Cornerstone Report: Week One
Welcome to the Cornerstone Report. This weekly in-season series focuses on the NFL rookie class and the projected 2021 rookie class.
It uses tools including our Dynasty Trade Analyzer, the DLF Trade Finder, average draft position and DLF rankings to compare player values.
Be sure to check out the full in-season DLF publishing schedule here.
NCAA WEEK 2
Cam’Ron Harris, RB Miami (FL)
Harris was a four-star, top 200 national recruit from the famed Miami Carol City prep program. As a true freshman, he rushed for 166 yards on 28 carries. Last year he evenly split carries with eventual fourth-round NFL Draft pick DeeJay Dallas. He figures to be the Canes’ lead back in 2020.
Statistics from Sports Reference.
He often lowers his shoulder rather than stringing together a series of moves, but his style is still effective.
Cam'Ron Harris had 138 yards AFTER contact in Wk 2.
More than any power-five player had total rush yards. pic.twitter.com/Av1wgTDJSg
— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 16, 2020
At 5’10” and 200 pounds he has a solid, compact build and a thick base. His lateral agility and top-end speed are adequate but not elite.
Cam'Ron Harris. HE GONE 💨💨
Touchdown @CanesFootball 🙌 pic.twitter.com/67TzY4sgeG
— ACC Network (@accnetwork) September 11, 2020
Every touch from his 144-yard week one performance can be seen here.
Harris is barely on the radar of the devy community. He is outside both the top 75 of the DLF Devy ADP and the DLF Devy Rankings. He is unlikely to be rostered in all but the deepest devy leagues. Therefore, most of us will have to wait until rookie drafts to acquire him.
Expect Harris to lead the Canes backfield with the exciting D’Eriq King at quarterback and promising freshman Jaylan Knighton at running back. His versatility, production and pedigree could push him to the late second round of rookie drafts if he can sneak into day three of the NFL draft.
The Texas Trio
The Texas Longhorns put up 689 yards of offense in their 59-3 win over UTEP. Sam Ehlinger threw for 426 yards on just 33 attempts. Keaontay Ingram rushed for 9-44-0 (with no receptions) and wide receiver Brennan Eagles produced this highlight grab.
WHAT A CATCH! 🦅#ThisIsTexas #HookEm @_BrennanEagles_ pic.twitter.com/k4ktUw0w4F
— Texas Football (@TexasFootball) September 13, 2020
Unfortunately, it was Eagles’ only catch of the game.
Ehlinger, Ingram and Eagles are all draft-eligible. The latter two have been on the devy radar since enrolling at Austin, and Ehlinger has thrown for nearly 9,300 yards and 73 touchdowns while rushing for another 1,500 yards and 25 TDs.
Statistics from Sports Reference.
So why would I suggest fading all three? Projection. Ehlinger projects as an undrafted free agent. Despite his gaudy college production, a quick look at adjusted yards per pass attempt reveals inefficiency. A career AY/A of 8.2 puts him more in the neighborhood of EJ Manuel and Josh Rosen than Tua Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray.
Ingram remains a top-35 devy asset per both DLF Devy ADP and rankings. However, he risks being overtaken on the field by converted quarterback Roschon Johnson. He has already been overtaken in both ADP and our devy rankings by super-recruit Bijan Robinson, despite the fact Robinson has just five career collegiate rushing attempts.
While Ingram retains his devy value (for now), Eagles has seen it slip away. The former top-40 devy asset is down to #57 in ADP and is ranked outside our top 75. Eagles managed a 32-522-6 receiving line behind two eventual NFL draft picks in 2019, but he needs to produce more than the occasional highlight catch to be a relevant dynasty asset. On a day that saw Ehlinger throw for 426 yards, just one catch for Eagles is cause for concern given his inconsistent history.
NFL WEEK One
JK Dobbins, RB BAL
We expected Dobbins to overtake Mark Ingram this season, but did it happen in week one? Ingram out-touched Dobbins ten to seven but Dobbins led the backfield in snaps and the quality of his touches was fantastic. He had two touchdown carries within the five-yard line, one of which was in the second quarter. His was not garbage time production.
Ingram hardly looks upset by the possibility of being overtaken (best with sound on).
Mark Ingram making sure JK Dobbins gets his first touchdown ball.
There isn’t a better teammate than number 21. pic.twitter.com/IzPjfsJ6m6
— Kip Smithers (@Chughes612) September 16, 2020
Even in shallow leagues, Dobbins is a viable starting option. The Ravens have an elite rushing attack. In 2019 they led the NFL in rushing attempts and yards, and would have ranked 13th in rushing attempts and eighth in rushing yards even after subtracting Lamar Jackson’s numbers. Their 33.2 points per game were eight percent more than the second-best team (San Francisco).
Our ADP Over Time tool lets you compare the ADP values over a custom period of time for one or more players. Both Dobbins and Ingram have held relatively steady since the NFL draft.
Dobbins came in as the 1.04 pick in DLF Rookie ADP (and RB4). His September Startup Dynasty ADP of 29 puts him as overall RB15 between Aaron Jones and Cam Akers.
The Dynasty Trade Analyzer uses an algorithm combining DLF rankings, ADP data and actual MyFantasyLeague trades to arrive at player and pick values. It values Dobbins roughly in line with two 2021 first-round rookie picks. In terms of players, D’Andre Swift, Aaron Jones, Julio Jones and Lamar Jackson (in one-QB leagues) have similar values.
Finally, how has Dobbins been valued since Sunday’s performance? The DLF Trade Finder pulls trade data from live MFL leagues and is customizable per league settings. Recent trades involving Dobbins include the following:
- 9-15-20: JK Dobbins, Year 2021 round one draft pick for WR DeAndre Hopkins
- 9-12-20: JK Dobbins for WR Deebo Samuel, Year 2021 round one draft pick
- 9-9-20: JK Dobbins for RB James Conner, RB Devin Singletary, Year 2020 round two draft pick
- 9-8-20: JK Dobbins for WR Calvin Ridley, WR N’Keal Harry, TE Tyler Higbee
I hope you enjoyed this edition of the Cornerstone Report. Find me on twitter at @threedownhack as we uncover the next cornerstone players.
- 20/20: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama - February 26, 2022
- Cornerstone Report: Week Nine - November 12, 2021
- Cornerstone Report: Week Eight - November 5, 2021
