Twitter Observations: The Value of Drew Brees, TJ Hockenson’s Injury Woes

Michael Moore Posted On August 22, 2020

Every week we get closer to the NFL season, the odds are better that we’ll actually have a season and a full one at that! It also means all those drafts – rookie, startups, redraft – won’t be in vain, nor the trades that teams make in the off-season or trades you’re thinking about involving the players below. Here are some tweets that may prompt some movement.

A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a redraft slant to them but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications.

Easy Breesy

Drew Brees has posted career highs in fantasy points per dropback over the past two seasons and no one is talking about it…

Was on pace for 365 points 👀 in 10 games he played full snaps in 2019… despite Taysom Hill noise.

Now add Emmanuel Sanders to MT, Kamara and Cook.

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) August 18, 2020

Drew Brees has been so good for so long that we all just take that for granted as he enters his 20th season – literally a dozen seasons of 4,000 yards and a decades-worth of 30-touchdown seasons, Brees has been an enormous return on investment if you drafted him way back in 2001. He should provide a good return this season as he has the entire cast coming back to New Orleans including Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara (both of whom were in elementary school when Brees was drafted).

Dynasty Impact: For single-quarterback leagues, Brees is a cheap option if you’re in win-now mode. According to our (recently updated) DLF Trade Analyzer, you can pick up Brees for a third-round rookie pick.

Things get complicated in superflex leagues. Obviously, the value of a good quarterback goes up but, in Brees’ case, it jumps up by a whole round and would cost you an early second-round rookie pick. I would hold off if that’s the case. Not only could Justin Herbert be available but the fact that Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovaiola will go early pushes players at other positions down the list.

Lion Exchange

T.J. Hockenson says the ankle has been an issue for him this offseason, he notices it's still not quite 100%, but he's out there running around and trying to push forward

— kyle meinke (@kmeinke) August 17, 2020

Uh oh. If an injury has had all off-season to heal and it’s still an issue, it can officially be considered serious. And if anyone needed a full off-season to develop, it was Hockenson. After being taken with the eighth (!) overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, hopes were high for his rookie season. He started off with a bang in week one with six receptions for 131 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately, it was all downhill from there as he caught just 26 more balls the rest of the season before being knocked out with the aforementioned ankle injury. In all, he finished as just a TE3 in fantasy scoring.

Dynasty Impact: Despite the complete drop off in production and lingering injury, Hockenson is still considered a top-ten dynasty tight end. Forgive me for having Eric Ebron flashbacks but the same situation that created the disappointment Hockenson had last year is still in place. Same quarterback, same coaching staff. The Lions also added D’Andre Swift in the draft who should add another piece to the passing game, especially in a short-field situation.

All of which to say Hockenson should still provide value, just maybe not top-ten dynasty value. According to our Trade Analyzer, Hockenson is currently worth an early second-round rookie pick which, for this year, could mean taking a plethora of the second-tier rookie receivers. I’d consider that deal, especially if you have a viable alternative to Hockenson.

This is a (bad) Godwin Dream

Becoming a noteworthy trend. Peter King called out Miller in his article last week.

If Miller is the slot in 11 and 12 is the base grouping, Godwin is impacted.

Godwin 2019 zone vs. man splits 👀

14% tgt/route; 1.29 YPRR
21% tgt/route; 2.84 YPRR

Worst splits in the biz. https://t.co/ywl4hrMVAb

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) August 19, 2020

Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that Tom Brady would want the slot receiver to play a big role in his new home in Tampa. Who can forget Wes Welker and Julian Edelman racking up big numbers when, on the surface, it would appear neither could make the roster of any other team?

Enter Scott Miller, who many may not have heard of until this article, and exiting stage left is Chris Godwin – the same Godwin who is currently DLF’s fourth-ranked receiver and is now getting bumped in his own offense for sixth-round, sub-six foot and 175-pound receiver.

Dynasty Impact: The addition of Brady to the offense would, initially, seem like a boon to Godwin’s dynasty value. But there are only so many mouths to feed between perpetual stud Mike Evans, Miller, and old friend Rob Gronkowski. For Godwin to repeat what he did, even this year, you’d need a repeat of the Bucs passing game that passed for over 5,000 yards.

Tom Brady is good, but is he 5,000-yards good at this age? Godwin is also a free agent after this season and is not guaranteed to be back in the situation that produced his 1,333-yard, nine-touchdown season. Using the DLF Trade Analyzer, Godwin could net a top-two rookie pick including Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

Ice Blake-r

Blake Jarwin
Wasn’t special in college
Went undrafted
Is at best the 5th option in DAL
His HC doesn’t feature TEs

Check your process. This is a low ceiling TE pick

— Jacob Rickrode (@ClutchFantasy) August 18, 2020

Hopes were high for Jarwin at the beginning of the off-season. Not only did the Cowboys move on from veteran Jason Witten but they signed Jarwin to a three-year extension. They also brought back the full cast of characters around him including Pro Bowler Dak Prescott.

But the first domino to fall was the Cowboys hiring of Mike McCarthy who, as the tweet mentioned, is not exactly known for relying on tight ends. Add that to the fact that receiver CeeDee Lamb fell into the Cowboys lap in the draft and is assumed to start taking targets away immediately. What started out as a promising 2020 season quickly got re-routed.

Dynasty Impact: Jarwin has largely been forgotten as the Cowboys prepare for 2020. All eyes are on Prescott and how he performs under the franchise tag or CeeDee Lamb and how quickly he’ll break out. Still, Jarwin is ranked pretty low among tight ends, coming in at 20th according to our DLF rankers. I would float a trade if it meant getting an early third-round pick, as our Trade Analyzer suggests. Jarwin is already 26 and doesn’t figure to play a big role in the Cowboys’ offense anytime soon.

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Michael Moore

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Michael has played fantasy football for over 20 years when his mom funded his first team in the fourth grade. He’s contributed to various fantasy football publications and most recently spent five years writing for the Fantasy side of things at Pro Football Focus.