IDP Dynasty Waiver Wire: Week Three
Oof. Does anyone remember a more injury-ravaged week of football than this one was? We knew we could expect this given the lack of a full training camp and no preseason, but yesterday’s games were kind of unreal. Let’s hope our players get stretched out as the season continues to ramp up, because nobody has fun winning simply by avoiding an injury landmine.
The gist of this column is simple: finding players who are either long-term dynasty fliers OR quality one-week rentals-you’ll tend to know which is which from my write-ups. We will be using two different avenues to uncover IDP talent.
The first measure will actually be a metric I invented, called Disruption Score (updated for the 2019-2020 season here). This metric specifically measures which players were most efficient at getting behind the line of scrimmage and affecting the quarterback’s normal motions, therefore “disrupting” the play. This metric has the most weight for DE/DT, but it can also show us which linebackers have multi-sack upside throughout the season if you are in big play scoring formats.
Secondly, I will purely assess the matchups for the upcoming week and give my best dart throws for that week. It is definitely the least concrete analysis I have posted, but a large part of fantasy football is going with your guys (and it has did very well in this article last year), so this is a section dedicated to that.
Year-to-Date waiver wire standings:
Disruption Score Adds~ 1 Hits, 2 Average, 1 Busts
Matchup-Based Adds~ 1 Hits, 1 Average, 1 Busts (Hendrickson pending MNF)
*“Busts” will be considered as players who ranked outside of the top 60 of their position for that week, “Hits” will be anyone who finishes within the top 25 of their position, and “Average” will be anyone in between.*
Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
Week Two Observations
- Krys Barnes, LB GB had a sack fumble call reversed in week two even though his snap share didn’t increase like I expected. He remains a young hold on the dynasty LB front, but unfortunately is not a reliable weekly starter yet.
- My observation from last week was this: “Jamal Adams’ departure from New York has allowed both Marcus Maye, S NYJ and Bradley McDougald, S NYJ to become worthy IDP contributors. Boring, but effective.” This has remained true through two weeks.
- I really hope you listened to my advice and picked up Joe Thomas, LB DAL because he balled out against the Falcons with 12 total tackles. He is the perfect person to short sell to whoever has Leighton Vander Esch, LB DAL if you read this article last week and scooped him up before they could do it, as he won’t have any value at all as soon as Vander Esch returns.
- While I thought Nick Vigil, LB LAC was in line for an expanded role after Drue Tranquill’s injury, it turns out it was a different Chargers linebacker (see below for more).
- For anyone who was worried about JJ Watt, DE HOU, don’t be. He returned to form with two sacks against Lamar Jackson, who is tough to bring down already.
- K’Lavon Chaisson, LB JAC, nearly had an interception in his debut game but it got called back. He made up to his IDP managers this week with a sack against the Titans. Showing a lot of promise and poise in his rookie season.
- Sione Takitaki, LB CLE performed well in terms of total tackles despite only playing 45% of the snaps against the Bengals on Thursday night. I expect his snap share to increase and his value to rise along with it.
- Domino effect: Blake Martinez, LB NYG moving from Green Bay to New York actually increased his IDP production, which I did not expect at all. The same goes for Christian Kirksey, LB GB, whose value also rose by inheriting Martinez’s old job in Green Bay. A rare win-win for IDP managers holding onto either of those guys and forced to see how a new landscape would pan out.
- Kyle Dugger, S NE had a solid first game last night against Seattle. While the Patriots roll out three safeties at an above-average rate, this does not bode well for Adrian Phillips, S NE. I’d look to move on for anything you could get before his value plummets.
- I’d ask around your league about Quinnen Williams, DL NYJ. Between the firearm drama and the production expected from a top three pick in the NFL, this is a great chance to buy-low on a phenomenal defensive prospect (still only 22 years old!) on a team begging for a star to produce.
Disruption Score Waiver Adds
Defensive Line
Kerry Hyder, DE SF (Disruption Score: 41.05)
Among all the injuries from Sunday, none are more devastating on the defensive side of the ball than the potential ACL tear of Nick Bosa. Solomon Thomas may have also gone down with an ACL tear in the same game, which is an absolute nightmare for the 49ers’ chances to get back to the Super Bowl. One bright light along their defensive line, however, was how well Kerry Hyder stepped in and made an instant impact.
Racking up eight(!) tackles and two QB hits, Hyder has earned himself a permanent place along this defensive line known for making big plays behind the genius of Robert Saleh, regardless of any veterans they may bring in. Hyder is the biggest priority add this week for those in need of help along the defensive line.
Josh Sweat, DE PHI (Disruption Score: 39.41)
Just when you think Sweat’s week one performance against Washington was a flash in the pan primarily due to the absence of Derek Barnett and Javon Hargrave, Sweat came out in week two as the most productive lineman in Philadelphia in terms of IDP production. Vinny Curry and Hargrave seem to be out for a while, leaving Sweat as the primary beneficiary for the time being.
Sweat was the second-highest graded PFF edge defender after week one (earning a grade of 91.9), and lived up to his expectations against an improved Rams offensive line in week two. Sweat is a young player who may be establishing his rhythm after a rocky start to his career, and is an excellent insurance policy at the very least for someone who has benefitted from starting the Eagles’ DL for the past several years.
Jacob Tuioti-Mariner, DT ATL (Disruption Score: 19.32)
24-year-old Tuioti-Mariner had himself a day against the Cowboys, racking up five solo tackles in the comeback game of the week. Tuioti-Mariner only played one snap in week one against the Seahawks, but after this level of tackle production, this is a name worth monitoring over the next few weeks to see if he turns into a viable interior defensive lineman. He isn’t a priority add, but after a quiet rookie season, there’s almost no way you are aware of this 2018 undrafted free agent unless you are reading this article.
