Week One Positional Rankings

As dynasty enthusiasts, the off-season is the heart it of all. NFL Free Agency, the NFL Draft, rookie hype trains, and preseason victory laps have all lead to this one moment: week one. As a subscriber to DLF, we know you’ve already won your off-season; now’s the time to gear up those weekly lineups and start racking up wins en route to a championship.

In this series, I’ll give you my top 30 quarterbacks, 60 running backs, 60 wide receivers, and 30 tight ends each week to help you with your start/sit decisions in your leagues. To generate this list each and every week, I examine team trends, Vegas over/unders, implied points, pace of play, among various other factors to build a projection for each player and subsequently adjust rankings for upside and more detailed matchup specifics.

Among the rankings, there will surely be some that surprise you or that you may disagree with. At the end of each position section, I’ll give you my thoughts on some players that perhaps are ranked higher/lower than you might expect and insights as to why they are a good/bad play this week. Ultimately, these rankings should help your start/sit dilemmas and ensure you have the requisite resources to make an informed decision.

Without further ado, let’s dive into week one’s positional rankings!

Quarterback

Start ‘em: Cam Newton, QB MIA

It’s unclear which Newton we will get in 2020, but we’re going to find out right away. It’s no secret that he is one of the best mobile quarterbacks in the game when healthy – that translates to fantasy points. In week one, Newton and the Patriots get the Miami Dolphins in Foxboro. In 2019, Miami was a matchup dream for opposing quarterbacks, allowing the second-most fantasy points to the position. With a 24.75 implied team total and as 6.5 point favorites, New England should be able to move the ball well against Miami. Starting Newton is a risky play no doubt, but he has top-three quarterback upside this week. Start him as a low-end QB1 or higher if you’re a fantasy underdog.

Sit ‘em: Ryan Tannehill, QB TEN

There was no QB switch more impactful in the 2019 NFL season than the Tennessee Titans going from Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill’s presence was felt in fantasy football, where he was the QB3 – that’s right, QB3 – in fantasy points per game from week seven onwards. Dynasty players are hoping for more of the same in 2020.

From a fantasy football lens, Tannehill’s week one matchup is worrisome. Analytically, he is unlikely to sustain his outlier 7.7% touchdown rate from 2019. He threw 22 touchdowns on just 286 pass attempts. For context, over a standard 550 passing attempt season, that would be a whopping 42 touchdowns. There three main concerns for Tannehill in week one: a low implied team total, a below-average matchup, and overall volume and efficiency concerns.

The Titans have an implied team total of just 20.75 points, the ninth-lowest in week one. They go on the road to play at Denver, a team that allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs last season. Overall, this game has the second-lowest over/unders on the week: just 42.5 points. While the Titans are small favorites, don’t expect a shootout. Overall, this is a matchup to avoid. Tannehill will be a good fantasy option throughout the season, but look elsewhere for week one.

If you’re desperate: Tyrod Taylor, QB LAC

Taylor is one of those quarterbacks you never envision needing to start in fantasy football, but week one offers a good matchup for the veteran. While traveling on the road, the Chargers have a solid 23 implied team total, which ranks about middle of the pack for week one. They rank as the projected seventh highest-scoring road team on the week. The Chargers have solid weapons; Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Hunter Henry all are top options are their positions.

Taylor scores fantasy points with more than just his arm. In three full seasons starting in Buffalo, he rushed for over 400 yards and four touchdowns in every season. As Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Kyler Murray showed last season, a solid rushing floor can go a long way for fantasy production. The Bengals are no stranger to rushing quarterbacks, but in 2019, the allowed nearly 500 yards on the ground to opposing QBs, the most in the league. Of course, they faced Jackson twice, but they allowed big games to Allen, Murray, and Gardner Minshew via the rush last year as well. Overall, this is a solid matchup to start Taylor. Play him confidently as a QB2 in superflex or as a high-upside play in 1QB formats.

Running Back

Start ‘em: David Johnson, RB HOU

It’s tough to trust Johnson after the end of last season. While also injured throughout, Johnson looked like he aged 20 years from week six to week nine. After a shocking trade to Houston this off-season, Johnson finds himself once again as the lead back in a projected top offense. Thursday night’s showdown against Kansas City looks to be the highest-scoring game in week one with a projected over/under of 56.5.

In 2019, the Chiefs were excellent in most phases of football, clearly, as they went on to win the Super Bowl. One area fantasy managers took advantage of, however, was their weakness to opposing running backs. Last season, Kansas City allowed the sixth-most points to opposing running backs, including 100 receptions (third-most in the NFL). Johnson is a running back who can capitalize on receptions out of the backfield. Many forget that from weeks one through six last season, he ranked as the PPR RB9 in points per game. If he can return to form, Johnson is a must-start for the season opener.

Sit ‘em: D’Andre Swift, RB DET

There is too much unknown surrounding Swift to start him in week one. While he may have been a top-five dynasty rookie pick this off-season, there’s no guarantee he starts week one with a 15+ touches share of the backfield. Swift has been battling injury for much of training camp, and the newly-signed Adrian Peterson muddies this backfield even more. I would recommend avoiding this backfield all together in a tough week one matchup against Chicago. Swift may be a league-winner down the stretch, but make sure you get there by sitting the star rookie until we get some clarity on this situation.

