The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the DLF mailbag; the article series that answers *your* questions in long-form. It can be difficult to give a detailed response to your questions on Twitter so this series is designed to do just that. Each week we’ll do a deep-dive on the questions you have been rolling around in your dynasty mind. If you have something you’d like discussed in this format, please send me a message on twitter @MattPriceFF and include #AskDLF in your tweet.
Let’s get into it!
@Garret_Lane asks…
What are your thoughts on JuJu Smith-Schuster? Is he a centerpiece on a rebuild?
Absolutely! I’m still #TeamJuJu and we can’t forget how productive he was the first two seasons of his career. He’s still only 24 years old and is still a few years away from the historical prime age for wide receiver production, so he’ll be fantasy-relevant for quite some time. I will say though, it’s getting tougher to ignore the presence of Diontae Johnson.
Before Johnson was injured in week three, he out-targeted Smith-Schuster 10-6 and 13-8 in weeks one and two. As they say, “there’s a lot of football left” so it remains to be seen if Johnson will be the “WR1” in terms of target share when all is said and done, but with this small sample size, it appears that could be the case.
That doesn’t mean Smith-Schuster isn’t going to be valuable and productive for a very long time; it just means he isn’t going to be the WR2 overall like he was in startup drafts last September.
Meanwhile, Johnson’s value has risen from WR82 to WR37 over the same timeframe. October mocks have just begun and I’m guessing we see another dramatic rise, perhaps as high as the top 24.
In terms of trade value, Smith-Schuster’s price may be at an all-time low. Over at the Dynasty Trade Finder, you can check out some actual trades that have taken place. Here are some recent examples:
- Todd Gurley straight up for Smith-Schuster – I can’t imagine this offer gets accepted too often but we should be all-in at this price
- Josh Brown and Allen Robinson for Smith-Schuster – This one frees up a roster spot and lets you buy back some years at the position.
- Josh Jacobs for Smith-Schuster and a 2021 first-round pick – This one is great especially if rebuilding because it lets you move your short-term asset (RB) into a longer-term asset (WR) and gets you a future pick which will only increase in value.
Smith-Schuster isn’t a top-five startup pick anymore but in all honesty, no wide receivers are. It’s a running back world and as long as there are five or more elite running backs, that isn’t going to change. That doesn’t mean he isn’t a player to build around though. He is a rock-solid fantasy option who can anchor your receiver core for years to come.
@mongerlumber asks…
What are your thoughts on JK Dobbins? I took him 1.03 in the rookie draft but the usage is not where you would want it to be. As a contender would you look to flip for Aaron Jones types or just hold and ride it out for the future?
Honestly, I’m going the other direction and buying up every copy of Dobbins I can get my hands on. In fact, you can see in the DLF Trade Finder, that I recently moved Travis Kelce and a future second and third for him. I’m placing a bet on Dobbins forcing his way into more opportunities. When you watch him next to Mark Ingram, it’s pretty obvious how much more juice he has than the veteran and to me, it’s just a matter of time before his workload increases. Once he has a blowup game he’ll be nearly untouchable. Have you tried trading for Jonathan Taylor recently? With an increased workload, Dobbins will join him in that tier. 21-year-old elite running back prospects who hit are as close as you can get to fantasy gold.
If you want to move into the Aaron Jones range I think it’s fine. It’s clear his role is safe for this season and he has week-winning upside. Just be aware of the future. Jones may force the Packers into re-signing him, but on paper, it doesn’t seem likely. He could end up in a worse situation and you’re also giving up four years of age-based production.
If I was going to move away from Dobbins, I’d be looking to add something to get up in the Miles Sanders and Josh Jacobs area. The DLF Trade Analyzer shows them being about 100 points apart and recommends adding a 2020 second-round pick to Dobbins to your offer. I’m guessing you might have to give up your late first instead but it’s a good starting point. Sanders hasn’t had a huge game yet and is perhaps the most likely second-tier running back to make the leap into tier one. As a bonus, you don’t have to worry about age or contract length quite yet as you do with Jones.
All that being said, I’m doing my best to hold on to JK Dobbins. The Ravens offense is such a perfect fit for his skill-set and I can’t wait to see what he does with an expanded role.
That will do it for this edition of the mailbag! Send in your questions to @MattPriceFF for next week’s piece and include #AskDLF in your tweet.
Creator and Co-host of Dynasty Game night, the fantasy football game show.
Creator and host of the Zookeeper Stories podcast.
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