Paradigm Shift: What these Running Back Contracts Mean for Dynasty Leagues
In the not too distant past, it looked like the 2021 running back free agency class was going to be historic. Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Kareem Hunt, and Derrick Henry were all poised to hit the open market together with an opportunity to reshape the NFL and dynasty fantasy football landscape. Instead, each of those backs re-upped with their current teams — for serious money.
Next year’s running back class is now much less impressive with Aaron Jones, Leonard Fournette, and Kenyan Drake leading the way. That’s still a decent top of the market, but it’s nothing compared to what could have been.
Also in the not too distant past, I wrote an article that implored you to trade running backs once they hit their age-25(ish) seasons. But as the facts on the ground change, it’s our job as dynasty players to interpret these changes and decide how to move forward.
If you’re anything like me, you prefer choices to be kept simple —in the “if this, then that” vein. It was comforting for me to look at the running back position and default to “trade away before age 26 and he self-destructs” mode. With all the second contracts being given out to running backs, though, it’s time to revisit that thought process.
The Past Speaks to Us
As noted by a couple of commenters on my article about trading running backs, it would not be unprecedented for “older” running backs to produce. My article focused on the four years encompassing 2016 – 2019, but the four years prior to that do seem to tell a different tale.
During the 2012 season, half of the top 12 running backs were at least 26 years old (per-game, PPR scoring). In 2019, there was one singular running back in the top 12. In 2013, just two of the top 12 running backs were 25 or younger. This trend largely continued through the 2015 season —“older” running backs were predominant among the top 12 every season.
Players like Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, Fred Jackson, Frank Gore, and Adrian Peterson were all able to produce top-12 seasons at age 26 and beyond. These elder statesmen were given second, and sometimes even third, contracts and the opportunity to produce — and continued to do just that. Perhaps the lesson is that outliers are outliers for a reason, and maybe you should bank on them continuing to be outliers.
Or maybe the reason “older” running backs continued to produce from 2012 through 2016 is because the running backs drafted during that period just weren’t very good. (Note —I’m not saying every running back drafted during this era wasn’t good, but as a whole, these classes were especially bad.)
The 2012 draft class featured Trent Richardson, Lamar Miller, and Doug Martin. Miller and Martin had success, but Richardson flamed out after two years in the league. The next draft class gave us Le’Veon Bell – who provided multiple years of RB1 production – and Eddie Lacy who ate himself out of any long-term success after his first two productive seasons.
The 2014 class was devoid of anyone of note except for Devonta Freeman. Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon were the only elite running backs to come from the 2015 class, though Jay Ajayi had one glorious 2016 season we can all reminisce over. This bad running back era ended with the 2016 class and the drafting of Ezekiel Elliott and Derick Henry. Again, there were certainly some productive running backs drafted during this era, but not many.
Sea Change
The 2017 class ushered in a new golden age of running backs. Christian McCaffrey, Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, James Conner, Marlon Mack, Aaron Jones, Chris Carson, Tarik Cohen, and undrafted Austin Ekeler all entered the league from that draft class.
Just how good has the 2017 running back class been? Per FFToday, three of the top ten running backs in per-game PPR scoring that season came from the rookie class. If you choose to include Dalvin Cook, who played just four games, it would have been four of the top ten. That class has done nothing but continue to produce since that stellar first season in the league. Just take a look at the table below, provided to me by the data geniuses from DLF.
Yeah, that’s pretty good. Last year, seven of the top 12 scoring running backs (points per game) came from that 2017 class, again leading credence to the strength of this class. This year, it’s four of the top 12. Again, maybe the reason these running backs produced at such a young age had much more to do with them being uber-talented as opposed to being young. While the 2018 and 2019 classes weren’t as stacked as the 2017 class, we still got Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs, and Miles Sanders from them.
If you’re looking for something to hang your hat on when it comes to top-scoring running backs, or a takeaway on what to look for, look at pass-catching. In each season from 2012 through 2014, at least eight of the top 12 scoring running backs saw at least 50 targets. The 2015 season was an anomaly with just half of the top 12 hitting that threshold. In both 2016 and 2017, nine of the top 12 hit that mark, ten of 12 did so in 2018, and eight of 12 in 2019. Thanks to JJ Zachariason, we know that a target is worth more than a rushing attempt in fantasy football, and this further drives home that point.
Now What?
My first takeaway from all of this is that I’ll probably stop making grand pronouncements. As much as I would like everything to fall neatly into “if this, then that” scenarios, fantasy football won’t always be so simplistic. The sheer number of running backs from the 2017 class that have been given second contracts means that their window for production is a bit wider than I initially thought it would be.
Those players should see at least another two seasons to produce. While injuries are always going to be a concern for running backs, if for no other reason than the volume at which they touch the ball, I am likely going to fade age as the primary concern when considering drafting or trading for running backs going forward.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Pivoting Away from Jonathan Taylor - August 29, 2023
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Kyle Pitts, Brock Purdy and Roster Construction - August 22, 2023
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Late-Round Stashes and More - August 15, 2023
