Rookie Report Card: James Robinson and Joshua Kelley
Each week throughout the season, I’ll cover at least two rookies in the Rookie Report Card and try to always include the biggest performers from that particular week. On top of reviewing my expectations for each player coming into the league and how well he’s lived up to those expectations at the NFL level to this point, I’ll grade the player in three categories – performance to date, rookie season potential and long-term upside.p
The series kicks off this season with a look at a pair of relatively surprising performances in week one by Joshua Kelley and James Robinson.
Joshua Kelley, RB LAC
Week One Stats: 12 carries, 60 yards, one touchdown
Coming out of UCLA, Kelley was expected to be a between-the-tackles thumper who could get what was blocked, break arm tackles and hold his own as a pass-catcher when needed. He profiled as a backup with the potential to contribute when called upon but lacked the elusiveness and vision to be a full-time running back at the next level. Like many, I overlooked him initially.
Then his performance at the Senior Bowl (15 carries, 105 yards) where he showed a solid cutback on multiple runs and enough burst to get to the second and third level made me take a second look. After spending some time watching him as a Bruin, it was clear Kelley may have been typecast. While he possesses the typical size (5’-11”, 215 pounds) and power of an interior rusher, it appeared the lack of talent across the UCLA offensive line was holding him back from showing everything he could do.
When Kelley posted surprising quickness numbers at the combine – including a 4.49-second 40-yard dash – and followed that up being drafted by the Chargers in the fourth round, he instantly became a priority third-round pick in dynasty rookie drafts many dynasty managers.
Since being drafted as the tenth running back off the board, we’ve only heard whispers out of Los Angeles about how the Chargers were expecting to use Kelley with incumbent Austin Ekeler and backup Justin Jackson but it was clear in week one the rookie would be a relatively big part of their offensive game plan.
Kelley turned 12 carries into 60 yards and a short-yardage touchdown in his debut against the Bengals. While Ekeler handled more of the workload (20 touches, 87 yards), Kelley was getting the valuable touches in the red zone.
While it remains to be seen if Kelley has the goal-line role to himself in Los Angeles, it appears due to his multiple carries inside the ten-yard line in week one that’s the case. If that’s true, he projects as a useful – although unspectacular due to his lack of passing game work – flex play in the short term.
If nothing else, Kelley should already have dynasty managers thinking if given the chance he can be productive. If he ever has the opportunity to be a lead tailback – whether by injury to Ekeler or some other means, he’d have mid-RB2 upside.
With all that said, however, despite my strong feelings for Kelley as a sleeper in the third round of rookie drafts over the spring and summer, he’s unlikely to ever have a backfield to himself so I’d be happy to move him for a mid-second round draft pick or player of that value after a solid start to his career.
James Robinson, RB JAC
Week One Stats: 16 carries, 62 yards, one reception, 28 receiving yards
Like many, I had never heard of Robinson until reports out of Jaguars’ training camp surfaced that he was making noise as an undrafted free agent. As it turned out, he was a standout for the Illinois State Redbirds. Running for more than 3,500 yards and 39 touchdowns over his final three years of college, he showed good vision to find running room and a knack for timing his cuts before running downhill through FCS defenses. He eluded tacklers, showed good balance to gain yards after contacts and displayed a knack for reading blocks before they happened.
With impressive athleticism (40” vertical) for his size (5’-9”, 219 pounds) and excellent production in college, it appeared to many that Robinson would have some rookie season potential but I had a hard time buying into the hype considering his lack of speed (4.64-second 40-yard dash) and inability – even against lower-level college talent – to make defenders miss in the open field. Instead, he leaned on running through tackles, posting more yards after contact (1,332) than any other college running back. Still, I wasn’t sold.
When the Jaguars released starter Leonard Fournette days before the NFL season and reports surfaced that Robinson and second-year tailback Devine Ozigbo were looked at as three-down tailbacks by the Jacksonville coaching staff, I took another look at Robinson’s college tape and while his skills as an interior runner were apparent, he struggled on the outside – particularly when he was forced to re-accelerate after slowing to make a cutback.
Because of those weaknesses, I chose to invest in the days leading up to the season in Ozigbo rather than Robinson. While I’m not profiting off Ozigbo (who went on injured reserve with a hamstring injury), I’m still not upset about avoiding Robinson.
Although his 90 yards from scrimmage including a few solid runs along with the fact he carried 100% of the rushing workload for the Jags may have turned some dynasty managers’ heads, Robinson was far from efficient. Averaging just 3.4 yards per carry, he fell forward through tacklers and got what was blocked but failed to get more than that on nearly every opportunity in week one. His only eyebrow-raising play came on a swing pass in the fourth quarter where he hurdled a Colts’ defender on his way to a 28-yard pickup.
All things told, Robinson is a hard runner, gaining yardage with vision and effort, but lacks difference-making skills to be a long-term factor for dynasty managers. While he appears to be a flex consideration as a rookie due to the lack of depth at running back for the Jaguars, it’s unlikely he’ll ever be a consistent contributor in anybody’s starting lineup.
The DLF trade tool shows Robinson brought a future second-round pick in multiple leagues in recent days. I wouldn’t be able to click accept fast enough if I saw that trade offer.
- League Tycoon: Dynasty Salary Cap Fantasy Football - December 15, 2023
- Final Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Wide Receivers, Part Two - March 22, 2023
- 2023 NFL Scouting Combine: Offensive Player Dynasty Review - March 10, 2023
