August Dynasty Mock Draft Diary
To formulate DLF’s Average Draft Position (ADP) data, we conduct numerous mock drafts each month, providing us the necessary data to help the dynasty industry evaluate player values. This also gives me personally, the opportunity to get a feel for the current trends in startup drafts, by letting me know who is falling or rising from the month before along with which players are being over or undervalued.
Mock drafts are a blessing because it allows you to practice constructing rosters in different ways without having to put money on the line. By knowing whether to draft zero-RB, Robust-RB, or something in-between will allow you to work the draft board much more efficiently than just drafting blind with rankings and ADP as a guide.
The mock draft I’m referencing in this article is from one of August’s mock drafts. Here I provide analysis of what I was thinking and why I like the players I chose. There are also some draft picks that I wish I never made.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB DAL – 1.04
Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, and Michael Thomas were the first three picks in the draft. Elliott seemed like a slam dunk here due to his consistent workload and production. He has four straight RB1 seasons and scoring over 300 fantasy points in three of the last four seasons.
My plan here is to look really hard at running back in the first couple of rounds, then pound wide receivers until it makes me nervous. I used my first-round pick on a stud running back, and the goal from here is to add as many young prominent players as possible. I don’t have a preference right now, on how I want my roster to look. I’m just feeling the draft and taking the best value available with each pick.
D’Andre Swift, RB DET – 2.09
The Detroit Lions drafted Swift in the early second round of this year’s draft. He was the consensus 1.01 in devy drafts for a very long time before we peeled the layers back and over evaluated this year’s rookie class.
During his final year at Georgia, he averaged 3.55 yards after contact per attempt and 29.4 percent of his touches went for either a touchdown or first down. He finished his career with back to back 1,000-yard seasons and posted 13 total touchdowns during his sophomore year.
https://twitter.com/CFBLive247/status/1059505792322334722?s=20
Swift will add a lot of electricity to the Lions’ offense. He packs a lot of burst along with homerun hitting speed. Matthew Stafford will be looking his way when it comes times to check it down to the flat because he’s a reliable receiver who will churn out yards when given open space.
I was happy to get one of the top running backs from this year’s draft. It’s a gamble because it’s a high price tag to pay for a rookie who has yet to prove himself. I’m still betting on the talent and his value should be age insulated.
Kenny Golladay, WR DET – 3.04
Golladay posted six WR1 weeks last season while playing most of the year without Matthew Stafford. He ranked 11th in the league with 14.6 air yards per target while also finishing 13th with 2.03 yards per route run. Baby-Tron is the perfect nickname for him since he can win the deep passes and has the catch radius to be a dangerous red-zone option.
Stafford would have easily led the league in deep pass attempts considering he was on pace to be the only quarterback to hit triple digits in this category with a pro-rated 112 attempts before a back injury cut his season short.
I like getting Golladay in this spot. He’s a WR1 who has the potential to produce top five results. The Lions’ offense is only going to feed his fantasy production, making him a stable long-term asset in dynasty. Since I doubled up at running back in the first two rounds, it was quite apparent that I needed to get a top-end receiver to round out my roster. Golladay is a sneaky WR1 who can deliver results for a very long time.
Calvin Ridley, WR ATL – 4.09
I literally drafted Ridley right after Julio Jones here. I also selected him before Todd Gurley, Justin Jefferson, Terry McLaurin, and Tyler Lockett. This is the part of the draft where the running back talent is starting to dissipate and the wide receiver pool is stacked with young talent.
The fact that he’s playing in Atlanta’s high-powered offense makes him a very tantalizing dynasty asset. He has a good rapport with Matt Ryan where he was able to produce a 115.9 quarterback rating when targeted. Jones stretches the field and allows Ridley to easily work underneath which helped him finish as a WR2 or better in seven of his 13 games last season.
Jalen Reagor, WR PHI – 5.04
(Editor’s note: This pick was made before Reagor’s training camp shoulder injury.)
Reagor was easily one of my favorite wide receivers during the draft process this year. He’s in line to become one of the main contributors to the passing offense this year. Reports are looking good from camp and there’s a good chance we see a year-one breakout from Reagor.
