Twitter Observations: Fournette Out, Jefferson In
By this time next week, we’ll have actual games to process which means our dynasty leagues will officially be underway for 2020. All those drafts and trades that happened during this very uncertain off-season will be validated, for better or worse. It’s a good feeling!
But first, we had a few tweets to process including a shocker in Florida. That and more in this week’s edition.
Fournette Me Not
Former Jaguars’ RB Leonard Fournette is signing with the Buccaneers, per source.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 3, 2020
It was a whirlwind week for Leonard Fournette dynasty owners. From the initial shock of Fournette being released by the Jaguars to the giddiness of being added to the revamped Tampa Bay offense, it was a lot to take in just one week before the season. But now that Fournette has settled in, we can start evaluating his dynasty prospects.
Statistically, Fournette has been average over the course of his three-year career. Sure, he’s had two 1,000-yard seasons but also has just a 4.0 yards-per-carry average. And yes, he added a career-high 76 receptions last year but managed to total just 522 yards from it. In both statistical cases, Fournette benefitted from the volume of his offense rather than his talent or efficiency.
Dynasty Impact: Fournette’s dynasty value was already trending in the wrong direction after the Jaguars failed to pick up his fifth-year option, but this will push it down even further.
Not only is he virtually guaranteed to see fewer touches in Tampa – there are too many mouths to feed – but he’s apparently not even the starter yet. Fournette dynasty owners are stuck as there is little chance of anyone offering anything of value for Fournette. It’s possible he contributes to the offense this year and even sees most of the touches in the backfield, but it won’t come close to what he was seeing as an RB1 in Jacksonville.
M-V-S! M-V-S!
Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Rashan Gary playing so well against the 1s in 11-on-11 work is so encouraging. MVS is so important to the passing game. Gary could take the pass-rush to a new level.
— Zach Kruse (@zachkruse2) August 30, 2020
Ever since the Packers failed to select a single receiver in the 2020 NFL Draft, the biggest question for Green Bay’s offense was which receiver would stand to benefit the most. Granted, it’s not a glamorous position to be in. Aaron Jones – a running back – was second on the team in targets in 2019 while Jimmy Graham – a tight end – was third. Marquez Valdes-Scantling was fourth on the team (and second-highest receiver) with a whopping 56. What’s sadder is that total was lower than his rookie-year total of 73. Nonetheless, Valdes-Scantling is still around and seemingly poised for a breakout.
Dynasty Impact: 2020 could be considered a make-or-break year for Valdes-Scantling. He’s entering his third year and best chance to be fantasy relevant. Geronimo Allison – he of the 55 Green Bay targets last year – and Graham (60 targets) are both gone to division rivals. By all accounts, no Packer tight end is ready to take the mantle which leaves a lot of the targets left between Allison and Graham available.
If MVS can siphon off a third to half of those, we’re talking about 100 targets on the season. And with his career 16.1 yards-per-reception average, he could do some damage. Target him as a throw-in or offer a low-rookie pick.
One Small Step for Van…
Van Jefferson leaps Josh Reynolds as Rams' WR3? https://t.co/Wm7N9iW83u
— Rotoworld Football (@rotoworld_fb) September 2, 2020
With rookie drafts in the rearview mirror, it’s now time to start playing stock options with said rookies. Some are seeing their dynasty value freefall (hello, Ke’Shawn Vaughn) while others are starting to move quickly up rookie rankings. Van Jefferson is squarely in the latter as he appears to have fought his way on the field to start the season for the Rams.
Granted, all he had to do was beat out fourth year (and entirely uninspiring) receiver Josh Reynolds. But still, the Rams offense has been explosive before and have all the parts to do it again. Reynolds is one of the unknown commodities who could break out.
Dynasty Impact: Consider yourself lucky, or a genius, if you were lucky enough to snag Van Jefferson in the third round of rookie drafts. According to the DLF Rookie Pick App, a lot of you did.
If Jefferson permanently supplants Reynolds, he can easily take Reynolds’ 43 targets from last year. Let’s also not forget that the Rams traded away Brandin Cooks who accounted for 72 targets last year. Jefferson is still being valued lower than most other rookie receivers and is just 70th in our DLF rankings. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to offer a second-round rookie pick for next year, or something comparable, to get Jefferson before he explodes.
I’m Not Sorry, Mr. Jackson
Lamar Jackson averaged 28.1 FPG in 2019 – the most by any QB in any season ever
He out-scored the QB12 (Kyler Murray) by +9.5 FPG
For perspective, that's the same difference between the WR3 (Julio Jones) and the WR51 (Randall Cobb)
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) September 2, 2020
For starters, this portion of the article is not debating whether Lamar Jackson is good. He’s very good. Very, very, very good. Not only did he blow the competition away last year, as indicated in the tweet above, but he earned MVP honors in just his second year in the league. And Jackson is the author of one of my favorite stats of all-time – Baltimore had the least amount of pass attempts last season but had the most passing touchdowns. It was a bonkers year and Jackson deserves all the credit. But there is a question of how valuable Jackson in a dynasty format is.
Dynasty Impact: The debate over how to value quarterbacks in 1QB dynasty leagues has existed as long as dynasty leagues have existed. Yes, the position is the most important on a real-life NFL team but on your fantasy team, in a league with no more than 12-14 teams, doesn’t everyone have a decent quarterback? But as the tweet shows above, Jackson was on another level.
With that talent and youth, Jackson is worth more than most. Even in dynasty startups as our DLF ADP tool indicates, Jackson is going off in the second round. That feels right when you consider taking Jackson means you won’t have to worry about the quarterback position for a decade.
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