The Viability of Stacking Two Wide Receivers from the Same Team
A few weeks ago, I was doing some research on stacking players on the same team in your starting lineups. The community is well aware of the benefits of stacking an elite wide receiver or tight end with his quarterback, or maybe a running back with a quarterback or wide receiver as well. Some teams can support multiple top players weekly and have great fantasy success over an entire season.
Some people might even go as far as owning every top skill player at each position from the Kansas City Chiefs for the foreseeable future, as Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce are perennial fantasy superstars at their position, and the potential of Clyde Edwards-Helaire makes the entire offense an attractive team to own.
Expanded player weekly stack percentages since 2000.
The way you read this is by saying:
"Given that a quarterback had a QB1 week, we would expect that team to also produce a WR1 that week 58.3% of the time." pic.twitter.com/rEaAPjrU39
— Addison Hayes (@amazehayes_) July 29, 2020
From my research on weekly position stacking, as seen in the tweet above, I was most intrigued by all the red on the diagonal of the matrix, that is, the probability of a team finishing with two RB1s in the same week, or two WR1s, or two TE1s, and so on.
To no surprise, it’s extremely rare for a team to have two fantasy RB1 finishes in the same week, as most backfields are either one workhorse or a shared committee approach that limits the ceiling of two or more backs.
Similarly, I was not surprised by the percentage of weeks of two fantasy TE1 weeks from the same team, as most teams do not have a stud fantasy tight end on their roster, let alone two.
Where I was most interested were the percentages of two WR1s, WR2s, etc. on the same team, especially in today’s NFL where the target hog receiver is being faded in favor of two or even three good options at the position. I decided to focus my attention on the wide receiver position, specifically the teams that have two top fantasy options and what the effect of each other’s presence has on the other’s weekly production. After all, fantasy football is a weekly game at its root.
Using August DLF ADP, I pulled the top-30 wide receivers taken off the board and found seven teams that currently have two receivers inside that top-30:
For the sake of this study, I decided to remove the teams that included a rookie receiver, since we do not have data on how those players will produce together. This leaves us with four teams and eight receivers from the Buccaneers, Falcons, Seahawks, and Rams. Using my database of weekly game logs, I found every game over the past two seasons that each duo played with each other in the same week, removing bye weeks and any week where one or both players missed a game.
Using these games, I then charted the number of WR1, WR2, WR3, and WR4 weeks to get a percentage of each type and look for any weekly overlap in terms of both players on the same team having great fantasy production at the same time. Here’s what I found:
This chart probably makes sense to you, since we expect Julio Jones, Cooper Kupp, and Mike Evans to be the main WR1 on their teams (the Godwin percentages are slightly skewed by 2018 data). Additionally, the data for Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf makes sense based on the Seahawks’ low passing volume, which limits each receiver’s weekly upside. Let’s look at this next chart, which shows the percentage of each pair’s fantasy finishes in the same week:
This chart is very, very interesting and each duo seems very different from the others. The two teams that seem the most similar are Atlanta and Tampa Bay, as both are more likely to have two WR1s in a week, or one WR1 and one WR3-4, and less likely to not have at least one good fantasy receiver each week.
Next is the LA Rams, who are also very likely to have two solid fantasy receivers, or one good and one not so good, or neither are good. A lot of these numbers probably stem from Brandin Cooks also being on the team over the past two years and the Rams’ affinity for a wide receiver carousel on a weekly basis.
Finally, the Seahawks’ pair of receivers fall on the opposite end of the spectrum in that it is unlikely either receiver has a WR1 week and it is actually more likely for one to have a WR2 week or neither finish inside the top-25.
This next chart nicely sums up each team’s weekly percentages on an “at least one” basis. As I said above, Tampa Bay is very likely to have at least one good fantasy receiver each week (at the detriment of the other), followed by Atlanta then LA. Additionally, this chart really shows the lack of weekly upside from the Seahawks receivers, as it is more likely that both receivers will fall outside the top-25 in a given week.
I apologize for how dry this article has been to this point, as this study was very numbers based and sometimes I’m not the most articulate. There are some key takeaways from this study that we can apply to future wide receiver duos, as well as other pairs in the NFL today that were not mentioned yet like the Browns or Lions. Here are the key bullet points of this study:
In general, one wide receiver does well every week, and in most cases, it is at the detriment of the other receiver
This one makes the most sense, but it is good this can be confirmed. NFL teams only have so many plays every game and that limits the number of opportunities players get, especially pass catchers. If one receiver is getting eight or more targets in a given week, there are fewer targets for the other receivers to get, which limits their production.
Some teams can offer two weekly WR1 weeks if their weekly passing volume is high (Falcons, Bucs, 2018 Steelers, 2018 Vikings, etc.)