This is a bit of a gamble considering he’s an unproven rookie who has yet to prove himself. Especially, when I selected him over Robert Woods, Stefon Diggs, Dak Prescott, and Kyler Murray. Reagor’s dynasty value is age-insulated which means even if he has a bad rookie season, we shouldn’t see a major drop in his value. However, if he explodes, then his dynasty value will go through the roof and will flirt with WR1 status.
Michael Gallup, WR DAL – 6.09
Ever since the Cowboys drafted CeeDee Lamb, Gallup’s value has been in a limbo state. It’s hard for dynasty owners to completely buy-in when Lamb and Amari Cooper are there to try to steal the show. No matter what Gallup is going to have a role in this offense and he has more than enough potential to be a high-end WR2 in fantasy.
David Johnson, Tee Higgins, Melvin Gordon, and Mecole Hardman were still on the board when I selected. If I had to do this pick again, I might have thought long and hard about drafting Higgins here, but Gallup is a very good player. He finished eighth in the league with 2.16 yards per route run and that was after leading the league with 13 drops.
Courtesy of DLF’s ADP Over Time App.
Gallup is a young wide receiver prospect in a good offense. He should hold his value throughout the season. If he continues to get targets, then we should easily see a scalable bump in his ADP by the end of the year. I also want to think I’m buying him at the dip and not at his full potential. He was pushing at being a top-20 at his position just a few months ago. Lamb cooled off his steam, allowing him to be a value startup drafts.
Christian Kirk, WR ARI – 7.04
Kirk is one of my favorite players in all of fantasy. He plays in a fast-paced offense and is a key contributor in the slot for the Arizona Cardinals. He only had two games last year where he saw under 20 percent of the targets. The opportunity is there for him to succeed and all he has to do is stay healthy and continue to develop his skill set.
Courtesy of DLF’s ADP Over Time App.
I feel that drafting him at 76th overall is a good value considering he was being drafted in the top 50 just nine months ago. DeAndre Hopkins could cannibalize some of his target share, but there’s also a good chance Hopkins helps him get open underneath as the team’s second option in the passing offense.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR SF – 8.09
It’s the ninth round and I’m drafting another young wide receiver. The 49ers selected Aiyuk in the first round of this year’s draft. For a player of his draft capital, a ninth-round price tag is more than palatable. He ranked sixth among all collegiate wide receivers last year with 710 yards after the catch. He also produced 378 yards after first contact. Aiyuk is very assertive running routes and with the ball in his hands.
The players drafted directly behind him in this mock draft were Tarik Cohen, Mark Ingram, Alexander Mattison, and AJ Green. Aiyuk is different from those players because he’s much younger and will hold his value throughout the season, making him a safe investment.
Sony Michel, RB NE – 9.04
I’m not going to lie; I really want this pick back. Even though this is good value for Michel and he adds some bench strength to my running back corps, I would much rather have Bryan Edwards with this pick who was still on the board. I’m sure Edwards wouldn’t fall to this point in most drafts today because he has seen some recent success in training camp.
Another reason I don’t like this pick is that Michel is a falling knife. His dynasty value is at the risk of bottoming out if he has a bad 2020 season. There’s also a good chance that Cam Newton opens up New England’s’ offense and Michel sees more meaningful carries than ever before, but I’m not willing to bet on him when there’s still young talented wide receivers on the board.
James Washington, WR PIT – 10.09
Yes, I’m still drafting wide receivers. The running backs who were still on the board at this point of the draft was Jordan Howard, James White, Kerryon Johnson, and Tony Pollard. Washington is an upside play who could provide a spark at the end of the bench.
Washington finished the 2019 season seeing 100 air yards or more in four of his last six games. He is the team’s deep threat and those deep targets could potentially fuel fantasy points. This is a risky pick because the Steelers added Chase Claypool in this year’s draft and Washington will also compete with JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson for targets. The upside is vastly huge. He’s a former Biletnikoff winner who is regularly seeing deep targets.
