-season.
The Move – Running backs will go early and not often next spring and if you can ship off a late first-round pick for Gibson in superflex, I am making the move. This pick will likely be in a range with a bundle of wide receivers and we know how abundant the position is at this point. Gibson will provide you with a top 24 floor the rest of season and will sure up your depth at a growingly scarce position heading into next year.
Raheem Mostert, RB SF – Sell
Last week it was Jerick McKinnon and this week it is his teammate. After returning in week five and assuming an even bigger role than he left, Mostert will be a popular buy among dynasty owners who are hurting at running back. He ranks second in the NFL to Alvin Kamara in fantasy points per snap and the situation in San Francisco has a specific stigma that attracts prospective buyers.
In reality, San Francisco is nothing like they were a year ago when they were the most-efficient running team in the league and Mostert’s second-half production carried them to the Super Bowl. They are passing at a much higher rate and are looking like a long shot for the playoffs. Mostert is still a 28-year-old journeyman and given how running backs are treated today, the floor could collapse at any point.
The Move – Be willing to move Mostert for a 2021 second-round pick in superflex and be sure to get another running back in the deal. Another playable handcuff like Latavius Murray or Phillip Lindsay plus the pick would be where I would start.
Byron Pringle, WR KC – Add
This one comes specifically for start-three-WR leagues with at least two flex spots. Sammy Watkins left the Chiefs’ week five game with a hamstring injury and is likely out multiple weeks. Pringle saw ten snaps, one target which converted to a 23-yard catch after Watkins departed against the Raiders and this performance is unlikely to stand out in the box score.
The Chiefs primarily use four wide receivers and while everyone will flock to Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson, Pringle gets you a piece of this offense for free. His week five performance in 2019 after Watkins left the game with injury shows you what the offense can do for any receiver playing a significant role.
The Move – Consider adding Pringle in leagues with more than 27 roster spots and feel free to sell off a fringe receiver like Greg Ward, Keelan Cole or Josh Reynolds to make room.
CONCLUSION
Through five weeks, it feels like it is time for many dynasty owners to veer toward a specific lane. Whether the injury bug has taken its toll, or the exhaustion of the season is becoming too much, starting planning for the big picture before the rest of the managers in your league lock in their direction. One major takeaway? Stay flexible. Week five was a rude awakening and the craziness has just begun. The winners in 2020 will be survivors of the fittest.
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