The IDP Effects of the Yannick Ngakoue Trade

Drew Dodson

This off-season has been a wild ride for Yannick Ngakoue and for the fantasy managers who have him on their rosters. He was given the franchise tag before the draft, but he refused to sign it. He eventually came out and stated he wasn’t interested in signing a long-term deal with the Jaguars. Since February there has been plenty of speculation around him being traded, but nothing ever came of it.

Finally, in the week leading up to the NFL season, a deal got done in which he was traded to the Minnesota Vikings for a 2021 second-round pick and a conditional 2022 fifth-round pick. This pick can improve to a fourth-round pick if Ngakoue is a first-team Pro Bowl selection, and it can become a third-round pick if he is selected as a first-team Pro Bowler and the Vikings win the Super Bowl.

Impact on the Vikings

Ngakoue will eventually play opposite Danielle Hunter this season, replacing Everson Griffen who was not re-signed after the 2019 season. But he will have to wait, as Hunter was placed on Injured Reserve and will miss at least the first three weeks of the year. Jalyn Holmes and Ifeadi Odenigbo could see more action in his absence.

On paper, this appears to be one of the better landing spots for Ngakoue, as the Vikings defense has a strong history of producing IDP relevant defensive ends under Mike Zimmer. Hunter has obviously been a stud for most of his career, having produced three seasons over 12 sacks in the last four years. However, Griffen hasn’t been a slouch either. He’s had eight or more sacks in five of his six seasons since Zimmer took over as head coach, and the only season he missed the eight sack mark was in 2018 when he only played 11 games.

I believe this year could be Ngakoue’s best statistical season just purely based on volume. Jacksonville’s defense has played a nearly identical amount of yearly snaps on average as Minnesota’s defense has since Zimmer arrived. Despite this, Ngakoue’s highest annual snap count is the same as Griffen’s lowest annual snap count (excluding his injury-shortened season). This tells me Zimmer is more likely to keep his two starting defensive ends on the field for a greater majority of snaps which will give him more opportunities to produce.

This higher snap count bodes well for Ngakoue who has been a steady producer in his first four years. He’s averaged 30.5 tackles a season, almost 9.5 sacks, and 10.5 tackles-for-loss. He has managed to produce while only playing 72.5% of the snaps in Jacksonville. He may not have high-end DL1 production, but he will be a steady, high-level producer.

Impact on the Jaguars

Now that we’ve talked about the direct effects on Ngakoue, let’s take a look at what his departure means for Jacksonville’s defensive line. I don’t think this moves the needle much for Josh Allen besides making him the top defensive end on the team for the moment. It does, however, create a drastic shift for K’Lavon Chaisson. He has now been moved to defensive end on MFL and every other fantasy site. This is a huge boon for his value, and with the role secured he could be the best defensive end on the roster in a year.

Chaisson out of the gates will likely be a better run defender than Ngakoue has been which gives him a higher tackle floor. This will be good for fantasy consistency. He isn’t quite on Ngakoue’s level as a pass rusher yet, but with some more polish, it is certainly reasonable for him to reach or even surpass his level. Chaisson is also going to be one the best defensive lineman in coverage if the abilities he showed in college translate to the NFL. He may not be a fantasy stud out of the gate, especially with the shortened off-season, but if he shows flashes of playing at a high level I would be willing to move him up into my tier three of defensive lineman.

I know the Jaguars have gotten some flack for the price they traded Ngakoue away for, but if it was the best offer they got then I think it was actually a smart move for the organization. Even if you ignore the fact Ngakoue didn’t want to sign there long term, they already have a more than solid defensive end in Chaisson waiting in the wings. This way they are going to get him on the field early and help him develop along with Allen and they acquired capital to help rebuild their team going forward.

As for the Vikings, they are a team that is aiming for a Super Bowl and they want to ensure their pass rush will give opposing teams fits. Ngakoue may not be the same caliber of player as Khalil Mack, but for the difference in price, I say they made the smart move for their organization as well.

If you have any thoughts or questions please comment below, and if you drafted Chaisson in zero places like me because you were concerned about his early linebacker designation, then comment below or tweet me @DrewDodsonNFL and we can commiserate.

Note: All tackle and snap count data from Pro Football Reference.