PICKS 11-15
Robby Anderson, WR CAR – 11.04
Parris Campbell, WR IND – 12.09
Chase Edmonds, RB ARI – 13.04
Cam Newton, QB NE – 14.09
Blake Jarwin, TE DAL – 15.04
I drafted two wide receivers, one running back, one quarterback, and one tight end with my next five picks. This is the area of the draft where I start pivoting to other positions. The selections of Anderson and Campbell will round out the backend of my wide receivers corps. I’m happy to have Campbell as my WR9 and I feel he has enough potential to develop into one of the more coveted assets on my team.
Due to his role in the offense, Edmonds has stand-alone value, but if anything happens to Kenyan Drake, then it’s wheels up for Edmonds. I think he has the potential to be a league-winner if he receives a long period of time as the team’s starting running back. If he does hit his ceiling, I don’t think it would last for several years, and therefore I will be looking to sell for more if he does start to produce weekly RB1 numbers.
Newton could bring league-winning upside. He looks healthy and ready to go. As the 165th pick in the draft, I consider Newton a steal for this dynasty team. He coincidentally gets stacked with Michel who could provide a solid correlation play if both players can remain healthy throughout the 2020 season.
Jarwin is the ultimate under-the-radar upside tight end. He will be filling Jason Witten’s dad-running void in the offense. All he needs is a slight uptick in targets and some additional red zone opportunities to be fantasy-relevant this year.
PICKS 16-20
Dare Ogunbowale, RB TB – 16.09
DeAndre Washington, RB KC – 17.04
Hunter Renfrow, WR LV – 18.09
Adrian Peterson, RB WAS – 19.04
Dawson Knox, TE BUF – 20.09
This is the section of the draft where I took dart throws on pass-catching running backs. Both Ogunbowale and Washington fit that bill. Ogunbowale could be Tampa Bay’s receiving back this season. Washington has stand-alone value since he plays on the most explosive offense in the league and his stock will drastically increase if Clyde Edwards-Helaire struggles or goes down with an injury.
I drafted Renfrow as my WR10. I know I don’t need another wide receiver, but it was hard it ignore the value. He’s a highly efficient player who will always hold it down in the slot for the Raiders. As a rookie, he finished the 2019 season 11th among wide receivers with 2.09 yards per route run.
I was camping when the news about Derrius Guice broke out, and at that point I decided to draft Peterson as a short-term play who will provide some production for my team during the early stages while I build my dynasty.
I needed a backup tight end, and Knox was one of the last available options. He’s a young player who showed some promise last year. Tight end is a position I can easily build up through trades in the near future. Knox’s upside might be limited, but he’s a tremendous value as the 237th pick in the draft.
THE VERDICT
Courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com.
I’ve drafted thousands of dynasty rosters throughout my dynasty career. I like to play around with my builds to determine the best way to attack the current player pool. Going wide receiver-heavy and mainly drafting zero-RB is my favorite approach. However, with the wide receiver position being bottomless with talent along with the player pool being top-heavy at running back, it makes a lot of sense to at lease grab some if not stockpile some running backs during the early stages of the draft.
Obviously, I like the talent my team has at wide receiver. I have a lot of depth here where I can use to fill my flex spots or use as chips to fill other positions in the future. I’m not just drafting players; I’m drafting assets that I’m hoping will gain value so I can sell them for a profit down the road.
Having just Newton as my quarterback is very risky. I would like to have at least two quarterbacks for most of my teams. Depending on roster size, I usually, I’ll try to have a third quarterback as a developmental option.
Most dynasty players get nervous whenever their roster is shallow at running back. I embrace it. I’ve drafted zero-RB enough over the years, that I’m molded by it. I’m also very confident in my abilities to scout rookies and draft the right running backs in rookie drafts.
When it comes to tight end, I’m either going to fade the position and toss out some dart throws later in the draft or I’m going to pony-up and buy one of the top options in the early rounds. Of course, value plays a role here. I’m definitely drafting a tight end if he falls past ADP and is the best player available, but as a full-fledged strategy, I like to either go all-in or completely fade the position.
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