2020 Dynasty Capsule: Jacksonville Jaguars
Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.
Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”
This is an all-encompassing look at the Jaguars’ offense heading into the 2020 off-season.
Quarterback
Nick Foles (ADP: 235, QB35)
Age: 31
The unfortunate opening day injury aside, nothing about the 2019 season was encouraging for Foles’ dynasty owners. He entered the season as the QB33 in ADP and was seemingly locked into a starting job for two years in what appeared to be a promising situation. The emergence of Gardner Minshew in Foles’ absence, though, has Foles’ future as an NFL starting QB very much in jeopardy.
While his contract makes it unlikely the Jaguars will cut bait, trade suitors are likely nowhere to be found for the 31-year-old gunslinger given the strength of both the 2020 free agent class and the numerous promising signal-callers entering the league via the draft. Best-case scenario has Foles competing with Minshew for the starting job this summer. Even if he prevails, the leash will be very short with Minshew Mania only one snap away.
This likely spells the end of the value floor Foles had a year ago. Barring another miraculous run, it’s unlikely to be rebuilt. I’d recommend holding him if you already have him on a roster, and absolutely capitalize on any positive news regarding his role as a starter. There might be a very short window to sell him for any appreciable return. That’s not likely to come until we get deep into the training camp battle.
Gardner Minshew (ADP: 205, QB29)
Age: 23
One year ago, Minshew was coming off a forgettable Senior Bowl performance where he completed one of eight passes for a whopping four yards. There was zero hype around him. Dynasty owners largely forgot about him until opening day 2019. Of the thirty-seven rookie drafts I tracked for a superflex ADP project, Minshew was drafted in the top 60 picks in only two of those leagues.
After the Foles injury saw him land on injured reserve, guaranteeing Minshew two months of starts, the former Washington State Cougar started a total of twelve games for the Jaguars and finished as QB18 in PPG.
The decision to retain head coach Doug Marrone could give Minshew a legitimate chance to compete for the starting job in 2020 and given that he’s locked into a very cheap rookie deal through the 2023 season, he’s currently the QB25 in January ADP. Dynasty owners are valuing him as a starting QB. At this price, I’m happy to have Minshew shares in my portfolio but I’m also happy to shop him to a potential truther in superflex leagues.
The Jaguars are a potential candidate to draft a QB in either 2020 or 2021. If he’s named a starter at any point before then, Minshew is an absolute sell as fast as I can cash in that winning lottery ticket.
Running Back
Leonard Fournette (ADP: 14.83, RB10)
Age: 25
Imagine having a running back who averaged 17.3 PPR PPG, finished fourth in the league in targets at his position and only scored three touchdowns on 341 total touches?
This profile screams massive value and that’s what many owners believe they have with Fournette. His ADP is up four spots from his RB14 spot last January, and the most important stat of his 2019 season is fifteen games played, with the only missed game during a meaningless and non-fantasy week seventeen showdown.
That said, the market seems to be very cautious lumping Fournette in with other running backs such as Joe Mixon and Nick Chubb. If you’re in the market to aggressively buy a potential superstar at a value, he’s likely your best purchase at the current rate.
Owners should be aware that he could have a new home after the 2020 season. With a new regime possibly taking over in Jacksonville, there could be a very short window to flip him during the season. I’m not looking to buy very many running backs at this time of year, but the former fourth overall draft pick is on the short-list of players who would be on the menu. The only way I’m considering a sale on Fournette is if I’m buying both upside and extra years of production. I’d look for one of the top three running backs in the 2020 class or a lateral move to Chubb, Mixon, Josh Jacobs or Miles Sanders.
Ryquell Armstead (ADP: 170.67, RB61)
Age: 23
Armstead was a very popular late round rookie pick last summer. He slowly rose in value during the summer as the doubt of a Fournette injury-free season continued to be mentioned.
Despite being the clear number two running back on the depth chart all season, the former Temple workhorse played only 150 total offensive snaps and secured only 49 touches in his rookie campaign. His future value is going to be very dependent on what the Jaguars do to address the RB position this spring, but Armstead did nothing to hurt his appeal as a high-caliber handcuff and his profile is one that I’d be confident getting as a throw-in to a larger trade.
Owners need to be realistic on his outlook, since he’s a former fifth round pick who will likely never be viewed as a future starter in the league. A little luck could equal some spot start production in the future, but shopping him for a future third round pick or to the Fournette owner for a slight premium on your purchase price is likely the reasonable move to make.
