2020 Dynasty Capsule: Arizona Cardinals
Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.
Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”
Under the watchful eye of new head coach Kliff Kingsbury, the re-tooling Arizona Cardinals finished the season with a 5-10-1 record. This was a fun team to watch throughout the year as their fast-paced offense generated a lot of excitement. The sheer volume generated by the offense created some interesting DFS plays during the season. With how this team is developing, the Cardinals could churn out some promising dynasty assets in the next couple of years.
QUARTERBACK
Kyler Murray (ADP: 68.17, QB4)
Age: 22
Murray didn’t disappoint during his rookie year. He finished the season as QB8 with 285.28 fantasy points. His rushing production stabilized his overall floor and made him a safe fantasy option on a week-to-week basis in 2019. For a rookie, he was very efficient completing 64.4 percent of his passes. According to Pro Football Focus, he had an adjusted completion percentage of 74.4 and a 45.2 adjusted completion rate on his deep ball attempts. He also had a run during the season where he had 211 pass attempts without an interception.
The future looks bright for Murray. It appears the franchise is doing the right thing by building around him and getting him weapons that optimize both him and the team’s offensive philosophy. The Cardinals made an exceptional in-season move by trading for Kenyan Drake whose receiving ability only helped Arizona’s passing offense. The team also spent a fair amount of draft capital in last year’s draft trying to obtain suitable options for the passing game with Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler, KeeSean Johnson and Caleb Wilson. The team is projected to pursue the wide receiver position again in this year’s draft.
Chart courtesy of DLF’s ADP Comparison Tool
Murray is currently being valued as a sixth-round pick in startup drafts with a 64.25 ADP. Considering his age and rushing floor, his value should stabilize over the next couple of years. Even with a bad defense, the Cardinals managed to run 62.5 plays per game while ranking fourth in the league with 28.35 seconds between plays in neutral game script. Murray’s overall passing volume should increase as the team around him gets better.
His age-adjusted production is already baked into his cost. He’s not going to get cheaper during the off-season. In an age where everyone is chasing the late-round-quarterback, Murray is considered an expensive asset to obtain, considering the opportunity costs associated by selecting him over some of the talented running back and wide receiver prospects in his range of the draft.
Chart courtesy so DLF’s Trade Finder
The best way to obtain him might be through trade in a packaged deal. If you try to trade for him in a one-for-one deal you may have to eat some value at either wide receiver or running back, but you might be able to sneak him away if you have multiple players involved. This puzzle isn’t going to be the same for everyone, but if you are highly interested in obtaining Murray you’d be wise to creatively explore a multiplayer trade.
Brett Hundley (ADP: N/A)
Age: 26
Hundley has been a journeyman ever since he first graced the NFL in 2015. Since then he’s played for the Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks, and the Cardinals. He only attempted 11 passes in 2019 and will be a free agent this off-season. Unless there’s a freak accident to a starting quarterback, Hundley will never be a coveted asset in dynasty.
RUNNING BACK
Kenyan Drake (ADP: 62.67, RB25)
Age: 25
The tides definitely turned for Drake. Last season he went from a breakout candidate in the Miami Dolphins’ backfield to becoming a key staple to the Cardinals’ offense. Before the mid-season trade, he was averaging 58 yards from scrimmage per game with the Dolphins. Once he set foot in Arizona, his average jumped up to 102 yards per game. He proved to be a great fit in Kingsbury’s offense and looks like he could be a key ingredient to the team’s success for years to come.
We are seeing a significant increase in Drake’s fantasy value. Due to his workload in the passing game, he creates additional value in PPR leagues. There’s a lot of ambiguity at the running back position, and his recent success will easily jump him up the ranks. DLF currently has him ranked as the RB23 in positional rankings and the 71st overall player ranked in their top 200. Even when the rookies start getting mixed into the rankings, I suspect he will be one of the few veteran running backs that will hold his value.
The future isn’t guaranteed, though. First off, he’s set to be a free agent this off-season. Arizona seems like a perfect place for his skill sets due to their up-tempo offense. Considering the Cardinals recently traded for him and he immediately produced when call upon, they will likely make a significant effort to re-sign him this off-season. It’s just as likely that he receives tempting offers from other teams, though.
