Tarik Cohen: A Buy-Now Opportunity

John Hesterman

Let’s face it, we have all been there – drafted a player who not only did not return value but busted in such a memorable way that they become the whipping boy of a derailed season.

That is when the grudge seeps in. That grudge can stick with fantasy managers for a long time.

Consider this article a single-player support group to prevent that grudge from festering and leading to a missed opportunity. Pour a cup of free coffee, pick a seat, prepare to introduce yourselves and talk about how Tarik Cohen hurt you last season.

2018 Production

Cohen finished the 2018 season as the RB11 in PPR formats. In that season, he had 99 rush attempts for 444 yards and three rushing touchdowns. For a primary receiving back, this was bonus points. On 91 targets, he had 71 receptions for 725 receiving yards and five more touchdowns. He averaged 10.2 yards per reception that season, easily the highest of his career. His 14.6 points-per-game average was 15th best among the position. Among fellow running backs, his 90 targets were sixth-best.

The expectations for the Bears offense heading into 2019 was improvement across the board, starting with quarterback Mitchell Trubisky and trickling down to the other positions.

2019 Production

Now, let’s assess how he finished 2019 and what that means for his value for potential managers moving forward.

The diminutive running back finished last season as the RB27 in PPR scoring formats, well below where many analysts had projected him statistically, but closer to his average draft position of that season.

He finished with a career-low in carries (64), rushing yards (213), yards-per-carry average (3.3), and rushing touchdowns, with zero. His two-season average prior to 2019, was 407 rushing yards and 2.5 touchdowns per season, for the sake of context.

As a receiver, the disappointment was perplexing. While he finished with a career-high in targets (104) and receptions (79), it equated to 456 receiving yards which was the second-lowest of his young career. He tacked on three receiving touchdowns.

Normally, one would assume that an increase in volume should equal an increase in production. Unfortunately, the offensive struggles neither began nor ended with Cohen.

Can we lay the lack of production squarely at Cohen’s feet? Not entirely, no. There are a few things to unpack here, so let’s dive in.

Play-calling and offensive tendencies obviously affect opportunities for production. Head coach Matt Nagy struggled in the play-calling aspect in 2019 after showing some spark during the 2018 season.

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As shown in the graph, both RB1 and RB2 production declined in a noticeable way from 2018 through last season. Cohen’s average depth of target dipped from 3.7 in 2018 to 1.8 last season. In 2018 his yards-per-reception average was 10.2 and dipped to 5.8, lower than his rookie season.

Both statistical dips tie into the next observational point; Trubisky. Whatever glimmer Trubisky showed in 2018 as a fantasy asset quickly dissipated last season. Despite seeing pass attempts increase from 434 to 516, he threw for fewer yards, touchdowns, and a lower completion percentage.

To summarize, the decline in Cohen’s production rests on multiple shoulders. Cohen oftentimes appeared like he was not creating his own space and other times it was not scripted well. However, despite the lack of production, one must take into account the amount of opportunity Cohen offers.

2020 Expectations

There is an active quarterback battle in Chicago. Trubisky and veteran Nick Foles are battling for the starting role. The end result for fantasy purposes is the best possible quarterback will be under center and properly leashed. If Trubisky is the day-one starter and falters, causing a couple of losses, Nagy is yanking that leash and releasing Foles and vice versa.

Nagy runs a complicated offense and collects tight ends like they’re Funkos. Alas, that is a completely different article.

The fact is, Nagy wants to see his creative offense take off and that relies on competent quarterback play. The trickle-down effect is linch-pinned on being able to run the ball and short-game effectiveness, whether that is screen passes in space or exploiting the middle of the field from the slot. The Bears finished with the eighth-most targets to running backs (130) in 2018. They followed that up with the fifth-most targets (147) in 2019.

Cost of Acquisition

Buy low and sell high. These rules apply to the stock market as well as dynasty rosters. Ladies and gentlemen, now IS the time to buy.

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His ADP has fallen to its lowest point since his rookie season, making him a relatively low-risk draft pick with serious opportunity baked into a bargain-bin price.

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Cohen sneaks in at RB42 in dynasty rankings. Ronald Jones, Marlon Mack, Raheem Mostert, and Tevin Coleman have combined for 195 targets over the last two seasons. Over the same span, Cohen has 195 targets under his belt. Those players are all going ahead of Cohen per ADP.

Aside from drafting, Cohen remains a value package-piece in trades. Here are a few recent examples from our handy DLF Trade Analyzer.

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Conclusion

To wrap this all up, let’s cover the things we should not expect from Cohen. Do not expect 100+ carries. He has yet to eclipse that number and will fall below 450 rushing yards or more than three rushing touchdowns. The Bears will give David Montgomery every opportunity from a carry-count standpoint as there is something to prove from that draft pick. That minimalist carry count is fine as it does not represent where Cohen’s value is.

What we can expect is the best quarterback on the roster under center. Whichever quarterback starts in week one will be on a short leash and scrutinized from the coaching staff. What will not change is how Montgomery and Cohen are utilized in this offense.

People who are drafting Cohen are drafting a top-five targeted running back in an offense that targets the position in the top-ten range of the NFL. The opportunity, in my opinion, outweighs the lack of production from the previous season. This is not projecting a breakout kind of season from an unproven prospect. Cohen has produced RB11 numbers in this offense on less opportunity than he was given last season.

The drop in cost of acquisition makes him all the more enticing as it removes some risk from the decision. The 10.2 PPR points-per-game represents Cohen’s floor, not his ceiling, making him an every-week flex option with upside on most rosters.

From 2009 to present, Cohen is tied with Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara at sixth among running backs that have had at least 70+ targets in consecutive seasons. Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Le’Veon Bell, Darren Sproles, and James White are the five ahead of that particular group. McCaffrey, Kamara, and Cohen were all drafted in 2017 and have produced above that mark in each of their first three seasons.

If there is a PPR bargain that is slightly buried in the running back rankings, all of five-foot-six Cohen qualifies.

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