Rookie Report Card: Justin Herbert and Antonio Gibson
Each week throughout the season, I’ll cover at least two rookies in the Rookie Report Card and try to always include the biggest performers from that particular week. On top of reviewing my expectations for each player coming into the league and how well he’s lived up to those expectations at the NFL level to this point, I’ll grade the player in three categories. Those categories are performance to date, rookie season potential and long term upside.
The series continues in week four with Justin Herbert and Antonio Gibson.
Justin Herbert, QB LAC
Week Four Stats: 20/25 passing, 290 yards, three touchdowns, one interception, five carries, 14 yards
Despite being the third quarterback off the board in the 2020 NFL draft, Herbert was seen by many as the most talented signal-caller in the class.
In his four seasons at Oregon, Herbert piled up more than 10,000 passing yards and 95 touchdown passes while also rushing for 560 yards and 13 more scores on the ground. Known for his ability to read defenses and identify weaknesses in the secondary, he left the Ducks as a relatively polished prospect with the size (6’6”, 235 pounds), athleticism and arm strength to be a franchise quarterback.
In the pocket, Herbert is decisive and has a very quick release. His arm strength rivals any quarterback prospect that has entered the league in recent years and his unwavering confidence throwing downfield profiles perfectly to a vertical passing game in the NFL.
When Herbert is flushed out of the pocket, he instantly becomes a dual-threat quarterback. Although he’s fast enough (4.68-second 40-yard dash) to beat linemen and linebackers to the corner he always keeps his eyes downfield and can make throws from any platform. When forced to tuck the ball, he’s shown good instincts to know exactly where the first-down marker is, when to slide and when to challenge a defensive back or set him up to cut back for extra yardage.
While many question if his accuracy is consistent enough and if his inability to take some off of touch passes would hold Herbert back, those weaknesses weren’t enough to keep him from being a top-ten pick in the draft.
Though he was expected to sit for much – if not all – of his rookie season behind Tyrod Taylor, Herbert was a consistent late-first round pick in super-flex rookie drafts throughout the summer. Through four weeks, it’s been an excellent investment.
Coming off back-to-back 300-yard, one-touchdown games on the opening two starts of his career, Herbert had his coming out party in week four in Tampa Bay. Completing 80% of his passes, he was decisive and accurate but just as he did in college, he took shots down the field. The 53-yard touchdown to wide receiver Tyron Johnson was perfectly placed in stride and he stood in the face of pressure on the 72-yarder that was dropped right on Jalen Guyton.
That all comes without even mentioning the 19-yard back-shoulder touchdown throw at the end of the first quarter where he stood in against the blitz and faded away to a perfect throw to tight end Donald Parham Jr. He couldn’t have walked it over to the receiver better.
Watching Herbert in his first three starts (where he’s thrown for 931 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions), I can’t help but compare the start to his career to that of Buffalo QB Josh Allen – but with more accuracy. To go along with his passing numbers, he’s tacked on 47 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground.
If Herbert continues to use his athleticism as a weapon, display the accuracy he did in Tampa Bay, and use his arm strength to push the ball down the field, not only will he be a super-flex option to dynasty managers, he’ll catapult himself into lineups in single quarterback leagues sooner rather than later.
Although he has elite upside at his position, it’s probably more likely Herbert settles in as a solid QB1 if he continues to develop in the Los Angeles offense. He should already be considered a solid streaming option in the right matchup.
Antonio Gibson, RB WAS
Week Four Stats: 13 carries, 46 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, four receptions, 82 receiving yards
Entering the NFL draft with just 77 touches in his college career at Memphis, Gibson was an unknown to some. But any player who found pay dirt on 32% of his college opportunities from scrimmage is sure to get the attention of NFL front offices and dynasty owners alike.
An explosive prospect without a traditional position, most wondered if Gibson would primarily play running back or wide receiver on Sundays. It was his burst (4.39-second 40-yard dash) and decision making that made him a running back to Washington when they selected him as the seventh tailback off the board.
While with the Tigers, Gibson displayed incredible playmaking skills as a runner, pass catcher and returner. His ability to set up defenders only cut back on them rivals any prospect that has come out in recent years. That elusiveness along with his long speed, size (6’0”, 225 pounds) and balance to bounce off tacklers without losing momentum made him an electrifying prospect despite an extremely limited collegiate sample size.
In the weeks following the NFL draft, dynasty managers were hesitant to invest heavily in Gibson as he was regularly being taken off the board near the end of the second round of rookie drafts. But as the off-season progressed, news out of Washington (including the release of Derrius Guice and Adrian Peterson), as well as the hype surrounding Gibson’s play in training camp, catapulted into the first round of August rookie drafts.
Since an anticlimactic start to his rookie season where he tallied just 38 yards in week one, Gibson has steadily improved with each game that has passed. In week three, he scored his first career touchdown and on Sunday against a stout Ravens’ defense he accounted for 128 yards from scrimmage and his second score as a pro.
What’s most encouraging is how the Washington coaching staff has utilized Gibson. Despite putting him on the field for just 43% of snaps through four weeks, they’ve maximized his time on the field by utilizing him 47% of the time (44 carries + 12 targets = 56 opportunities in 117 snaps.) Furthermore, they’ve found creative ways to get him the ball. On Sunday alone he lined up all over the field, catching passes out after lining up in the backfield, out of the slot and out wide.
Even more importantly, he’s begun getting valuable touches. Each of his two touchdowns have been two-yard plunges at the goal line, which adds to Gibson’s short and long-term upside.
Overall, Gibson profiles as an electrifying playmaker who can turn any touch into a big play for dynasty managers. As long as he’s getting enough opportunities, he’ll have a high floor to go along with the sky-high ceiling his explosiveness provides.
- League Tycoon: Dynasty Salary Cap Fantasy Football - December 15, 2023
- Final Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Wide Receivers, Part Two - March 22, 2023
- 2023 NFL Scouting Combine: Offensive Player Dynasty Review - March 10, 2023
