Flip or Stick?
One of the hardest decisions in dynasty fantasy football is what to do with players who have exceeded the expectations we had for them. Should you flip these players and attempt to “cash-out”? Or do you ride the wave wherever it may take you, and have them stick to your roster, knowing that their value and production could bottom out at any moment? On a personal level, I trade away any players who hit unexpectedly, but that doesn’t mean that’s always the correct call.
One caveat to my “verdict” — you should still look to see what you can obtain in a trade for the players listed below. Even if I suggest a player should stick on your roster, no player should ever be off-limits if the price is right. One additional caveat — my thoughts are subjective. Yes, they will be stat-based, but they will still incorporate my own thoughts on what the stats and situations for these players say.
James Robinson, RB JAC
After Robinson’s week one performance, he was an easy sell for me. In fact, I traded him away in two of my own leagues. I should have waited. Week one saw Robinson monopolize every running back attempt from the Jaguars as he rushed for 16 times for 62 yards, but after only being targeted once, I was less than impressed with his performance. If I dug a tad deeper, I would have seen he ranked 15th on the week in yards created, per FantasyData.com.
Robinson didn’t take every running back rushing attempt in week two, but he did take 16 or 18 attempts for a healthy 89% rushing share. He broke free for a 39-yard run and finished the day with 102 rushing yards. Not only did Robinson have a great rushing game, but he was also used in the passing attack. Though Chris Thompson did score a receiving touchdown, Robinson matched Thompson on the day with three receptions on four targets.
Robinson also has played more snaps with a 51% snap share compared to Thompson’s 41% against Tennessee, after holding a 68% to 24% snap share advantage in week one. Robinson has excelled in advanced efficiency rated metrics, ranking top five in yards created per attempt, eighth in evaded tackles, and 11th in juke rate, again, per FantasyData.com.
With the Jaguars looking far more competitive than many of us thought they would be, and the offense being better than advertised, Robinson looks to be someone you can rely on for the rest of the season. Hold onto him for at least one more week. Robinson gets a Miami defense that is allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game this season after giving up the sixth-most rushing yards per game in 2019, and should smash. Any owner in your league who is desperate for a running back might be more willing to pay up a 2021 rookie first with one more productive week under Robinson’s belt.
Verdict: Stick
Though it’s still way too early to anoint Robinson as the long-term answer at running back for the Jaguars, he has earned enough confidence for the rest of this season. But don’t let my opinion stop you from checking out our Dynasty Trade Finder app to get an idea of some of the assets you acquire in return.
Keelan Cole, WR JAC
Cole has been a fun story to start the year. After disappointing second and third seasons in the league, he has started hot with 11 receptions for 105 yards and two touchdowns. His five targets in week one led the Jaguars, as did his seven targets in week two. Using the DLF Snap Count app, we see that Cole has ranked second in snap share, behind DJ Chark, for Jaguar wide receivers as well.
In theory, everything we want out of a wide receiver is what we’re currently getting from Cole. Snaps, targets, and touchdowns, right? Well not really. Even though he’s second in targets, he still has only captured an 18% target share of the Jags total targets and a less than inspiring 14% share of their total air yards. After the 2019 season that DJ Chark produced it’s hard to imagine that he doesn’t overtake the target lead from Cole sooner rather than later.
And we have seen this before out of Cole. In his rookie year, he had himself a mini-breakout from week 13 through 16.
Since that time though, Cole has seen his snaps, targets, and fantasy production tumble year after year.
You could place some of the blame on the poor quarterback play, except last year he did play with 2020 starter Gardner Minshew most of the year and except for three weeks, Cole was utterly useless for fantasy. When someone has a track record of less than mediocre play and production, it takes more than two games for me to change my opinion on that player.
I don’t buy in on players who have no pedigree (Cole was a UDFA), no history of sustained success, and who aren’t physically impressive. These players rarely hit and if they do, they rarely sustain that success. There are more than enough wide receivers in the Keelan Cole mold who you can find on the waiver wire or are already on your roster.
Verdict: Flip
Cole isn’t going to get you a lot in return, but you might be able to pivot to another position of need on your roster. I’d prefer taking my chances with a running back like Malcolm Brown or a tight end like Logan Thomas. I’d also be willing to move him and a late-round pick to move up a round in next year’s rookie drafts. By the time this is published, hopefully Cole has another good fantasy day against a bad Dolphins’ secondary which should help increase his value.
Russell Gage, WR ATL
Air and opportunity are wonderful things. Some players fail to take advantage of it while others thrive. After the Falcons traded away Mohamed Sanu last year, Gage thrived with the opportunity provided.
If you were a bit circumspect that Gage would continue to produce in 2020, it’s understandable. His ascension also coincided with Calvin Ridley missing three games. The Falcons defense also forced the Falcons into shootouts ranking 22nd in points allowed. While Ridley has been healthy and transcendent so far the Falcons defense has been a flaming pile of bad.
Atlanta’s defense is giving up a cool 39 points per game, ceding 38 points in week one and another 40 in last week’s come-from-ahead loss to the Cowboys. I expect the defense to improve, at least some – it almost has to – but they will continue to be one of the poorer defenses in the league, almost forcing the Falcons to throw a ton.
Gage has been able to put his well above-average speed to good use so far in 2020, ranking 15th in total air yards. Admittedly, those air yards are boosted by the sheer volume of targets that he’s seen so far in 2020 – his 21 targets are seventh most for wide receivers. Though I doubt that Gage is going to be a top-ten receiver in terms of targets come the end of the year, he should still be heavily involved for at least the near future. The Falcons running game is anemic both in the rushing and receiving aspects, and Julio Jones is dealing with a strained hamstring that will limit his effectiveness, at least for the near future. Gage saw 74 targets and should easily best that total this year.
Verdict: Stick
Yesterday I acquired Gage for a 2021 third-round rookie pick. Unless someone is willing to part with a second-rounder, Gage should remain on your roster.
Thank you for reading this inaugural edition of “Flip or Stick”. If you have any other players you’re looking for an opinion on please feel free to let me know in the comments or on Twitter @ShaneIsTheWorst.
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