Flip or Stick?

Shane Manila

One of the hardest decisions in dynasty fantasy football is what to do with players who have exceeded the expectations we had for them. Should you flip these players and attempt to “cash-out,” or do you ride the wave wherever it may take you, and have them stick to your roster, knowing that their value and production could bottom out at any moment? On a personal level, I trade away any players who hit unexpectedly, but that doesn’t mean that’s always the correct call.

One caveat to my “verdict” — you should still look to see what you can obtain in a trade for the players listed below. Even if I suggest a player should stick on your roster, no player should ever be off-limits if the price is right. One additional caveat — my thoughts are subjective. Yes, they will be stat-based, but they will still incorporate my own thoughts on what the stats and situations for these players say.

Dalton Schultz, TE DAL

Since being inserted into the starting tight end role after Blake Jarwin’s season-ending torn ACL, Schultz has balled out. His first week as the starter (week two), he finished as the TE7 on the week with 21.8 fantasy points. He followed that up with a TE19 week three, but then bounced back in week four with the TE4 finish. He’s seen ten, six, and eight targets in the past three weeks.

Using the DLF Snap Count App, we can see that this past week Schultz saw a season-high in snaps and snap share percentage — playing in nearly 77% of the offensive snaps.

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While Schultz’s targets and snap share are in line with what you want from the TE1 on your roster, just note that he’s not being hyper-targeted. In the three games he’s been the starter for Dallas, his target share has been 16.6%, which is fine, it’s just not elite. If the Cowboys defense can improve even slightly from horrendous to putrid, then their passing attempts will likely decrease from the 50 attempts per game they’ve averaged through the first four weeks.

As much as I’d like to tell you to flip Schultz, I can’t right now. Even when a player is exceeding expectations, that doesn’t mean everyone in your league is going to come clamoring for his rights. Perusing the DLF Trade Finder, it’s evident that Schultz is worth more scoring points on your roster than he is on the open market.

If you are adamant about moving Schultz, this week could be your last window for the next several weeks. Next week, the Cowboys face the Giants, who give up the ninth fewest points per game to the tight end position, and the Cardinals who rank middle of the pack (17th) the following week. If you like to live on the wild side and want to see if his value can increase a bit more, Schultz then faces the Washington Football Team and Philadelphia Eagles, who give up the fifth and second-most fantasy points to the tight end position.

Verdict: Stick

Hopefully, Dallas’s defense continues to be a horror show and Schultz can see about eight targets a game, which can only increase his trade value. For now though, unless you can get a second-round rookie pick (even kicking in a fourth or so on your side), I’m going to hold onto Schultz.

Myles Gaskin, RB MIA

Since week one, Gaskin has been the back to own in Miami. Using the DLF Snap Count App (yes, again) we can see that Gaskin has simply dominated the snaps for the Dolphins.

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Through the first four weeks, Gaskin is your RB26 — not bad for a player with a startup ADP of RB68. He’s scored at least 9.2 fantasy points every week this season and crested 14 points in both weeks three and four. He’s getting all of the work, excluding the touchdowns, too. Gaskin has an opportunity share (rushing attempts + targets) of 60% and has monopolized the Dolphins running back targets with 20 of 29 targets (69%) coming his way.

Making his production even more impressive is the fact that, per Fantasydata.com, Gaskin has played some of the top run defenses in fantasy points allowed in three of the first four weeks. The Patriots, Bills, and Seahawks all rank in the top eight in the fewest points allowed to the running back position. His road gets no easier, though, as he faces the 49ers who rank first, and the Broncos who rank third in fewest points allowed to running backs the next two weeks.

Gaskin’s advanced efficiency metrics are pretty ordinary too. Per Fantasydata.com (again), he ranks 31st in fantasy points per opportunity, 27th in juke rate, and 34th in yards created per attempt. This points to Gaskin’s production being based on volume more than talent. He could see an uptick in scoring if he stops getting vultured by Jordan Howard at the goal-line, but Howard has been successful in that role scoring on three of eight rushing attempts inside the five-yard line — so I’m not so sure Gaskin will see an increase in goal-line attempts.

Verdict: Flip

While Gaskin has been more than you could have ever dreamed when you were drafting him in the 17th round over the summer, I’m ready to cash out. His value feels like it could bottom out with a bad game next week, or even another mediocre game. Three trades caught my eye using the DLF Trade Finder, which I’ve shared below. If you can receive similar value in your league, I think it’s a smash accept.

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Robert Tonyan, TE GB

Tonyan was all types of buzzy this off-season. You may have heard a few times on Monday night that he and George Kittle are super buds and trained together this off-season. The Packers’ coaching staff was impressed as well, and the third-year undrafted free agent leap-frogged second year, third-round pick Jace Sternberger for the starting tight end role.

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As you can see above, Tonyan has dominated the snaps battle over Sternberger. He is vastly out-targeting (14 to 5) and out-producing Sternberger in every counting stat.

But, and you knew there was a but coming, I’m selling Tonyan. As impressive as his last three games have been, there’s no way Tonyan should continue his touchdown scoring pace. Five touchdowns on 13 receptions is a touchdown rate of 38%, which would make 2018 Eric Ebron blush.

Even after his Monday night explosion, on six targets, Tonyan’s target share still hovers at just over 10%. Even with the loss of Allen Lazard, there’s no reason to believe that Tonyan is going to see more targets than Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (who actually leads the team in targets). Tonyan’s touchdown scoring is going to regress to the mean and you’ll be left with a player seeing three to six targets a week, which is okay, but certainly not the TE2 type of production he’s given you so far this season.

Verdict: Flip

I’m shooting for a second-round rookie pick. I know that’s aiming high, but just because I’m advocating that you flip Tonyan doesn’t mean I want you to do so cheaply. If you need to throw in a third or fourth rounder to get that second, that’s the move.

Thank you for taking the time to read this again. If you have any other players you’re looking for an opinion on, please feel free to let me know in the comments or on Twitter @ShaneIsTheWorst.

shane manila