David Johnson is still on the roster. Although Johnson fell off the map in 2019, it’s not outside the realm of possibilities that he bounces back and cannibalizes some of the touches out of the backfield. There’s a chance that he’s not on the team next year, but until a transaction is made, we can only speculate.
David Johnson (ADP: 93.33, RB31)
Age: 28
Three seasons have passed since Johnson accumulated 425.8 fantasy points in 2016. That year he rushed for 1,239 yards and 16 touchdowns while catching 80 passes for 879 yards and four touchdowns. Injuries and poor play from him and his supporting cast resulted in just 407 fantasy points in his last three seasons. During that time, he has rushed for 1,308 yards and nine touchdowns, and caught just 86 passes for 816 yards and seven touchdowns. That magical 2016 season is long gone.
Recently, we’ve seen his ADP drop dramatically. He’s 28 years old and the competition is going to ramp up at the running back position in the league with this year’s rookie class. The Cardinals will still have him on the books through 2021 and they will need to either cut or trade him for him to be able to move on to another team. This could be a difficult endeavor due to the sheer size of his contract. His contract will have $16.2 million in dead cap in 2020, making it almost impossible for the team to cut him. They would need to trade him if they want to get him off the books. The contract gets a lot more favorable for the Cardinals in 2021. In the short term, their best interest would be to try and make a deal or hope he returns to his old form.
No matter where he’s at, we need Johnson to make like LL Cool J and call it a comeback. He needs to stay healthy and start balling out again. If not, then he’s just going to be another aging back who is losing dynasty value by the minute. Eventually, he’s going to fall far enough down the ranks that he becomes a value. That price point is different for everyone, but there’s going to be a time where the upside is worth the entry cost.
Chase Edmonds (ADP: 149.67, RB50)
Age: 23
Edmonds had a three-week stint when he proved to be a more than functional option in fantasy. In week seven against the Giants, he rushed for 126 yards and three touchdowns, scoring 35 PPR fantasy points to make him an RB1 for the week. He was eventually booted back to his reserve role once the team traded for Drake and Johnson returned from his injury.
We should value him as a stash in dynasty leagues. He showed us what he can do last year when he had the feature back role for three weeks. Granted, he played against softer run defenses, but he has the potential to be a startable option in fantasy if he ever gets the option to see the lead back role.
WIDE RECEIVER
Christian Kirk (ADP: 48.67, WR24)
Age: 23
Even missing three weeks due to injury, Kirk still finished the season as WR38 in fantasy. He was relatively consistent, recording just four single-digit fantasy weeks. When on the field, he was the Cardinal’s go-to receiver, leading the team with a 23 percent target share. He also led the team with 1,079 air yards. His 68 receptions for 709 yards were the most in his two-year career.
The 23-year-old wide receiver is valued as a high-end WR2 with a lot of potential. Kirk is the leading receiver on a high-octane offense that wants to be fast-paced and run a lot of plays. His receiving volume should increase as the team gets better, making him an asset that should gain value in the near future.
Kirk is falling to the fourth round of startup drafts with a 48.67 ADP. He’s a young prospect who has been productive enough to hold his value. The field is expecting Arizona’s offense to take off and develop into an air-raid explosion that creates multiple fantasy relevant assets. In a way, we are already seeing it, but in the passing game we are waiting for lift-off.
With Kirk leading the team in targets and air yards, when the Cardinals do figure things out and finally get their team built, he will be in line for a large workload that will elevate his fantasy potential.
Larry Fitzgerald (ADP: 183, WR76)
Age: 36
Fitzgerald finished his 16th NFL season with 75 catches for 804 yards and four touchdowns while averaging 7.4 yards per target. Even at the age of 36 he was a major piece of the Cardinals offense seeing a 20 percent target share. He led all wide receivers with 503 snaps out of the slot, although 62.39 percent of his targets went for ten yards or less. His efficiency was pretty good for an “old man.” He caught 72.1 percent of the passes thrown his way while establishing a 91.2 quarterback rating when targeted.
