DLF Writers Rookie Mock Draft, Round One
A very long, odd summer in so many ways is finally behind us and now we get to head into what might be an equally long, odd fall. The good news is that at least for now, the NFL is back! Hopefully, they can have the same success that some of the other leagues have had and are able to keep everyone safe while still providing a little respite and entertainment for us at home.
The week before the season kicked off, I was joined by eleven of DLF’s finest to conduct one more rookie mock draft. We didn’t have the normal NFL summer programs to help us evaluate all of the rookies as well as helping them earn bigger roles to open the season. However, there have been a few significant occurrences recently so a value check is definitely in order.
The rules for the mock draft were pretty simple. We drafted as if the league was PPR scoring and only one quarterback in starting lineups. No trades were allowed and the draft order was randomly generated. Even though we drafted with one starting quarterback in mind, I’ll provide some of our thoughts on where the quarterbacks might be valued in a superflex league.
Note: Remember that this mock was conducted before week one kicked off, and the first two rounds of the write-up were finished before then as well.
Top Dogs:
1.01 – Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB KC
1.02 – Jonathan Taylor, RB IND
In virtually every rookie draft since the NFL draft, these two have been at the top. Immediately following the NFL draft, there was still some debate about which player should be the 1.01 and there was a solid argument to be made for each of them. CEH had the better draft capital, the more explosive offense, and a better short term outlook. Taylor had more college production, better measurables, and arguably more overall talent. However, after Damien Williams opted out of the year, CEH was essentially handed the every down role.
This means that even the biggest Taylor supporters, like me, are forced to admit that CEH is the best choice at 1.01. With that said, I still believe the Taylor has superstar upside and is much better at catching the ball than most people realize.
The Next Tier:
1.03 – JK Dobbins, RB BAL
1.04 – Jalen Reagor, WR PHI
1.05 – D’Andre Swift, RB DET
1.06 – Cam Akers, RB LAR
1.07 – CeeDee Lamb, WR DAL
1.08 – Jerry Jeudy, WR DEN
After the top two running backs in this draft class, the next six guys can go in almost any order. We all have our personal preferences. I believe Reagor should be the third receiver taken in this draft class, not the first, but I think the value of these six are very comparable. None of them are perfect prospects, but all six of them bring something to the table which makes you think they could be every week starters on your fantasy lineup for years to come.
Unfortunately, history tells us that at least half of this group will be on the fantasy scrap pile in about three years.
In my own personal rankings, I have Swift and Dobbins very close together with a slight edge to Swift. Depending on roster and league scoring, I could shift them before or after the top receivers.
The reason I prefer Swift to Dobbins is that I am concerned if anyone will get enough carries in Baltimore to be a high end RB1 week in and week out. They use a lot of people to carry the ball and have arguably the best one under center. I don’t see Dobbins being able to sustain 15 plus touches per game or scoring double digit touchdowns in this system anytime soon, which might limit him to RB2 level even if he has the talent to be better. Meanwhile, Detroit is hungry for someone who can do it all, which I believe Swift can do.
Akers is a fair amount behind the other two rushers in my book. I just don’t see anything super special about him. Don’t get me wrong, I think he can be an NFL starter and a solid RB2 on rosters, but that is about where I put his ceiling. I think he’s more of a second half of the first round guy, but I asked the one and only Frank Gruber, who drafted Akers in this mock, for his thoughts. Frank said, “Combine results, draft capital, landing spot and camp reports have cemented him there in my book. He belongs in the top half of the first round.”
When it comes to this trio of receivers, I know that Reagor had a great landing spot and there is a lot to like about his profile. However, I feel it is a mistake to have him as the top receiver in this draft class. I much prefer Jeudy and Lamb. I think that Jeudy and Lamb are in contention for the 1.03 slot in this year’s draft. I think Lamb has the much better situation of the two as I don’t trust Denver to put together a high quality offense anytime soon, but I think Jeudy is the slightly better overall talent.
As for Reagor, I’m not looking his way until the end of the first round, which means he isn’t going to be on any of my teams. However, John DiBari, who drafted Reagor with the 1.04 ahead of both Jeudy and Lamb, firmly believes he is deserving of the fourth if not third pick in rookie drafts, so there is a wide range of opinions on him.
End of the First Round:
1.09 – Justin Jefferson, WR MIN
1.10 – Henry Ruggs, WR LV
1.11 – Michael Pittman, WR IND
1.12 – Antonio Gibson, RB WAS
Looking at these four players, my favorite is Pittman. I believe he has the combination of size, athletic ability, football IQ, hands, and situation to be an every week starter for the Colts and your fantasy team by the start of 2021. I think he makes a great complement to the skills that Parris Campbell brings to the team, and I think that duo could be dynamite as the starting receivers once the Colts let contract-year TY Hilton walk away. Pittman is actually in the running to be my third receiver in this draft class.
Jefferson brings with him one of the clearest paths to fantasy relevance out of any of the receivers. He immediate steps into the hole left by Stefon Diggs and could easily be the most productive of the rookie receivers in 2020. There is a lot to like about him, but I don’t know if he has the same ceiling as some of the other receivers. I think he’s more of a number two receiver in the NFL, but with a very high floor. If he could add a little bit of muscle while still keeping his quickness, I would like him even more.
If you like speed, which we all know the Raiders do, Ruggs is of course your man! Ruggs is definitely talented, but I feel he is incomplete when it comes to a skill set. I also have major concerns about his ability to produce consistently for your fantasy team, especially given the current state of the Raiders’ passing game. Outside of Josh Jacobs, I don’t think I am overly excited to own any Raiders player right now.
That brings us to the final pick of the first round, Gibson. This draft pick was made just before the release of Adrian Peterson, which had me rather surprised that he was selected in the first round. I felt he was more of a middle second round selection at the point the mock draft was held. However, now that Peterson has been released, I feel like this is about the right place for a lot of people, if not closer to the top of this grouping than the bottom. I asked Tan Ho who drafted him where he has Gibson, and he said he was ahead of Ruggs and Pittman, so the 1.10. Keep in mind this was before Peterson was released, so there are definitely people who believe Gibson has bellcow ability and that he is going to be worth a middle first round rookie pick right now.
That’s it for the first round. The second round is on its way soon!
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
