Hold On for One More Day: Baker Mayfield in Superflex Leagues
It was Carnie Wilson, Wendy Wilson, and Chyna Phillips who famously sang:
Some day somebody’s gonna make you
Want to turn around and say goodbye
Until then, baby, are you going to let them
Hold you down and make you cry?
Don’t you know?
Don’t you know things can change
Things’ll go your way
If you hold on for one more day
Can you hold on for one more day
Things’ll go your way
Hold on for one more day
The younger generation may be unaware of the 1990 hit “Hold On” by Wilson Phillips, but it’s a banger. No matter the challenges in my personal and/or professional life, hearing those three young women’s angelic voices and the climactic drum solo automatically improves my mood by 1000%. The message of the song is simple; no matter the obstacles we experience in life, we must look inward and live life one day at a time to overcome them.
This message not only resonates in the current state of global affairs but in the dynasty football landscape as well. Each dynasty degenerate has a story of a player who they paid a hefty price to acquire only for said player to lay an egg the following season. While some folks get so enraged, they will sell this dynasty asset simply out of spite, the smart dynasty player holds on until he can get appropriate value in return. This series will highlight those post-hype players who need to stay parked on your dynasty roster.
No player represents failed expectations in 2019 more than Baker Mayfield. The former Sooner and his Browns’ teammates went from preseason Super Bowl darlings to the all too familiar pits of despair at season’s end. Despite this, now is NOT the time to sell Mayfield for pennies on the dollar.
“You Got Yourself into Your Own Mess”
If you take nothing else away from this article let it be this; proceed with caution when buying into the hype of any player. The two above trades were made in 12-team superflex leagues last May and August, respectively. They demonstrate the high freight it took to acquire the Cleveland quarterback last summer. (It’s important to note these are current values of dynasty assets.) Imagine giving up Patrick Mahomes or three top 15 picks in this year’s rookie draft (including the 1.01) for Mayfield in the past three months… you’d be closer to getting booted out of your league for suspected collusion than winning a championship.
Of course, we have the luxury of hindsight bias as Mayfield’s value was off the charts last May. According to the DLF May 2019 ADP, the 2017 Heisman trophy winner was the 12th player off the board and third quarterback in superflex mock drafts. The hype train lost a little bit of steam by July of 2019, but he still cost you a mid-second (2.05) superflex startup pick. At that point, all Mayfield had to do was become the second coming of Brett Favre to return value.
“…Hold You Down and Make You Cry”
Think back to your favorite holiday morning as a child… now imagine instead of getting that special present, you were kicked square in the groin. Those are the emotions both those with dynasty superflex shares of Mayfield (hand raised) and Browns’ fans (heavy sigh) experienced last season.
There were many reasons for the team and starting quarterback’s failures in 2019 (discussed below). However, when the dust settled in January, the Oklahoma alum threw almost as many interceptions (21) as he did touchdowns (22), finished outside of a weekly QB1 in 69% (!) of his starts, and was QB19 on the season.
“Don’t You Know Things can Change”
Us Browns’ fans have a saying to get us through season after season of misery and heartache, “Wait till next year!” Now, the majority of times it is nonsense to help us sleep at night, though there’s true optimism Mayfield can get back to his elite playmaking abilities in 2020.
An Offensive Line Upgrade
Despite a strong 2018 season, the Browns offensive line (specifically the tackles) struggled mightily in 2019. Left tackle Greg Robinson committed a team-high 11 penalties, allowed 26 QB pressures, and had an overall Pro Football Focus grade of 66.9. Chris Hubbard was worse on the right side as he had a team-high 38 quarterback pressures and six sacks, to go along with eight penalties for an overall grade of 50.6.
This porous pass protection led Mayfield to get happy feet, and the confident pocket presence from his rookie season vanished. Thankfully, the team drafted Jedrick Wills out of Alabama to play left tackle while signing one of the best right tackles in the league (Jack Conklin).
A Purge of Terrible Coaching
I’ve seen some sad coaching jobs over the last 20 years, but Freddie Kitchens might have been the worst. He fooled us all with his ‘awe shucks’ demeanor and snappy catchphrases while taking credit for the end of 2018 offensive explosion when he obviously had very little influence. Former offensive coordinator Todd Monken said the team would steer away from the game plan they worked on all week once the game got started at Kitchens’ urging.
While it’s too early to know any specifics on new coach Kevin Stefanski, he seems to possess a trait missing from Kitchens… competence. The last time Mayfield had a competent coach scheming his offense, Ken Zampese from weeks ten-seventeen in 2018, Mayfield was QB9 over that span breaking the rookie QB record for touchdown passes.
“Hold On for One More Day”
What a difference a year makes as, according to DLF July 2020 superflex ADP, Baker Mayfield is being selected 52nd overall and 12th among quarterbacks. Not only the quarterback’s value crater, but the knee-jerk selling of a dynasty GM is highlighted by the two pictured trades completed in the last month.
While the team acquiring Drew Brees and Le’Veon Bell technically “wins” the trade, there’s no chance I’m pulling the trigger on that deal unless those two aging veterans are the missing links for my squad winning a superflex championship this year. Both Brees and Bell have so many question marks after 2020, there are inherent risks on having them rostered on any team that’s not a bonafide contender. Kudos to the squad shipping them off for acquiring a 25-year-old quarterback in a superflex league with Mayfield’s upside for players who could have little to no value come next August.
“If you can’t say something nice, don’t say anything at all,” is the first thought that comes to mind when looking at the side sending away Mayfield and Keenan Allen. Even if we assume this team is rebuilding, they essentially sold a perennial WR1 and a low-end superflex QB1 for a pair of young unproven assets with upside and an oft-injured veteran quarterback. CeeDee Lamb is oozing with high-end WR1 potential, but his current status as the WR3 of his own team could mean two-three years before seeing the returns on that potential. Teddy Bridgewater has played 15 games in the past three seasons combined and holds little to no value for a team looking to rebuild. Parris Campbell is a great buy-low bounceback option for the 2020 season, but this deal is the exact opposite of buying low.
“Things’ll Go Your Way”
A healthy Odell Beckham Jr, Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper, Nick Chubb, and a full season with Kareem Hunt give the Browns one of the best collection of offensive weapons in the entire league. This also means 2020 is a make-or-break year for Baker Mayfield with Cleveland and in dynasty circles. The conservative dynasty player’s first instinct is to trade away the Browns quarterback for superflex scraps in fear of the ultimate downfall. I can say unapologetically that’s a strategy of a team striving for mediocrity. If your go-to move is to panic-sell a player after a rough season, you will be stuck with a squad full of Teddy Bridgewaters.
There’s still a path for the former Sooner to become the top five dynasty quarterback we all had him pegged for last Summer. However, even if he never reaches that ceiling, there’s a good chance his value will rise from the bottomless pit where it currently resides. A few great fantasy weeks this upcoming season will put Mayfield on the positive side of recency bias and allow you to fetch a greater return midseason. Thus, hold onto the Browns’ quarterback until his value comes close to matching the likely high price you paid to acquire his services.
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