Devine Ozigbo (ADP: 237)
Age: 23
Ozigbo was signed by the Jaguars right before the beginning of the 2019 season. That came as a bit of a surprise for many dynasty owners who not only used a rookie draft pick on him, but were encouraged by him landing with the New Orleans Saints.
After going undrafted and not being able to stick on the 53-man roster, he was cut in many dynasty leagues and lingered on the Jaguars roster where he was active for ten games in the 2019 season and touched the ball only 12 times.
Although Ozigbo’s profile was coveted by some, he’s clearly behind Armstead, has lesser draft capital and has much less commitment by the Jaguars to his roster spot. In very deep point-per-carry (PPC) leagues there’s likely a place for him as a spotty stash, but that’s about it. When the opportunity presents itself to add a player with a slightly better path to playing time, feel free to kick him to the waiver wire.
Jeremy McNichols (ADP: 229.50)
Age: 24
McNichols was added to the active roster during week 17 when Fournette was unavailable. As much as his name may still trigger those who fell in love with him three years ago, that figure (17) matches the same number of NFL games he has played in that same time. He’s a free agent and may latch on somewhere, but I’m only interested after he’s landed and can somehow navigate himself onto an opening day roster. Even then, I’m not guaranteeing him a roster spot unless the situation warrants a free pickup. If it hasn’t happened by now, after employment with four different teams, it’s likely never going to.
Wide Receiver
DJ Chark (ADP: 41.83, WR21)
Age: 23
Chark was one of the biggest dynasty surprises of the 2019 season. His August 2019 ADP was WR92, behind his own teammates Keelan Cole (WR91) and Dede Westbrook (WR46), and only one round ahead of journeyman Chris Conley. He blew past all his teammates, finishing WR17 overall, and ranked second among wide receivers from the 2019 class only behind DJ Moore.
One of the more encouraging numbers with Chark was his production with Minshew under center. His dynasty owners are likely hoping Minshew earn’s the starting job going forward.
I’m buying Chark at his current value, but would prefer to sell an older wide receiver like Julio Jones in a package deal. If you’re not a believer, he’s a fair cash out if you can snag one of the top two or three wide receivers in the upcoming class. Regardless of the side you’re on, Chark’s profile and his out-of-nowhere breakout is a case study for owners who are trying to hone in on the next great value win at the wide receiver position.
Dede Westbrook (ADP: 136.67, WR53)
Age: 26
The emergence of Chark pushed Westbrook into dynasty “no man’s land.” Most owners find it difficult to determine his value.
The good news is he finished WR42 overall in 2019 and posted six weeks as a WR3 or better. The bad news is he’s clearly behind Chark in targets and the Jaguars targeted Conley and Cole 125 times last year.
This usage at the other wide receiver spots makes it difficult to trust any of the secondary weapons in Jacksonville. At an advanced age of 26 for a third-year pro, he’s likely worth more as a spot starter than on the trade market. I’d target Westbrook in deep flex leagues where I can start five or more receivers, but otherwise he’s relegated to a match-up dependent starter and I’m more hopeful for a buzzy cash-out opportunity rather than looking to invest. Back-to-back strong rookie wide receiver classes in 2020 and 2021 could threaten his future as a fantasy-relevant player, and owners can’t see that future anything short of dynasty dud.
Chris Conley (ADP: 213.17, WR95)
Age: 27
Amazingly, Conley is only one year older than Westbrook, finished two-tenths (0.2) points behind him in 2019, and did so with eleven less targets than his teammate.
Conley hasn’t driven much fantasy buzz in a few years and if all things remain the same, he presents a much better value than Westbrook and is one of the highest in net value opportunity (2019 finish – ADP) in the league. I’m not advocating that dynasty owners go buy Conley, but he’s signed through 2020 and is certainly startable in deeper flex leagues or leagues where five or more receivers can be started. He also presents more weekly upside at his cost considering he was one of 50 wide receivers that posted multiple WR1 weeks in 2019. The edge of the cliff is always within leaping distance with a player like him, but he’s likely forgotten on many rosters and may even be floating on a few shallow waiver wires. I’m intrigued for 2020 and would be holding or buying at his current price.
