Tuesday Transactions: Week Five
After a rocky start to the week and the first COVID-19 impact to the 2020 season rearing its ugly head, we managed to revert back to a level of normalcy by the end of the slate and 15 games ended up in the books. What can we learn from 25 percent of the season being in the books?
Here are five transactions you need to think about ahead of week five.
Michael Gallup, WR DAL – Buy
This one might surprise many. Why Gallup? With CeeDee Lamb cementing himself as a top ten receiver in dynasty and Amari Cooper leading the NFL in fantasy points at the quarter-way mark, many will write him off as third fiddle and getting squeezed out. Not so fast. Players get hurt. Game scripts change. With Dak Prescott on pace for an NFL record 804 pass attempts, I want every single piece of this offense I can find. Gallup can be started weekly in leagues where you can start five or more receivers but gets elevated much higher with any attrition on the offense.
The Move – Look to flip a 2021 second-round pick in superflex for Gallup or move your injured Parris Campbell or Courtland Sutton in a deal to acquire him. He is a free agent after 2021 and has already posted a top 24 season. The value can only go up from here.
Joshua Kelley, RB LAC – Sell
With Austin Ekeler going down for at least a month, Kelley looks to build on a few weeks of early hype and will ascend into a much bigger role. The good news? The Chargers’ defense is decimated, and Justin Herbert has proven willing to throw the ball at an above-average rate. Although Justin Jackson looks to take a much larger role, Kelley should see the bulk of the early-down and goal-line carries with his extra snaps naturally resulting in more targets. The buzz before week four and now the injury will have Kelley going for first-round price range. In a PPR league, cash out.
The Move – As a caveat, in a league with points per carry, do not shop Kelley. In a superflex league with PPR scoring, I am cashing out for any first-round pick and fill-in RB. The fill-in RB is key. A player like Jamaal Williams or Darrel Williams is an easy ask which gives you replacement upside as the season goes on.
Matt Breida, RB MIA – Buy
This one is going to be a bit tricky. The Breida owner is likely waiting for something to break in the Miami backfield. After all, they likely have no choice after Myles Gaskin surprisingly took over the lead role and has yet to relinquish touches to Breida or Jordan Howard. He will not overtake Gaskin, but despite playing only 24 percent of the snaps to Gaskin’s 65, the touch share was almost equal (13 for Gaskin and 12 for Breida) and the production for the former Husky was his worst of the season. We know Howard is not impacting this role and in that case, I want the next man up who I have seen something from before.
The Move – Approaching the Breida owner directly is likely going to get you a higher price than expected. I would acquire his services for a future third-round pick but if that will not cut it, ask for him as a throw-in deal where you sell another volatile back like Latavius Murray or Chase Edmonds at their cost. With this type of deal, you are simply making a bet against the odds.
Jerick McKinnon, RB SF – Sell
What a fantastic story. After numerous backfield injuries and a fascinating recovery story himself, McKinnon finally got his chance the last two weeks to lead the San Francisco backfield. He did not disappoint owners, posting 39.4 PPR points in 38 touches and is likely locked into a third-down role plus even after the return of Raheem Mostert. With that said, the window to sell is entirely situational and with one more injury, the floor likely collapses entirely as the situation will change after 2020. Capitalize on the hype of the Niners backfield and other dynasty owners wanting as many pieces as possible.
The Move – A first-round pick is out of the question but flipping McKinnon for an equally-leveraged handcuff and a second-round pick or a wide receiver equivalent is very possible. Target the Austin Ekeler or Nick Chubb owner and see if they are willing to part with a prospect who has yet to ascend. Mecole Hardman or Denzel Mims might be attainable targets.
Kaden Smith, TE NYG – Add
This one comes specifically for tight end premium leagues and after looking at his eight targets in four games, you might wonder why. Truthfully? Expect the unexpected. Evan Engram has never been able to be healthy and the Giants have faced a brutal schedule. Combine a team searching for weapons, a starting tight end facing an uncertain future in New York and a second-year youngster who met the rookie thresholds, make sure Smith is not on waivers in your tight end premium leagues with under 28 roster spots.
The Move – Ship off a guy like Jimmy Graham or Greg Olsen for a pick, free up a roster spot and add Smith. The “in your line up” equity you could get with Smith if Engram goes down is likely the same as holding those previously mentioned veterans and the upside for the future is much greater.
CONCLUSION
We saw a mix of everything in week four. An additional five receivers jumped into the mix and posted a top 36 season. The trend continues that wide receiver is still the most replaceable position in dynasty. Now that we are at the quarter-mile mark, start taking a hard look at how prepared your squad is heading into the scheduled by weeks and determine which direction you want to go. Can you withstand the injuries the rest of the way? The honeymoon period is over and it is time to start making some serious moves.
- Four Tight Ends to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 23, 2023
- Four Wide Receivers to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 16, 2023
- Four Running Backs to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 9, 2023
