How Allen Robinson is (Somehow) Still Underrated
Matt McGloin. Christian Hackenberg. Blake Bortles. Mitchell Trubisky.
1,018 yards. 1,432 yards. 1,400 yards. 1,147 yards.
That kind of sums up the whole part of this article anyway, doesn’t it? While Nick Foles isn’t some sparkly new upgrade as a whole, the different areas in which Foles and Trubisky tend to succeed suggest there is still massive potential for Allen Robinson to hit a whole new level in 2020 with Foles under center. Let’s take a deeper dive and see exactly why a new quarterback can move Robinson to a comfortable top ten dynasty wide receiver.
Current Price: WR14
Robinson’s finish as WR8 (PPR) in 2019 gave him some deserved hype in dynasty ADP last fall, but his value has plateaued over the last five months. Despite Chicago only drafting one wide receiver in the fifth round and the only free agency addition being Jimmy Graham, Robinson is all but a lock to receive 150+ targets for what would be the *fourth* time in five healthy seasons before turning 28.
For reference, the only receivers with five 150+ target seasons are Larry Fitzgerald, Antonio Brown, Brandon Marshall, DeAndre Hopkins, Andre Johnson, and Chad Johnson. Given the room for growth and his current price tag, a connection from Foles to Robinson is a dynasty investment bound for positive returns.
QB COMPARISON
While Chicago’s front office is still showing belief in Mitchell Trubisky heading into camp, it’s hard to believe he isn’t on an incredibly short leash. After squandering an opportunity with one of the best defenses in recent memory due to poor QB play and another disappointing season in 2019, the addition of Foles is more than a simple depth signing. Especially after Chicago brought not only Foles to town, but new QB coach John DeFilippo – who worked with Foles in Philadelphia AND Jacksonville.
Even if the QB competition will be kept open “as late as possible” according to Matt Nagy, I see these two signings as more than coincidental. Let’s take a look at Trubisky’s 2019 vs. Foles’ 2018 when he was healthy:
Foles has been statistically superior to Trubisky in nearly every way, with Super Bowl MVP-level experience to boot. A lot of Foles’ and Trubisky’s stats appear nearly identical at a high level, but breaking down all of their pass attempts by distance and direction shows some clear disparities.
Nick Foles: ELITE SHORT ACCURACY
Mitchell Trubisky: *SAD TROMBONE*
In order to know where Foles’ skills are transferrable in a new landing spot, a historical study of his prior season is a good place to start. His overwhelming majority of short passes does not scream elite fantasy potential for any wide receiver, but what’s important to note is his remarkable efficiency on these short passes.
Trubisky attempted the 12th most passes in the league last season, but he never really stood out as a successful passer anywhere other than one region of the field (surprise – Allen Robinson territory). Meanwhile, Foles excelled in several areas at an above-average success rate. With Anthony Miller establishing himself as a viable second receiver and Tarik Cohen earning 150 receptions over the last two seasons, the skill players in Chicago are a dream scenario for someone like Foles.
You may be asking yourself “but so what if Foles is a great short passer, and why does that automatically mean Robinson will shoot up in value? Don’t they have like a million tight ends to compete for targets in that range of the field?”
While you may be right about their plethora of tight ends (still a major headscratcher…), let me break down exactly why this pushes the needle up *specifically* for Robinson versus Miller and his other teammates.
Allen Robinson: TOP Eight DYNASTY WR
Just like the study we just did above breaking down Trubisky vs. Foles and seeing exactly where each player stands out best, I have done the exact same thing for Chicago’s pass catchers. Below is a list of all Bears receivers who had at least a 15% market share in each passing direction with Trubisky under center in 2019. The best statistic of each type is highlighted to make this info more digestible:
Notice anything in particular?
Not only is it more abundantly clear that Robinson is their alpha weapon, but seeing exactly how well it matches up to Foles’ strengths is extremely exciting as a dynasty manager:
THIS is the reason I believe Robinson will receive a much higher performance boost than Miller or anyone else on the Bears roster. Robinson already slots in perfectly to where Foles is most comfortable when making his first read, and Miller’s designed role on the team involves a much higher proportion of deep routes, where Foles is not quite as successful and is more hesitant to throw (in that 2018-19 season, Foles ranked #39 of 39 eligible quarterbacks in average depth of target).
Even with the likes of a healthy Alshon Jeffery and speedy Nelson Agholor in Philadelphia, Foles still ranked dead last in average depth of target. For these reasons and seeing exactly where Robinson wins so often, I’m all aboard the Allen Robinson hype train and see him as a blue-chip dynasty investment. He turns only 27 next week!
ROBINSON IS THE CLEAR GO-TO GUY WHEN IT COUNTS
The final study I performed looking at this Chicago quarterback battle is the level of trust the Bears coaching staff already has on each current receiver when it matters most. After breaking down every pass play in the 2019 season and separating them by down and distance, Robinson (once again) separates himself by a large margin over his teammates.
An analysis of each team’s target leader on third and fourth down shows that not only did the coaching staff have the most trust in Robinson no matter the distance, but he also performed extremely well on the most crucial plays of their drives last season:
CONCLUSION: HOW TO VALUE AROB
No matter how you dig into the data, all signs point to a monster season from Allen Robinson in 2020. He has established himself as a receiver with an incredibly high floor, and volume is king in fantasy football. Expert sites like Fantasy Points and ESPN both project Robinson among the top five this year in both targets and receptions, which makes his WR14 dynasty ADP incredibly cheap in comparison
Using our amazing Trade Finder app within the site, the recent trades for Robinson honestly shocked me:
Each of the teams receiving Robinson in these trades got him at a great price. The time to capitalize on ARob’s value is now, as this is a contract year for Robinson and will look to earn a much-deserved extension. Should Foles win the starting job, he and Robinson’s dominance in short-yardage situations leaves Robinson’s dynasty stock destined to skyrocket even higher in 2020.
Capitalize on this buying window before it’s too late.
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 17 - December 28, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 16 - December 21, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 15 - December 15, 2020
