Dynasty Rookies: A Value Check
This has been an incredibly odd off-season in dynasty leagues. The lack of preseason games has severely limited our ability to evaluate the rookies in a way we typically would. With that, we’ve been forced to comb through newspapers, social media, team sites and every other outlet we can to cut through the off-season “puff pieces” and figure out just which rookies are really rising and falling.
With some teams, actions have spoken louder than words as depth charts have been re-worked to either benefit their rising stars or to show they have little faith in their early season success. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the rookies who have risen or fallen the most since the NFL Draft back in April. Make sure you keep up-to-date with our rookie rankings and ADP as well.
Bryan Edwards, WR LV
By all accounts, Edwards has been great in Raiders camp. With the perceived depth in this class, he was an afterthought in some early drafts, falling as far as the third round. That looks to be a mistake at this point as he’s poised to be a starting X receiver from day one with Tyrell Williams now injured. In fact, Edwards has received more camp buzz than any other Raiders player. There has even been talk about Las Vegas wanting to feature Edwards and trying to keep quiet just how good they think he is.
The wide receiver tiers have solidified in the past couple of months. Tier one clearly consists of CeeDee Lamb, and Jerry Jeudy. Tier two includes Justin Jefferson and Jalen Reagor. The third tier is where it gets interesting. Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, and fellow Raider Henry Ruggs seem to have their spots solidified, but Laviska Shenault and Edwards are making their case to join them. If you nabbed Edwards early on, you look like you may have a steal on your hands.
Antonio Gibson, RB WAS
In my fourteen years at DLF, I can’t remember a player having this much fall his way in the preseason. When you consider there weren’t even games to play where injuries occur, it’s really pretty amazing. Still, Gibson is the fast riser this off-season. He was a late second or early third round pick early on, then lightning hit…twice. First, Derrius Guice was cut and jettisoned out of the league, giving Gibson a real chance at some meaningful early career playing time. After Adrian Peterson was cut last week, all bets are off.
Washington is said to be in love with Gibson’s ability and while it’s dangerous to put too much stock into things this early, their actions just can’t be ignored. Gibson is going to compete with Bryce Love, Peyton Barber and JD McKissic for touches, but there’s no doubt he has the most immediate upside and looks like the rookie draft darling of 2020.
If you somehow haven’t had your dynasty rookie draft, you’re going to need a top ten pick to secure his services. If you want proof, check out what Ryan McDowell found out on twitter this week.
Let’s nail down this Antonio Gibson rookie draft value…
Pick one for PPR dynasty…
— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) September 4, 2020
PPR dynasty
— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) September 4, 2020
Zack Moss, RB BUF
Another rising running back is certainly Zack Moss. As Devin Singletary continues to have ball security issues, Moss has flourished in Bills camp. At this point, it looks like Buffalo is going to roll with a running back by committee at the very least. Most beat writers for the Bills are even predicting Moss takes over as the lead back sooner, rather than later. Moss has clearly risen into the top 20 overall rookies and finds himself right with Antonio Gibson as running back gems from early rookie drafts. While not up there in the tiers with the premier running backs, Moss looks like a solid second round rookie pick at the moment.
James Robinson, RB JAC
If you’re looking for a late round sleeper rookie running back, Robinson could be your guy. I’m a little bias because I’ve been tooting his horn for a while. However, the Jaguars have cut Leonard Fournette and passed on Devonta Freeman since I wrote that article and some of that has to do with how they feel Robinson has progressed. Expectations should be tempered with Robinson as the Jaguars have Devine Ozigbo, Chris Thompson and Ryquell Armstead on the roster. Still, one of these backs is going to emerge and I still like Robinson’s chances. While I wouldn’t spend a lot to get him at the moment, he makes for a great addition to a deep dynasty roster.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn, RB TB
There is no rookie falling further than Ke’Shawn Vaughn. A poor training camp, combined with the free agent signing of Leonard Fournette has sent Vaughn’s rookie stock all the way down from the late first or early second to the third round of rookie drafts. Ronald Jones was already outplaying him camp and he looks to be no better than fourth on the depth chart behind Fournette, Jones and even veteran LeSean McCoy. Vaughn could even be a game day inactive. While early drafters have to hold on and hope for the best moving forward, things have simply not gone to plan.
Gabriel Davis, WR BUF
The Buffalo passing game hasn’t exactly been a haven for fantasy production the past few years, but Davis is clearly making some noise. There are a lot of mouths to feed with the likes of Stefon Diggs, John Brown, and Cole Beasley. However, Davis looks to have done enough to get some early playing time and could be one of the better late round picks in early dynasty rookie drafts.
John Hightower, WR PHI
The Eagles depth chart at receiver is a hot mess. While Jalen Reagor is the rookie receiver to own for the Eagles, Hightower has been a standout as well. With speed to burn and a game that has looked a lot more refined than people thought it would, Hightower has not only made the team, but also looks to get early playing time as the Eagles receivers continue to nurse various injuries. If he shows well, it could be hard to get him off the field – perfect for a late round lottery ticket.
Van Jefferson, WR LAR
Reports are surfacing all over the place indicating Jefferson has overtaken Josh Reynolds as the third receiver for the Rams. If this comes to fruition, this is a big piece of information. With Cooper Kupp entering a contract year and likely commanding a significant raise at the end of the season, Jefferson could be in prime position to get his feet wet this year, then really come on in 2021. His route running has been praised all off-season and he looks the part thus far.
Antonio Gandy-Golden, WR WAS
AGG had a great shot at early value in Washington, but he’s really struggled with the playbook. While he’s still slated to start along with Terry McLaurin and Steven Sims, things haven’t gone as planned thus far and he could lose that job to Dontrelle Inman. The opportunity is there, but it’s hard to say just what kind of production we’re going to see from him early on. Owners who drafted him needing immediate production may find themselves disappointed.
Tyler Johnson, WR TB
A soft tissue injury set Johnson back in camp and had him miss significant time. Meanwhile, the likes of Scotty Miller and Justin Watson took advantage and leaped him on the depth chart. With Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Rob Gronkowski destined to get the lion’s share of the targets and the other two ahead of him in the pecking order, Johnson has a long way to go for dynasty relevance.
Joshua Kelley, RB LAC
Kelley was a bit of an afterthought in early rookie drafts, routinely being taken behind the likes of Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Zack Moss, AJ Dillon, Darrynton Evans, Anthony McFarland, Lynn Bowden and even Lamical Perine. With a very solid camp under his belt, Kelley has put himself squarely in the mix for early season carries behind Austin Ekeler. With 200 carries vacated by the departed Melvin Gordon, Kelley and Justin Jackson are going to battle it out for time. At this point, Kelley looks like the leader in the clubhouse and an early rookie draft bargain.
Rico Dowdle, RB DAL
If you want a super deep sleeper this year, Dowdle could be your man. While he won’t see the field unless an injury occurs to Ezekiel Elliott and/or Tony Pollard, the Cowboys only kept three running backs on their active roster and are said to be very impressed with Dowdle. He’s played and performed well against elite SEC competition. If you need other visual proof, check this out from NextGenStats:
One thing is now a certainty – we won’t have to wait long to see just what teams have in store for these rookies. It’s almost go time!
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
- 2024 Rookie Bust Mock Draft (Pre-Draft Edition): Round Two - April 21, 2024
- Dynasty Running Back Danger Rankings: 16-9 - April 21, 2024
- 2024 Rookie Bust Mock Draft (Pre-Draft Edition): Round One - April 18, 2024
