Anatomy of a Late-Round Wide Receiver Breakout

AJ Fernandez Posted On September 9, 2020

Everyone loves a deep sleeper, but the facts are they don’t wake up very often. We know that draft capital is one of the most important factors in identifying talents that go on to have NFL success both in real life and for our fantasy teams.

However, occasionally there are players who come out of nowhere to secure a seat at the table. Finding overlooked wide receivers who can contribute to a dynasty roster is huge for team-building as they can give league-winning production or serve as trade bait to fill other holes in a roster.

In order to lay the foundation for what a late-round breakout looks like, I went back and tallied all of the top-24 PPR fantasy wide receivers since 2017. After removing Julian Edelman (a college quarterback), there were 40 unique players and an overwhelming 33 (82%) of them were drafted in the top three rounds of the NFL draft. Of the remaining seven, three were fifth-round picks, one a sixth and three undrafted free agents.

As expected, 36 of the 40 receivers had a breakout age of 20 years old or younger and 36 of the 40 achieved a 30% receiving market share (MS) at some point in their college career. Only one of the 40 players had neither a young breakout age nor a 30% MS season, and that is Tyreek Hill whose story is very unique. Hill is a unicorn in many ways.

One thing I have always been curious about is how punt return skills can be parlayed into NFL success. Logically, it makes sense that players who possess return ability may earn roster spots over those who don’t. Once on a roster, anything can happen as these players are buying opportunities every time they enter a game. Additionally, being a punt returner probably means that player is one of the most dynamic talents on his own team and has exceptional concentration and athletic ability.

The 40 receivers in this sample had a lot of punt return experience in college. Twenty four (60%) receivers in group returned at least ten punts as a prospect. Interestingly, first-round picks returned the fewest amount of punts and later picks were more prolific in the return game.

Round selected	Number of Players Who Returned >10 Punts	N Total	%
1	5	13	38
2	6	11	55
3	6	9	67
4+	7	7	100

The sample of only seven late-round picks and undrafted free agents is small, but the trend is very clear. After the elite draft picks, the majority of fantasy-relevant receivers had experience returning punts in college. I also looked at average total punt return production and found the following:

Round Selected	Average Career Punt Returns	Average Career Return Yards
1	9	84
2	20	375
3	38	468
4+	46	383

Again, the trend towards punt return ability shows up with later picks. So, now comes the fun part. How should we apply this to the 2020 wide receiver class? First, for the sake of this article, we will look only at receivers picked in the fourth round or later who have punt-return experience.

Player	Round Selected
Joe Reed	5
KJ Osborn	5
Donovan Peoples-Jones	6
Quez Watkins	6
James Proche	6
Freddie Swain	6
KJ Hill	7
Kalija Lipscomb	UDFA
Marquez Callaway	UDFA
Mason Kinsey	UDFA
Aaron Parker	UDFA

Of this group, only six had an age-adjusted breakout season based on MS. Using the DLF Market Share app, the age-adjusted production for FBS prospects is shown below:

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Prospects from the FCS and lower levels do not have data in our system but have no fear, I looked it up! Aaron Parker’s breakout season was as an 18-year-old and his highest MS was 30% at Rhode Island. Mason Kinsey broke out for Division III Berry College as a 19-year-old and his highest MS was 43%.

Looking at this chart, James Proche is very intriguing as he did just barely qualify for a 19-year-old breakout and also had the highest single-season MS of the group. He was selected by Baltimore who have limited options after Marquise Brown. Quez Watkins also has a very strong profile achieving two seasons of a 30% MS and is on a receiver-needy team in Philadelphia. Proche made Baltimore’s roster, while Watkins made Philadelphia’s but was placed on Injured Reserve (he can return).

Of the UDFAs, Kalija Lipscomb and Marquez Callaway are intriguing. They both signed a contract with almost $100,000 guaranteed, which is on par with a late-round draft pick. Additionally, they are on good offenses. Lipscomb, who came very close to the 30% MS threshold, found a home with the Chiefs (he is on the practice squad) so any future there is exciting. Callaway landed with the Saints who really don’t have a locked-in third receiver. Callaway is probably the best punt returner of the whole group, and if he gets a shot that will be why according to the Saints beat. In fact, he made the Saints 53-man roster. The climb is steep for any undrafted rookie but these two have a chance to hang around and I would keep an eye on both.

Finally, Aaron Parker signed with the Cowboys who appear absolutely loaded at receiver but in very deep formats, he’s a reasonable flyer on a good offense. Mason Kinsey is a player I have just recently learned about who absolutely demolished D-III competition and was invited to the Shrine Bowl. He is the first player from Berry to ever sign any NFL contract, and he got $5,000 guaranteed from the Titans. As it stands right now, he has not been cut and was returning some punts in camp. I hope both of these guys can stick on the practice squad and get a chance to become the next Adam Thielen or Doug Baldwin.

(Update: Kinsey has joined the Patriots’ practice squad and Parker the Cowboys’ practice squad.)