Breakout or Fakeout: Irv Smith Jr

Ryan Finley

In the ‘Breakout or Fakeout’ series, we identify unproven players whose values are more reliant upon their potential than their production. Will they step up and become must-start fantasy assets? Or are they players to avoid? Read on to find out…

Today, we focus on Irv Smith Jr, Minnesota’s sophomore tight end. Let’s begin by covering his football career so far.

Pre NFL Draft

The 2019 tight end draft class was led by a pair of Iowa Hawkeyes in TJ Hockenson and Noah Fant. Those two prospects did lead the class in the draft as well, both selected in the first round. But beyond the top two, there were a number of interesting prospects like Kahale Warring, Jace Sternberger, and Irv Smith Jr out of Alabama. Is this the year that Smith breaks out in fantasy, or are we headed for a disappointing fakeout?

Here’s a glance at Smith’s stats while at Alabama:

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Statistics from Sports Reference.

Smith did not have a lot of production in his sophomore season, though three TDs on only 14 receptions showed that he was a scoring threat. His junior year saw his production go way up, with over 700 yards and seven TDs. He also has a very good average yards per reception at 16.1. His total yardage is low compared to other TEs in his draft class with a similar yards-per-reception number.

Now let’s take a look at his spider graph courtesy of MockDraftable:

There are an awful lot of numbers towards the low end on this graph.

He is small for a tight end at 6’2” and 242 pounds. That does translate into better speed than average, as he was top three in the 40-yard dash. His broad and vertical jumps were average to low, he was bottom three in arm length and hand size, and even his three-cone score is poor, where you hope a smaller player could perform better.

Still, his production at a big-time program in Alabama led to the Vikings drafting him in the second round in 2019.

Minnesota Vikings

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Statistics from Pro Football Reference.

This is actually a decent rookie year, especially at tight end, where you don’t see many big early breakouts. He scored the fourth-most fantasy points among rookie tight ends, behind Fant, Hockenson, and Dawson Knox. 300 yards and two touchdowns isn’t electric, but the 17 first downs are good. Smith’s opportunity was fairly consistent throughout his rookie season, but his high yardage mark was 60 yards, and he didn’t have any games with more than six targets.

Film Study

College Film

Since Smith only has the one NFL season under his belt, I took a look at a couple of college games to get a sense of him as a prospect. I watched his film for a 2018 game against Texas A&M and the SEC Championship game against Georgia the same year.

Blocking, as with many TE prospects, is Smith’s weakest point. There are times where he successfully squares up to his man, which is good to see, but there are just as many times where he either loses badly or whiffs entirely. Smith showed difficulty when identifying and squaring up blockers in space. The good thing here is I did see a willingness to engage his blocks. He did not suffer from weak effort, but his real problem was lack of playing strength or some poor technique.

Smith’s route running is a little better than average. He showed good instincts coming out of the backfield and good cuts when running out cuts against linebackers. He is also able to line up like a true wide receiver and get down the field. He does not show the kind of suddenness you want to beat his man out of breaks consistently, but he may just need more seasoning and experience. Smith has some trouble getting true separation, and I would hope that could be improved for a player of his size and speed.

Smith makes some strong catches in traffic or when he will certainly take a hit and can hold onto the ball. A tight end has to be able to do that at the NFL level. However, I did also see some focus drops, in particular a wide-open drop in the SEC title game. He did make up for that drop later in the game with a key fourth-quarter reception.

2019 Film

A lot of what I saw in his college film showed up in his Vikings film as well. He’s still an inconsistent blocker, but the Vikings have Kyle Rudolph around to alleviate any real pressure on Smith in that respect. Smith made some of the same tough catches over the middle of the field, but I did not see as much field stretching from him as I would like. That may have more to do with the offense and personnel, but perhaps that will improve in 2020 now that Stefon Diggs has left town. The pro film told me that the game isn’t too big for him, but I’m not sure it made me feel he is ready to take a big leap.

Breakout or Fakeout?

Before I get to my verdict, what am I thinking would constitute a breakout? For a tight end, I’d probably want to see a top 12 or perhaps top 15 finish. He would have to become a usable starter at the position for me to consider him a breakout.

With Smith, there are some skills in the passing game. He has good speed and his hands can be strong, but there is a little too much inconsistency in his game for my tastes. One other factor to consider here is the aforementioned Rudolph, an established veteran who just signed a long-term deal with the Vikings. We do also have to consider offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak, however, and he has traditionally squeezed a lot of production out of that position. And with the departure of Diggs, there may be room for Smith to produce if he can improve his consistency.

All things considered, I didn’t see anything on film or in his stats that got me particularly excited about his future, at least not for his second season in 2020. There is receiving talent, and he has a real “want to” that I like, but I would want to see more to judge Irv Smith Jr a breakout candidate.

Verdict: Fakeout