Over/Under: 2020 Value

Matthew Griffith Posted On January 28, 2020

The 2019 season is complete. You’ve listened to everyone tell you to acquire 2020 picks and you’ve done just that. So you’re holding these valuable picks, now what?

The picks themselves hold more value right now than the actual players who you select with them in a few months. This is one of my favorite times of year, where you get to take advantage of eager drafters and pick seekers, while looking deeper into this draft class for the lesser valued players who have similar skill sets and upsides.

Value is a funny word. When you say someone is overvalued, people automatically think you don’t like that player, or you think they are overrated. This isn’t the case at all for me. When I say someone is overvalued, I’m actually basing that on the definition of the word “value” and the dynasty community’s current perception of the player’s situation, skill set, and potential for fantasy success

A perfect example right now is Joe Burrow. He was almost unknown before this season (undervalued) and now is almost the consensus 1.01 in superflex leagues. That value has not only risen drastically, but has essentially peaked in this pre-draft process. I’m in no way saying he isn’t good, or doesn’t deserve that draft capitol, but he is currently overvalued.

Ok, now that we have that out of the way, I want to dig into four players in this class who are currently being too highly valued (“Over”), and four players at the same positions that could be considered a bargain (“Under”).

Over: JK Dobbins, RB OSU

Under: Cam Akers, RB FSU

Dobbins has had a roller coaster past few years. He hit the scene his freshman year and made waves throughout the devy community. His sophomore year was a letdown statically, but actually provided a premiere time to buy while his value dropped. Now that the 2019 season is behind us, Dobbins has vaulted himself into the top tier of this running back group after an impressive junior season.

As a fan of Dobbins, I was very happy to see him perform the way he did, reminding us why we loved him after his freshman season. With that jump in production, we have to deal with the jump in price. If his value was still at the back end of the first round, I would be completely on board, but he is widely considered a top six pick and with that jump in price I tend to think he is now a bit overvalued.

Let’s talk Akers, a player you should be able to acquire at the middle to tail end of the 1st round in your rookie drafts, and who I think is a great value.

Akers, like Dobbins, had a fantastic freshman showing. He also brought the high school pedigree by being the top rated running back by 247Sports in the 2017 high school class, ahead of the likes of D’Andre Swift, Travis Etienne, Jonathan Taylor, and Dobbins. Akers and Dobbins actually had very similar numbers over their careers, and that comes with Florida State having statistically one of the worst offensive lines in the country. According to Football Outsiders, Florida State ranked 117th in Line Yards, 94th in Power Success, 113th in Stuff Rate, and 114th in Sack Rate.

Akers agility, decision making, and athleticism out of the backfield makes him not only a weapon, but a great value in this draft. I will be targeting him in the latter part of first round drafts everywhere.

Over: Henry Ruggs III, WR Alabama

Under: Jalen Reagor, WR TCU

On paper, these two receivers are very similar. Ruggs stands 6’0” and 190 lbs. while Reagor stands 5’11” and 195 lbs. Ruggs has been reported to run a 4.25 second 40-yard dash, while Reagor has been reported at 4.29 seconds. Both of these guys should tear the combine apart and only increase their values going into the NFL draft.

The only thing that really sets these two apart, is where their value is today. The newly updated rookie ADP on DLF has Ruggs as WR4 and Reagor as WR5, with Reagor generally looked at in a tier below Ruggs. I actually think Reagor may be the more complete wide receiver right now and could truly be a team’s top wide receiver on Sundays. Ruggs is very talented but would be more suited as a complimentary piece to a teams already established top receiver.

Over: Hunter Bryant, TE UW

Under: Harrison Bryant, TE FAU

I am definitely in the minority on this one, but after watching Hunter Bryant extensively over the past two seasons, I am left unsatisfied for where his value is currently.

When I see the measurables, I want to think of Irv Smith Jr., the third tight end taken off the board last spring. Washington actually used Bryant very similarly to how Alabama used Smith Jr. Both primarily lined up either offset in a wing position, or out wide as a wide receiver. Both were used to exploit mismatches with linebackers and safeties running a lot of seams and quick outs. However, Hunter isn’t quite as fast, quick, or as agile as Smith was coming out of school. This, combined with his stature at 6’2” and 230 pounds, makes him a tough buy at his current price.

Harrison Bryant, on the other hand, makes for a very intriguing prospect and tight end. He stands 6’5” and 240 pounds, showing great athleticism and upside. I was impressed with his release from the line of scrimmage and burst getting up field. The 2019 John Mackey award winner has the ability to be an actual weapon for an NFL team. His landing spot can easily take him from an undrafted free agent in rookie drafts to a target, maybe even in the third round.

Over: Bryan Edwards, WR South Carolina

Under: Isaiah Hodgins, WR Oregon State

Edwards is such an interesting prospect. Since enrolling at South Carolina, we have seen his name ranked in the top three at his position, and we have seen him fall out of the top ten. I was a big fan after the 2018 season, specifically when he confirmed he was coming back to school for his senior year, because his value dipped enough to where he was attainable in the late second, early third round of devy drafts.

Edwards is currently the 14th ranked player in DLF’s rookie rankings which makes an early second round pick more than likely. At that price I would rather trade down and gain additional assets along with Hodgins in the late third round.

Hodgins is currently ranked as the 18th wide receiver and the 28th overall rookie on DLF and hasn’t really received the credit he deserves after a standout junior campaign where he hauled in 86 balls for 1,171 yards and 12 touchdowns. He possesses burst, high point ability, and the speed of an NFL wide receiver and he has a great frame, standing at 6’4” and 209 lbs.

Again, over valued is not the same thing as overrated. I am a huge fan of some of these guys, but when I can get a comparable player at a cheaper price, I’m all in on that.