We are going to deal with Fitzgerald and his retirement decision every off-season until he decides to call it quits. Dynasty owners have been speculating his retirement for the last six years. He is going to go out on his own terms, and we have no idea when that will be. On the other hand, his dynasty value is about as low as you can get, and his retirement is baked into his price tag. He’s a player you must walk on eggshells with until you fully know the status of his retirement.
Contending teams might want him as an end of bench stash while rebuilding teams shouldn’t have anything to do with him. His value really depends on whether your team needs an aging veteran that can fill gaps during bye weeks.
Andy Isabella (ADP: 132.67, WR58)
Age: 23
The Cardinals drafted Isabella in the second round of last year’s draft. He was used sparingly this season, but did provide some excitement. He caught nine passes for 189 yards and one touchdown. It wasn’t a very productive rookie season for Isabella, but he flashed enough talent to keep dynasty aficionados interested.
His dynasty value will be age-insulated for another year or two, making him a safe asset to own. He might see a decrease in value if he goes another year seeing hardly any targets. However, the Cardinals did spend a second-round pick on him. He was highly productive at the college level and has plenty of speed to burn. Isabella has enough talent to help the team. We just need him to take a step forward and develop into a usable fantasy asset.
KeeSean Johnson (ADP: 211.33, WR85)
Age: 23
Johnson was drafted by the Cardinals in the sixth round of last year’s draft. He finished his rookie season catching 21 passes for 187 yards and one touchdown. Like most rookie seasons, his will go down as a lost cause. Johnson is in a great situation and has the chance to grow into a focal point of the offense.
Typically, in startup drafts, he is falling somewhere around the 18th round, making him virtually free. His trade value is next to nothing and he can simply be added on as a throw-in piece to a bigger trade. We want to take shots on as many players as we can from this offense. Arizona wants to lead the league in passing volume, and if the team improves we could see a few players from this offense take a step forward in fantasy production. One of those players could be Johnson.
Hakeem Butler (ADP: 153.17, WR66)
Age: 23
Butler spent his rookie season on injured reserve with a hand injury. He was considered one of the top wide receiver prospects in last year’s draft. He fell to the fourth round to the Cardinals and has lost a lot of dynasty value ever since he fell in the draft. Butler will have the chance to make an impact next year if everything goes according to plan. He’s a player to buy on the low since he’s currently dirt cheap and has enough talent to exceed expectations.
Damiere Byrd (ADP: N/A)
Age: 26
We saw Byrd make a slight impact for the Cardinals last year, catching 32 passes for 359 yards and one touchdown. He will be a free agent this off-season. He’s not a player I would put any chips on since he has only produced 488 receiving yards in four seasons. Byrd will need to get signed by a team that will provide plenty of opportunities for him to compete for a starting job. The odds of that happening are slim to none.
Pharoh Cooper (ADP: N/A)
Age: 24
Cooper was once a top-100 startup pick in 2016. He had a very interesting prospect profile due to his blend of size, speed, and athleticism coming out of college. Unfortunately, his NFL career has been forgettable at best, but he’s still a name to know just in case he resurfaces somewhere. After all, he’s only 24 years old. I know it’s usually the exception, but some wide receivers break out later in their career.
TIGHT END
Charles Clay (ADP: N/A)
Age: 30
All tight ends combined saw a ten percent target share for the Cardinals. Clay led all tight ends with 24 targets. He was able to reel in 18 passes for 237 yards and one touchdown. He will be a free agent this off-season. With him being an older veteran, it’s going to be interesting to see where he signs in free agency. You are likely not going to be targeting him in start-up drafts considering his age and lack of production in recent years.
Maxx Williams (ADP: N/A)
Williams was originally drafted by the Baltimore Ravens in the second round of the 2015 NFL Draft. At that time, he was considered the hot tight end prospect to get in dynasty. Now, he’s struggling to make a name for himself. The Cardinals re-signed him in November and his current contract has him locked in with the team through 2021. With another year under his belt learning the team’s offensive system, there might be a chance that he carves out a larger role in the passing game next season.
Dan Darnold (ADP: N/A)
Arnold is an undersized tight end who logged 105 snaps this season. If anything, he’s an interesting athlete with a 6.81 three-cone and a 97th percentile burst score. Arnold is a player to keep an eye on just in case he sees an increased workload next year.
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