Hold On for One More Day: Odell Beckham

Josh Brickner

It was Carnie Wilson, Wendy Wilson, and Chyna Phillips who famously sang:

Some day somebody’s gonna make you

Want to turn around and say goodbye

Until then, baby, are you going to let them

Hold you down and make you cry?

Don’t you know?

Don’t you know things can change

Things’ll go your way

If you hold on for one more day

Can you hold on for one more day

Things’ll go your way

Hold on for one more day

The younger generation may be unaware of the 1990 hit “Hold On” by Wilson Phillips, but it’s a banger. No matter the challenges in my personal and/or professional life, hearing those three young women’s angelic voices and the climactic drum solo automatically improves my mood 1000%. The message of the song is simple; no matter the obstacles we experience in life, we must look inward and live life one day at a time to overcome them.

This message not only resonates in the current state of global affairs, but in the dynasty football landscape as well. Each dynasty degenerate has a story of a player who they paid a hefty price to acquire only for said player to lay an egg the following season. While some folks get so enraged they will sell this dynasty asset simply out of spite, the smart dynasty player holds on until he can get appropriate value in return. This series will highlight those post-hype players who need to stay parked on your dynasty roster.

If Baker Mayfield was the Cleveland Browns’ star of dynasty disappointment in 2019, Odell Beckham was the key supporting actor in the Cleveland Cluster of last season. While the former New York receiver left much to be desired by his performance, now is NOT the time to sell him for pennies on the dollar.

“YOU GOT YOURSELF INTO YOUR OWN MESS”

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It might be tough to remember since the last six months have felt like ten years, but OBJ was a first-round startup pick a season ago. In fact, the LSU alum had a top-two ADP from 2016 through the majority of 2018.

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Beckham Jr’s 2019 peak off-season value is no more apparent than in the two above trades (trade analyzer values are current) from last April. Both Alvin Kamara (RB4) and Ezekiel Elliot (RB5) were coming off top-five fantasy finishes in 2018 and were hot dynasty commodities even with Zeke’s threat of a holdout.

In the same vein, the trade last July from a likely contender selling their draft capital cringeworthy a year later. If you traded the 1.01 and a 2021 first straight up for the Browns receiver today, you’ll be closer to getting accused of collusion than winning the championship.

“…GONNA MAKE YOU WANT TO TURN AROUND AND SAY GOODBYE”

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Both the Browns and their recent acquisition at wide receiver failed to meet their lofty expectations in 2019. Beckham had his lowest statistical output (74-1,035-4) and fantasy finish (WR25) of his career when playing all 16 games. Worse yet, he constantly disappointed his dynasty GMs as he only finished inside the top 24 at his position in four out of 16 weeks (25%).

“DON’T YOU KNOW THINGS CAN CHANGE”

Year Age Tm G Tgt Rec Yds TD Fantasy Finish
2014 22 NYG 12 130 91 1,305 12 WR7
2015 23 NYG 15 158 96 1,450 13 WR5
2016 24 NYG 16 169 101 1,367 10 WR4
2017 25 NYG 4 41 25 302 3 WR82
2018 26 NYG 12 124 77 1,052 6 WR15
2019 27 CLE 16 133 74 1,035 4 WR25
Total 75 755 464 6,511 48

 

A healthy OBJ not only has a top 15 floor, but a top-five ceiling. The former LSU Tiger’s fantasy body of work during his first three seasons helped bring home trophies to dynasty owners and cemented him as the top two asset mentioned earlier. Beckham was slowed by a sports hernia injury last season which (combined with questionable offensive game planning I’ll discuss below) contributed to his subpar campaign. Expect a bounce-back season from the fit, rejuvenated former Pro Bowler.

Cleaning Out the Kitchens

I covered this more in-depth in my article on Mayfield, but Freddie Kitchens might have been the worst Browns coach of the modern era. Former offensive coordinator Todd Monken said the team would steer away from the game plan they worked on all week once the game got started at Kitchens’ urging.

While it’s too early to know any specifics on new coach Kevin Stefanski, he seems to possess a trait missing from Kitchens… competence. Look for Beckham and the entire Browns offense to be more dynamic and fantasy-friendly in 2020.

HOLD ON FOR ONE MORE DAY”

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What a difference a year makes as the Cleveland receiver finds himself as the 12th receiver and 34th overall player off the board in August DLF startup mock drafts. This freefall in ADP coincides with certain dynasty participants panic selling Beckham way below his value.

While a 2021 first-round rookie selection is a valuable asset for both a contending and rebuilding squad, Will Fuller is not. The Texans receiver has missed 20 games over the past three seasons and cannot be trusted as a weekly starting option on your dynasty squad. Fuller is 26 going on 40; therefore if you’re trading away Beckham, please look for a better asset in return than ‘Sammy Watkins junior’.

The same can be said for the second deal featuring Melvin Gordon. The DLF Trade Analyzer grades the deal as almost even, but there’s more than meets the eye. Gordon might still be a popular name in the dynasty community, but his actual value no longer matches his perceived value. The former Charger is likely to cede much of the passing-down work to teammate Phillip Lindsay. Again, this trade is the classic example of a knee-jerk reaction of a dynasty manager who will almost take anything in return for the Cleveland pass-catcher.

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This article advocates holding on to dynasty assets as opposed to selling low out of fear. Yet, if you receive an offer like the one above, I’m good with taking the anti-Wilson Phillips route. DJ Chark is a 23-year-old size/speed receiving specimen with a year of proven success in the league. He offers WR1 upside in both the short and long term which is beneficial for contenders and rebuilders alike. If you’re looking to move Beckham at the moment, target a future first (preferably 2021) and one of the next generation of elite dynasty wide receivers (Chark, Terry McLaurin, Courtland Sutton, etc).

“THINGS’LL GO YOUR WAY”

I get it; the last year of having Odell Beckham on your dynasty roster has been the opposite of fun and likely gotten you further from the ultimate goal of bringing home the ‘Ship. Though the appropriate way forward is NOT to trade away the Brown for scraps in fear of the ultimate downfall. This is the move of a dynasty squad striving for constant mediocrity and how you’ll end up with a squad full of Will Fullers.

The smart and savvy dynasty GM waits until the perfect moment to strike a deal for OBJ which allows them to get the most value in return. The Browns’ number one receiver expects 2020 to be one of the best years yet in his career. Even if he fails to live up to those lofty expectations, once Beckham puts together several top-flight fantasy performances early in the season you should be able to sell high for a maximum profit.

josh brickner