Going off the previous takeaway, this also makes sense. If an NFL team is throwing 35 or more times in a week, there is a better chance that two receivers could see eight or more targets and produce well together. In the two weeks in 2019 where both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were top-12 receivers, Jameis Winston attempted 41 and 54 passes. Both receivers averaged over 12 targets per game in those two weeks. It does not happen often, but the teams with high passing volume are more likely to do it.
Low passing volume offenses cap weekly upside of receivers
Again, this is not new information, it is just nice to reaffirm what we should already know. If high volume passing offenses can make multiple receivers successful for fantasy, then the opposite is true for low volume passing offenses. It is no surprise when you look at 2019 wide receiver finishes that teams like the Jets, Redskins, Niners, and Ravens all had their top fantasy receiver finish outside the top-25, as those four teams all finished in the bottom 10 of pass attempts.
We all know how crazy efficient Russell Wilson is, but there is still only so much he can do when he has multiple games under 25 pass attempts. This does not mean there are not good fantasy receivers on low volume offenses (AJ Brown, DJ Chark, Courtland Sutton), but low pass attempts lower the ceiling for all players involved.
Using these takeaways, we can attempt to connect some of these shared receiving rooms with fantasy success.
Dallas Cowboys
I would still be on board with all three of the Dallas Cowboys’ receivers, at all three of their respective costs. Michael Gallup took a considerable hit since the NFL Draft, and rightfully so, but that does not mean he won’t continue to be a big part of this offense in 2020 or even 2021. His price is starting to creep back up to where it was pre-draft, but I like him, as well as Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb all moving forward in a pass-heavy Cowboys offense.
Cleveland Browns
This team is tough to predict under a new head coach and offensive coordinator. Everyone is quick to assume the Browns will replicate the 2019 Minnesota Vikings under Kevin Stefanski, which would mean a very low volume pass attack. However, I think Stefanski will be more willing to open up the playbook a bit more with the weapons he has now and no threat of being fired for not running the ball 70% of the time. The Browns were already below league average last year in total pass attempts, so the status quo in that department would still mean success for Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr, who both saw over 130 targets. I see no reason to distrust either receiver based on opportunity.
Arizona Cardinals
The addition of DeAndre Hopkins is HUGE for this offense, and Kyler Murray specifically. I have no doubt that Hopkins will continue to see 140+ targets on the Cardinals. The player to watch instead is Christian Kirk, who was becoming a high target volume receiver in 2019, on pace for over 130 targets in 16 games. While I do not believe he will reach 130 across from Hopkins, Kirk should still see upwards of 100-110 in the up-tempo, fast-paced offense of Kliff Kingsbury. This offense probably fits into a ‘lite’ version of the Falcons with less passing volume, but enough to make everyone happy at cost.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Diontae Johnson had an awesome rookie campaign with a bunch of XFL quarterbacks and should slide nicely into the WR2 role on this offense behind JuJu Smith-Schuster. With Ben Roethlisberger back, the Steelers are one of a handful of teams with real 600+ pass attempt potential. We have seen Roethlisberger support two WR1s in a season before with Antonio Brown and Juju in 2018. While I do not believe 2020 will be the same offensive caliber as 2018, Ben can still make JuJu and Johnson weekly fantasy starters in the vein of the LA Rams mold, with both receivers finishing inside the top-36 on a regular basis.
New York Giants
This receiving corps is a tricky one for me because on the surface, there is not much the fantasy community really loves, but in reality, it seems like a lighter version of the Dallas Cowboys. The Giants were one of only nine teams in 2019 with over 600 pass attempts, more than the Cowboys. All three of Golden Tate, Sterling Shepard, and Darius Slayton are talented receivers, each capable of being the guy in a given week.
Slayton is loved most by the dynasty community and understandably so as the youngest and most recent to produce for fantasy. However, we should not forget that both Shepard and Tate averaged 14 fantasy points per game last year as well. I like all three receivers for fantasy, especially Shepard and Tate as veteran options going outside the top-130 in startup drafts. Both will be more consistent on a weekly basis with a higher floor of targets, while Slayton becomes more of the vertical threat, with opportunities for fantasy home runs, but inconsistent weekly with the other two on the field, not to mention Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley.
Hopefully, these key takeaways can help you make decisions about other future multi-receiver teams as we begin to enter this new age of fantasy football. These situations are starting to become more common throughout the NFL and deciphering these offenses is going to be instrumental to your fantasy success.
It is also important to know that some players will just have bad weeks because it just was not their turn. In 2019, only 13 wide receivers had eight or more top-24 weeks, and all but one finished inside the top-16 receivers on the season.
Consistency in fantasy football is overrated, especially at the wide receiver position, and that statement is only going to become more true as the days of the alpha wide receiver start to dwindle. I am never one to complain about more talent in the NFL, but it does make the weekly game of fantasy a bit harder.
- 11 Players to Buy in Dynasty Fantasy Football Leagues Right Now - February 24, 2024
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 18 - January 1, 2024
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 17 - December 25, 2023