If you’re desperate: Marlon Mack, RB IND

It won’t be long before Jonathan Taylor takes over the Colts’ backfield for good, but for now, Mack still projects to be a solid contributor to both his team and your fantasy team. The play this week is mostly about the matchup and the projected opportunity share. The Colts travel to face the dysfunctional Jaguars with an implied team total of 26.25, the sixth-highest of the week. As 7.5 point favorites, the Colts should have plenty of positive game script to feed Mack 15+ carries while also getting Taylor a good workload. Taylor is ranked higher because of his big-play ability, but both rank as top 30 options against a Jaguars team that ranked second-worst against fantasy running backs last year and somehow got worse over the off-season.

Wide Receiver

Start ‘em: JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR PIT

2019 was a season to forget for Smith-Schuster. Coming off a massive 1,400+ yard sophomore campaign and the departure of Antonio Brown, expectations were sky-high for the 23-year-old. JuJu actually got off to a solid start, posting a 6-78 receiving line against the New England Patriots, the best defense against opposing wideouts in 2019. After Ben Roethlisberger got injured, it all went downhill.

A healthy Big Ben will do wonders for JuJu this season. While it remains to be seen just how healthy Roethlisberger is, this week one matchup against the Giants should be telling. The Steelers travel to NY and are a six-point favorite with an implied team total of 26.75, the fifth-highest of the week. In a soft matchup, JuJu should capitalize against the defense that ranked fifth-worst against opposing wide receivers last season. In week one, he is a high-floor, high-ceiling play worthy of low-end WR1 status. It would not be shocking if he’s a top-five scorer on the day. Start him again to begin the 2020 season with confidence.

Sit ‘em: DeVante Parker, WR MIA

It finally happened; he broke out. Yes, 2019 had some crazy stories, but arguably no late-round player was more impactful down the stretch of the fantasy season than Parker. From weeks 7-16, he ranked as the WR6 in PPR formats. 2020 is a new year and a new season, and while Parker’s breakout has earned him a starting spot in your lineup in most weeks, he’s a risky play in week one. Heading into Foxboro to face the New England Patriots, the Dolphins have an implied team total of just 18.25, the second-lowest of the week. New England’s defense against opposing wide receivers last season was the best in the league. Parker himself is coming off an injury throughout training camp and may be limited in the opener. For a number of confounding reasons, Parker is best left on your bench for other options this week.

If you’re desperate: Anthony Miller, WR CHI

This Bears offense might be one to just stay away from entirely outside of star wide receiver Allen Robinson. However, if there’s a secondary playmaker at receiver on this team, it’s Miller. He enters his third season largely as a disappointment to date, but the former second-round pick has shown flashes when healthy. After an unsustainable seven touchdowns on 54 targets as a rookie, Miller’s luck swung the other direction in 2019 with just two touchdowns on 85 targets. As the secondary option in the passing game, Miller should command plenty of targets against a Detroit Lions team that ranked second-worst to opposing wide receivers in 2019. While Robinson gets covered by ball-hawking CB Desmond Trufant, look for Miller to capitalize elsewhere in line for a solid outing. He’s a high-floor play in week one as a WR4.

Tight End

Start ‘em: Tyler Higbee, TE LAR

To end 2019, Higbee had perhaps the best stretch of five games in tight end history. He eclipsed seven receptions and 80 yards in every game during his historic run. While we certainly shouldn’t expect this kind of output heading into 2020, Higbee is set up for success once again. With the departure of teammate Brandin Cooks and Todd Gurley, the Rams offense will lean on their more established playmakers: Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and Higbee.

Everyone who played fantasy football last year knows the gift of a matchup the Arizona Cardinals were for opposing tight ends. Perhaps surprisingly, the Cowboys were the third-worst team against the position, allowing the most receptions in the league. In a great matchup, start Higbee with confidence entering week one in one of the highest over/under (50.5) games of the week.

Sit ‘em: Chris Herndon, TE NYJ

Herndon was an enigma in 2019. After being suspended to start the season, he got hurt and wound up playing just 18 snaps on the whole season. While a trendy sleeper pick at the tight end position this season due to his athleticism and efficiency as a rookie, Herndon is best left on your bench this week. The Jets have the lowest implied team total on the week at just 16.5 as they face Buffalo’s stout defense. Jamison Crowder and Le’Veon Bell are the only startable fantasy players for the Jets this week, and even those two rank lower than usual. At this point in the season, you can certainly do better than Herndon. Keep an eye out on the waiver wire though, I expect Herndon to make the “If you’re desperate” section for TEs on more than one occasion.

If you’re desperate: Dallas Goedert, TE PHI

For his whole career, Goedert has been behind one of the best tight ends in the game: Zach Ertz. This has not stopped him from producing fantasy-relevant numbers, which is a true feat considering the general lack of depth at tight end from year to year. Goedert would be the clear number one tight end on a lot of teams in this league. In week one, he will likely act as the number two or three option in this Eagles passing game. Yes, he will technically be behind Ertz on the depth chart, but the Eagles are lacking any serious playmakers outside. First-round pick Jalen Reagor is hurt and likely to miss week one, and Alshon Jeffery is still not cleared to play. The Eagles are big favorites with an implied team total of 24.25 against Washington. Goedert is a high-upside play as the 13th-ranked TE on the week.

That concludes this week’s rankings article! As this series is released before Thursday’s game, be sure to follow any lingering injuries and changing injury status updates for players as Sunday approaches. If you’re wondering about a player I didn’t dive into detail about, feel free to reach out to me @FFzinger on Twitter. Best of luck this week, and I’ll be back next week to give week two’s positional rankings.

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Michael Zingone

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