Sunday Six Pack: Week Five
How in the world is it already week five of the NFL season? Time flies when you’re having fun and stressing out over trades and lineup decisions, I guess. Though there are a million things you could watch for this weekend (into next week), I have a few things I will be most interested in. Let’s dive right in.
Hate the Drake
Kenyan Drake has been pretty bad this year so far. Carrying an ADP of RB20 entering the season, you cannot be happy with his production thus far in 2020.
His week one performance was okay, but things have quickly and steadily descended into a bad, bad place since that time. On the season, Drake is the RB35 with 9.6 fantasy points per game, tied with teammate Chase Edmonds in scoring. The problem is that Edmonds is averaging 1.16 points per opportunity (tied for seventh-highest), compared to Drake’s 0.53 points per opportunity.
Whereas you have to be ecstatic with Edmonds’ production, you didn’t draft Drake with the expectation that he would be a low-end RB3. Both Drake and Edmonds have been mediocre as pure runners this season, but Edmonds has hogged most of the running back targets. Based on how Drake’s usage after joining the Cardinals via trade last year, you had to expect more of a role in the passing game in 2020.
In eight games last year with the Cardinals, Drake averaged 4.4 targets per game, but he’s barely seen that many targets so far this season. Drake has been targeted just five times through four weeks, while Edmonds has been targeted 17 times.
Drake has also seen his percentage of snaps played drop every week of the season, while Edmonds just played on a season-high (37%) of offensive plays this past week. This week’s matchup against the Jets is an absolute smash spot for Drake, with the Jets giving up the ninth-most fantasy points per week (24.3) to the running back position, per FFToday. If Drake fails to perform, his fantasy outlook is hazy.
From a real football perspective, the Jets allow the ninth-most rushing yards per game, so Drake’s status as the starter in Arizona could also be jeopardized if he doesn’t produce. Don’t forget — Drake, who will be 27 years old in 2021, is only on a one-year deal, and the Cardinals can simply move on from him if he doesn’t look like he’s the back of their immediate future.
We need more, Moore!
When Teddy Bridgewater signed with the Panthers this off-season, many fantasy players expected the good times to roll for DJ Moore. After averaging nine targets a game last year and now being tied to check-down, Teddy had some of us dreaming of 10, 11, maybe even 12 targets per game.
I promise you that this isn’t just a figment of my imagination. Moore was the WR5 in dynasty mock drafts held in August of this year. After his excellent sophomore season, when he averaged 15.5 fantasy points per game, Moore has seen his production dip to 11.7 fantasy points per game. But just citing his drop in per-game scoring doesn’t paint the picture of how disappointing Moore’s season has been.
Per Fantasy Points’ Graham Barfield:
- DJ Moore has been held under 10 fantasy points in three of four games so far this year.
- Last year, Moore was held under 10 fantasy points twice in 14 healthy games.
So what exactly is going on down in Carolina? A few things are conspiring against Moore’s production thus far. He is averaging one fewer target, 1.3 fewer receptions, and 6.3 fewer yards per game than last year. His 56.3% catch rate is the lowest of his career, and it pales in comparison to previous year’s 64.4% catch rate. The decrease in catch rate could be due to an increase in his aDOT from 11.08 last year to 12.59 per game this year.
The addition of Robby Anderson has also done more to affect Moore than most of us believed it would in the off-season. Primarily thought of as a deep threat entering this year, Anderson has encroached on Moore’s area of the field with an aDOT of just 9.12. Or it could be the standard adjustment period that goes with getting a new quarterback, offensive coordinator, and offensive scheme.
If things continue like this, you might have to adjust your expectations for Moore for the rest of the 2020 season. Long-term though, the outlook remains bright for him. He’s the same player who was an elite prospect coming into the league and put up historic numbers in his first two seasons. Don’t hit the panic button just yet like the dufus below:
If you ain't in full panic mode over D.J. Moore you lying
— Shanesays (@ShaneIsTheWorst) October 4, 2020
Joe Mixon back (again)?
After several weeks of disappointing performances, Mixon had a monster game last week. Exploding for 181 total yards and three touchdowns, Mixon dropped 42.1 fantasy points on his way to the RB1 finish for the week.
Through the first three weeks of the season, it appeared Zac Taylor forgot that Joe Mixon is a franchise running back. Entering the week four’s game against the Jaguars, Mixon had been out-targeted on the season, 15-9, by Giovani Bernard. Mixon was also ceding way too many snaps to Bernard during the first three weeks, limiting his opportunity for scoring.