Linebacker
Kevin Pierre-Louis and Jon Bostic, LBs WAS (Disruption Score: 19.12 and 24.11)
Two for one! My oh my, Kevin Pierre-Louis. Somehow after accruing an astonishing 15 total tackles (ten solo!), teammate Jon Bostic still had enough real estate for seven tackles of his own, including a sack. What started as a team full of woes and was decimated by injuries before the season even began has turned into a decent defensive unit, and a goldmine for IDP assets. Jack Del Rio has done an outstanding job getting the most production out of his players as he can possibly get, making Bostic (70% owned) and Pierre-Louis (22% owned) must-have linebackers for the 2020 season.
Defensive Back
Mike Hilton, CB PIT (Disruption Score: 29.82)
I know this is usually only a statistic for defensive linemen and linebackers, but this Disruption Score out of a defensive back is simply unreal. For reference, even the league’s best safety Jamal Adams regularly posts between a 10-15 Disruption Score on average. Mike Tomlin loves using Hilton both as a slot corner and as an additional rusher, leaving Hilton as a mega boom-bust defensive back candidate.
He may not be a locked and loaded IDP starter, but when Pittsburgh goes up against teams with weak offensive lines or young, inaccurate quarterbacks (he also lit up Daniel Jones for a sack along with four other tackles last week), Hilton is among the most likely Steelers to come out of the week with a splash play. Oh, and Pittsburgh’s next opponent? The Houston Texans, where Deshaun Watson has been running for his life ever since he became a pro.
Matchup-Based Waiver Adds
Defensive Line
Tyson Alualu, DE PIT (Week Three, vs. Houston)
I’ve stopped trying to get cute when deciding which Steeler to play, because the answer at this point is simply as many of them as you have on your team. Pittsburgh has gotten at least one sack in 59 straight games now (only ten games away from the all-time record), and had an astounding seven total sacks against a Denver team that was not sacked at all against a stout Tennessee Titans defense.
Pittsburgh’s defensive efficiency has been on an entirely different stratosphere than the rest of the NFL through two weeks, and they show no signs of slowing down after possibly having the league’s best defense in 2019 as well. Deshaun Watson has sacked eight times in two weeks, and I fully expect Alualu to continue his hot start (nine tackles, one sack, one pass broken up) into next week’s matchup over the likes of Stephon Tuitt.
Adam Gotsis, DE JAC (Week Three, vs. Miami)
Much like Houston, Miami is another offensive line that has been completely manhandled through two showings. The Jaguars are still trying to discover their new defensive identity after only one player remains from their dominant 2016 season, and my best dart throw for someone to sneak behind the line and get to the quarterback is Adam Gotsis.
The 27-year-old defensive end had a couple of productive years in Denver, but his new role in Jacksonville really gives him a chance to be a featured edge defender for a team that has been in two close battles to start the season. Gotsis has a nice tackle floor even if he isn’t able to bring down Ryan Fitzpatrick next week, leaving him as a safer plug and play option should one of your primary IDP assets suffer from any soft tissue injuries in practice this week.
Linebacker
Kyzir White, LB LAC (Week Three, vs. Carolina)
That’s it. I’m ready for White to break my heart again. I bought into White as an IDP stud in both 2018 and 2019, before finding myself cutting him in a matter of weeks in both occasions. But 2020 is a new year and quarantine has felt like a decade has passed, so why not go back to an old flame for one last-ditch effort!! The Chargers linebacker position has historically been one of IDP gold, and the problem over the past few seasons has been trying to figure out who the new Denzel Perryman was.
While it is very clearly their rookie first-round pick Kenneth Murray, White has had a pretty nice game against Kansas City as his right-hand man. Facing off against a Panthers team that loves running with Christian McCaffrey and dumping off passes in the short intermediate area of the field, White may very well find himself extremely busy next week. This is a guy to scoop up (one last time, I swear!) and I would even suggest playing next week in what should be an up-tempo matchup.
Ben Niemann, LB KC (Week Three, @ Baltimore)
While Anthony Hitchens and Damien Wilson are probably already rostered in your IDP leagues (if not, grab them immediately!), Niemann is a third viable linebacker you could roll out in your week three matchup against the Ravens. Baltimore surrendered 25 total tackles to Houston’s two primary linebackers on Sunday, while Kansas City’s three linebackers mentioned above racked up 30 total tackles in their wild comeback win against the Chargers.
Niemann isn’t the sexiest name out there, but he is someone you could plug in to get the job done in a lights-out fight next week while hoping for a Monday night miracle, if your league mates beat you to the punch on some other waiver claims.
Defensive Backs
Khari Willis, S IND (Week Three, vs. New York Jets)
Malik Hooker is likely out for the season with an Achilles injury, leaving the 2019 fourth-round pick as the next man up. Willis is already off to a nice start to 2020 with a sack in week one against the Jaguars and an interception in week two against the Vikings (but who didn’t get an INT off Kirk Cousins….am I right??).
Willis should raise his production floor with a big boost in playing time against a putrid Jets team rolling out one or two healthy wide receivers at the moment. Willis could feast as the Jets struggle to come back throughout the second half.
Lastly, I would just like to give a heartfelt thank you to James “The Brain” Koutoulas (@_JamesTheBrain) and send my deepest condolences to his family. James was nothing but a shining light in the fantasy football community and I will always remember him for his graciousness and positive outlook on life. Thank you, James. We lost a great man this weekend. RIP.
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 17 - December 28, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 16 - December 21, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 15 - December 15, 2020