Keelan Cole (ADP: 233.50, WR99)
Age: 27
Cole is a player that I just can’t quit, and for good reason. Despite entering the league at 23 and playing his rookie season at 24, Cole’s inaugural year production has kept me invested and hoping for another opportunity.
His chances have been scaled back the past two years, netting only 115 targets and being relegated to a part-time player in 2018 and 2019. He hits restricted free agency this season, and I’m doing what I can to find a roster spot for him in any league with 28 or more roster spots, waiting to see if there’s a usage or situation change. If nothing happens by the fall and his involvement continues to falter, the future is likely over for Cole as a dynasty-relevant asset.
However, don’t be surprised if he’s cut in your leagues. Take advantage of owners who may be unaware of his situation, and prioritize him as a speculative addition until we have more information. There’s a non-zero chance that another team may see hidden value in Cole. You’ll want to have him secured on your roster if that happens.
Marqise Lee (ADP: 226.75, WR93)
Age: 28
I debated including Lee on this list, but decided to add him with one caveat. The one thing that keeps Lee on the radar is his availability. He’s signed with the Jags through 2021, but is also assuredly a cap casualty. If he can show he’s healthy, another team will likely take a shot on the former second round pick. You could do worse with your last roster spot on a fantasy squad with 30+ roster spots.
The best part about stashing Lee is you won’t have to wait all summer to determine his fate. Once he’s cut by the Jags, any interest should be quickly shown by other franchises. If he remains unsigned or stays on with the Jaguars, I’m okay with cutting bait and letting someone else continue to wait.
Michael Walker (ADP: N/A)
Age: 23
Michael Walker is probably on the waiver wire in 99% of dynasty leagues and the only thing keeping him on this list is team attrition. He’s a pure slot receiver who saw action in seven games for the Jags in 2019.
With Lee’s future in-doubt and Cole a restricted free agent, there’s a chance that Walker finds some work in 2020. He’s quick and could make an impact like Scott Miller with Tampa or Russell Gage with Atlanta. I don’t advise adding him right away, but keep an eye on the WR room this spring and be aware of the pecking order. Any movement with Lee or Cole should trigger the name “Michael Walker” in your player pool.
Tight End
Josh Oliver (ADP: 225.50, TE34)
Age: 22
An injury-riddled rookie year cost Oliver any chance at an early NFL impact despite third round draft capital and a great landing spot. This result would be a concern for a non-TE, but for Oliver the upside is still through the roof.
He checks in at TE34 in the latest ADP. I’m looking to buy at this price considering the lack of top-end talent and depth in the 2020 rookie class. If you’re looking to pivot down to Oliver, Will Dissly (TE21) and Jack Doyle (TE26) are easy marks to pitch to your leaguemates as players you would move.
Like fellow sophomores Kahale Warring and Jace Sternberger, who also present similar buy profiles, Oliver is ripe for a big move up the board if he can remain healthy and earn reps with a re-tooling and re-shaped Jaguars offense. Jay Gruden’s use of Jordan Reed and Tyler Eifert are encouraging for Oliver’s future. Now is the time to buy.
Geoff Swaim (ADP: 239)
Age: 26
Swaim landed with the Jags after spending four years with the Cowboys and entered the 2019 season as the starting TE. An injury ended his season early and many dynasty owners moved on to the next man up. He is under contract for 2020 and he’s not worth cutting yet, especially if Foles is the starting QB.
Foles targeted the TE at the highest rate during a two-year span in 2017 and 2018; Swaim would have a chance at more targets than expected if he remains under center.
He’s easily replaceable, as there’s very little long-term value here, but don’t be surprised if the name gets mentioned a few times going forward in deeper tight end premium formats.
Seth DeValve (ADP: 237.50)
Age: 26
DeValve is only relevant in deep tight end premium or start-two tight end leagues, but he’s only 27-years old and his profile still intrigues me enough to think he’s likely going to crack a 53-man roster and is an injury away from relevance. There certainly are lesser talents being held on rosters. While I wouldn’t give up anything for DeValve, Vance McDonald finished 24th in TE targets last year with 55. DeValve could see a value spike into relevant range if he lands in a good situation. Wait to see where he lands before cutting him and add him if you’re looking for a very deep add.
- Four Tight Ends to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 23, 2023
- Four Wide Receivers to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 16, 2023
- Four Running Backs to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 9, 2023
