Rookie Report Card: Justin Jefferson and Brandon Aiyuk
Each week throughout the season, I’ll cover at least two rookies in the Rookie Report Card and try to always include the biggest performers from that particular week. On top of reviewing my expectations for each player coming into the league and how well he’s lived up to those expectations at the NFL level to this point, I’ll grade the player in three categories. Those categories are performance to date, rookie season potential and long term upside.
The series continues in week two with a couple of wide receivers with big upside, Justin Jefferson and Brandon Aiyuk.
Justin Jefferson, WR MIN
Week Three Stats: Seven receptions, 175 yards, one touchdown (nine targets)
One of the premier wide receiver prospects in a loaded class, Jefferson spent his time at LSU making countless big plays. Whether uncovering underneath and using his speed after the catch or blazing downfield before making a leaping catch, he entered the draft as a deep threat with solid – although still developing – route-running skills and excellent hands.
Perhaps the best part about Jefferson’s college tape is the incredible above-the-rim catches he made in the clutch. Regularly catching slightly off the mark throws at the highest possible point, he proved to have quite possibly the best catch radius of any receiver in the class. Sideline catches on third down and dazzling grabs in the back of the end zone that featured a toe-tap before stepping on the paint became the norm for the 6’-1”, 200-pound star receiver. In his final season in Baton Rouge, he led the country in catches with 111 for 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns.
Selected as the fifth wide receiver off the board to the Vikings in the NFL draft, Jefferson went to one of the prime landing spots for a wideout. After trading deep threat Stefon Diggs to Buffalo, the offense was in need of a complement to Adam Thielen so the expectation was Jefferson would be an instant starter but without a preseason to get his feet wet, the rookie needed a couple of games to make an impact.
And boy did he!
Jefferson led Minnesota in receiving against the Titans, hauling in seven of nine targets for 175 yards, including a 71-yard touchdown grab that is getting all the headlines in the dynasty community. While blowing past 36-year-old cornerback Johnathan Joseph on the TD grab is great and the cutback to elude safety Kenny Vaccaro was nice, it was another catch that showed his upside even more.
The 31-yarder Jefferson made down the left sideline on third-and-two in the second quarter was actually his most impressive of the afternoon. On the play, he stuttered at the line of scrimmage, released to the outside and got a step on Amani Hooker before skying over the defensive back and making the contested catch. It was a perfect example of what the Vikings brought Jefferson in to do.
While he started his career relatively slowly, catching just five passes for 70 yards while playing 61% of the Vikings’ snaps, Jefferson had his coming out party in week three. On the field for nearly 80% of the offense’s plays, he appears to be nearly a full-time player already and if Sunday was any indication, already has the trust of quarterback Kirk Cousins. Furthermore, he played far more on the outside in week three than he had in weeks one and two. The move out of the slot freed him up to be a vertical weapon.
Despite being in a run-first offense that features a WR1 in Thielen, Jefferson’s upside is through the roof in both the short and long-term. While he’s not an automatic starter for dynasty managers just yet, he should be a flex consideration with bye weeks right around the corner and injuries mounting. If Minnesota continues to play in negative game scripts – which would force them to pass more than head coach Mike Zimmer prefers – and he continues to play on the perimeter, a low-end WR2 or high-end WR3 finish in 2020 is easily conceivable. Considering the coaching staff’s reluctance to air it out, however, an inconsistent WR4 rookie season is far more likely.
As far as the long-term is concerned however, Jefferson is dripping with fringe WR1 upside. If he continues to develop as a route runner and can get stronger off the press as an outside receiver, the only thing that will hold him back could be the coaching staff’s unwillingness to throw the ball and Cousins’ reluctance to push the ball down the field when they finally do.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR SF
Week Three Stats: Five receptions, 70 yards (Eight targets), three carries, 31 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown
After playing his first two years of college football in junior college, Aiyuk didn’t burst onto the dynasty radar until his senior year at Arizona State when he hauled in 65 passes for 1,192 yards and eight touchdowns.
Quick as a whip with great ball skills, Aiyuk destroyed college defenses at all three levels. Known for his return skills, the Sun Devils featured him on bubble screens to get him in the open field and allow him to break tackles. His intermediate routes featured lightning-fast change of direction to uncover from defenders and excellent speed (4.5 40-yard dash) to pull away from them. Because of that quickness underneath, he could bate defenders with jab steps before accelerating downfield to get on top of the defense for big plays.
Aiyuk rose throughout the pre-draft process due to his electrifying quickness both before and after the catch but dynasty managers were slow to warm up to him. A late second-rounder (2.12) and the tenth wide receiver off the board in dynasty rookie mocks leading up to the NFL draft, being drafted by the 49ers as the sixth wideout selected in the NFL Draft moved him up to 15th in post-NFL draft rookie mocks.
After a hamstring injury cost him part of training camp and forced him to be inactive in week one, Aiyuk has played 72% of the 49ers’ offensive snaps in each of the last two weeks. He caught two of three targets for just 21 yards in week two but made the most of his opportunities in week three, hauling in five passes on eight targets for 70 yards and carrying three times for 31 yards and a score.
The performance was reminiscent of what Deebo Samuel did in his rookie season as head coach Kyle Shanahan moved him around the formation, trying to get him opportunities to run with the ball in his hands. Aiyuk went untouched on a 19-yard end-around touchdown run, caught slant routes and crossers for first downs and settled in the middle of zone coverage down the field for a big third-down grab. He was all over the field.
While his performance in week three is likely at least partly due to Samuel being on short-term injured reserve, it should be seen as a glimpse of Aiyuk’s upside in Shanahan’s offense. It’s unknown how the incredibly similar Samuel and Aiyuk will work together but if there is anybody who can figure it out, it’s Shanahan.
As long as he’s attached to a creative coach who will find ways to get him the ball in space, Aiyuk will continue to have WR2/3 long-term upside with a chance to be an immediate bye week fill-in if he can become at least somewhat consistent in the coming weeks. If you’re looking to add a young wide receiver with potential, he certainly fits the description.
- League Tycoon: Dynasty Salary Cap Fantasy Football - December 15, 2023
- Final Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Wide Receivers, Part Two - March 22, 2023
- 2023 NFL Scouting Combine: Offensive Player Dynasty Review - March 10, 2023