But in week four, Taylor came to his senses and Bernard saw his smallest snap share of the season while Mixon saw his highest. Mixon was finally featured in the passing game as well with six targets, while Bernard had zero targets. Oddly enough, this feels like groundhog day. Over the first eight weeks of the 2019 season, Mixon averaged just 12.6 rushing attempts per game compared to the 22.1 he averaged over the final eight weeks.
Perhaps Taylor has simply learned his lesson earlier than he did during the 2019 season, and it will be smooth sailing the rest of the way for Mixon. However, this week’s game against the Ravens (ninth fewest points allowed to running backs) will be considerable harder sledding than last week.
The Hunt for the RB1
The 2019 season may have lulled into us into a false sense of security regarding running back injuries.
So far in 2020, we have already lost Marlon Mack and Saquon Barkley for the season and Christian McCaffrey for several weeks. Both Le’Veon Bell and Raheem Mostert, expected to play this week, have also missed time with injuries. This past Sunday we lost Austin Ekeler and Nick Chubb for what will be extended periods of time.
While the Chargers will get by with Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley sharing the load, in Cleveland it is the Kareem Hunt show (apologies to D’Ernest Johnson). Sharing the backfield with Nick Chubb has hardly been a detriment to Hunt as he enters Sunday’s games as the RB7 in points per game. Without Chubb around to share touches with, there is every reason to believe that Hunt could be the RB1 for however long Chubb is out.
The last time Hunt had a backfield to himself, with the Chiefs, he was the RB8 scoring 20.9 points per week through 11 games in 2018. The Browns have leaned into the rushing attack this year averaging 34.8 rushing attempts per game, the second most per game in the league. Between the additional rushing attempts – including carries within the five-yard line where Chubb had a team-leading four attempts – and his customary targets in the passing game, Hunt could put up some huge weeks, though this week he does face a tough Colts defense.
Hey Antonio!
Kyle Allen might target Antonio Gibson 120 times a game. Okay, that’s probably a slight exaggeration, I do tend to be a tad hyperbolic.
While he might not see 120 targets a game, I do expect Gibson to be heavily involved in the passing attack going forward. The insertion of Kyle Allen into the starting QB role for the Football Team can mean nothing but good things for Gibson.
During Allen’s 15 games as the starting Carolina Panthers QB, he targeted Christian McCaffrey 8.3 times per game. Note that one of these games was the final game of the 2018 regular season when McCaffrey only played 14% of the offensive snaps.
I’m not comparing Gibson to McCaffrey, but that comparison has been made in the past. You the savvy DLF reader already know that Gibson was a wide receiver in college and had 38 receptions during his final season at Memphis.
While it’s been encouraging to see Gibson take over as the primary ball-carrier, it was even more encouraging seeing him targeted five times last week.
Statistics from Pro Football Reference.
If Gibson sees anything approaching the target volume that Allen’s last running back received, then we could see his value (and production) shoot up in our dynasty leagues.
Pivot, Pivot, Pivot, Pivot, Pivot, PIVOT!
I’m not breaking any news when I note that this season is unlike any other during our lifetimes. Last week we saw the Steelers and Titans game canceled and to be played at a later date, and the Chiefs and Patriots game moved to Monday night from its original Sunday slate, due to positive COVID tests.
The Titans, seemingly on a one-team quest to wreck the entire season, continue to flaunt any logical, rational actions and have yet to contain their outbreak, seeing Corey Davis, Adam Humphries, among others test positive. At the moment, this week’s Titans vs. Bills game is scheduled for Tuesday night, assuming no more positive tests. The Patriots vs. Broncos has been moved to Monday night, due to New England having a couple of players test positive, giving us two weeks in a row of double-header MNF action.
Most of the leagues I play in have allowed league owners to nominate backup players, in case games are cancelled. Thank you to all the league commissioners for adapting to this unique season.
You need to make sure you’re prepared to pivot quickly. That means if you have players in your WR/RB/TE spots, and their games are in danger of being cancelled, then you need to move those players to your flex spots. I’m sure you keep an eye on all the inactives on Sunday morning, but you need to make sure you go ahead and set up your alerts on your league to let you know if you have an inactive player in your lineup, for any last (literal) inactives.
You are a DLF reader, so I know you’re a cut above the regular old dynasty player, but just don’t forget to keep grinding, even during game day, since it could help you pull out a win.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Pivoting Away from Jonathan Taylor - August 29, 2023
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Kyle Pitts, Brock Purdy and Roster Construction - August 22, 2023
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Late-Round Stashes and More - August 15, 2023
