IDP Studs, Values and Sleepers: AFC West

Tom Kislingbury

The AFC West is home to the current Super Bowl champions and some of the very best defensive players in the NFL. But we know IDP value and real NFL value often differ. Here we take a look at the players to know who will help you win your league.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos were expected to be much better defensively in 2019 with Vic Fangio taking over as head coach. It didn’t quite happen that way. They were a good, not great defense and the lack of turnovers combined with too many penalties really held them back. They also had to make a few moves to ensure their personnel with Fangio’s system – notably at LB and on the defensive line.

With those changes, this defense has the opportunity to level up.

Stud – Justin Simmons, S

Simmons was one of the best defenders in the NFL in 2019, although no one talks about him. His 65 solos and 28 assists were good benchmarks but because he’s not a true box banger, he lacks hype.

Regardless – he should be one of the better safeties in the league again and has an excellent chance to be a top 12 option for you.

Value – Bradley Chubb, OLB

Chubb was a little overhyped after a rookie season where he recorded 12 sacks from just 57 pressures. He was always heading for some regression – but his 2019 was poor (even before his injury).

In 2018 he recorded a pressure on about seven percent of his snaps. In his injury-shortened 2019 that fell to just four percent. Even if we pro-rate his 2019 up to a full season’s worth of playing time, it looks bad.

So why is he on this list? Because he’s an outside LB coming off injury and poor form. In IDP memories tend to be short and there’s a decent possibility you can get him as a value even given his name value. He retains his talent and can easily be a very good pass rusher again.

Sleeper – AJ Johnson, LB

Okay, sleeper is pushing it a bit. But Johnson never really got people excited like he might have done. He took over the starting job in the middle of last season and looked like he deserved the spot. Normally that would get everyone excited but Johnson just doesn’t have the hype.

You need to be wary of him given his age (28) and relative lack of flexibility (he’s a run-defending LB first) but he’s a cheap option for a top 36 LB.

Fade – Von Miller, OLB

Miller managed nine sacks and 77 pressures last year. He’s been an elite player for about a decade now. But a lot of his pressure in 2019 was of the clean-up variety and he really seemed to have lost step. He’s still fine for you to trot out if you need to, but his best days are in the past and he’s a sell candidate.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs won their first Super Bowl in decades and celebrated with a contract so eye-catching the Dolphins wish they had had the idea. Their defense has some stars, but it’s nowhere near the level of their offense.

Stud – Tyrann Mathieu, S

The Honey Badger is a do-it-all player. He’s not a box safety. He’s not a slot. He’s not a free safety. He is a playmaker.

You can lock him in as a top 12 option as long as he remains healthy.

Value – Frank Clark, DE

Clark has a lot of recognition so you’re unlikely to get him super-late. But he is still a value given his well-publicized struggles for much of last year.

At his best he remains a top-tier pass rusher and he’s probably going to have plenty of good weeks in 2020.

Sleeper – Willie Gay, LB

Gay has every chance to finish as the top IDP LB in 2020. The Chiefs have long lacked an LB good enough in coverage to play every snap and it’s not for want of looking. If Gay can fulfill his college promise in that phase, he’s an every-down player with all the productivity that brings.

Fade – Anthony Hitchens, LB

He lost his every-down job and snap volume last season and he’s not getting it back. Hitchens has an uphill battle to finish as a top 36 LB.

Las Vegas Raiders

The common belief is that the Raiders have turned it around and are on an upward trajectory. That feels overly optimistic. Specifically, their defense went from one of the worst of the past decade in 2018 to one of the bottom 20%. That’s hardly uplifting.

Stud – Cory Littleton, LB

Jon Gruden has proved laughably bad at finding modern LBs so far since his return from TV. Littleton is a fine player and excellent in coverage – so hopefully he can stay healthy and continue his excellent form as a Ram. He has a good chance of being a top 12 LB.

Value – Clelin Ferrell, DE

Maxx Crosby got all the hype in 2019 when he outproduced Ferrell. But on a snap-by-snap basis they really weren’t that different. In situations like that, you can always do well by betting on the guy not getting Twitter in a tizzy.

Ferrell was certainly not good as a rookie, but the Raiders are going to give him every chance to turn it around.

Sleeper – Maurice Hurst, DT

Back in 2018, the football world thought Hurst was a far better layer than PJ Hall coming out of college. But Hurst had a heart issue and the Raiders shocked everyone by selecting Hall in the second round.

Just 14 months later and Hall has been cut while Hurst has developed into a good interior rusher. He needs help because the Raiders are still a very poor pass-rushing team but if the edge players can develop, Hurst has the potential to be a useful DT starter for you.

Fade – Maxx Crosby, DE

Crosby isn’t a bad player at all. But he’s being drafted as a top 12 DE and that’s just wrong. In 2019 he finished 40th in pressures among edge players – just behind Adrian Clayborn, Whitney Mercilus, and Derek Barnett – despite having the 19th-most pass-rush snaps.

It was a fine rookie season and he seems to be a real find given how late he was drafted – but he should absolutely not be considered an every-week top 24 DE, let alone an elite option.

Fade – Johnathan Abram, S

Abram was a banger in college. A heat-seeking missile. Then famously he was admonished on Hard Knocks for going too full-on against his own team-mates in camp. This gets us IDP people excited. Unfortunately, it may not translate to the field.

He played just 48 snaps in a single game last year but in that time he was mostly deployed as a deep safety in Paul Guenther’s tried-and-tested cover-2 scheme.

Unless you believe the Raiders will change the whole shape of the defense for him, he’s going to really, really struggle to be the player IDP owners want him to be.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are the off-season darlings again.

Every summer the football world loves to talk about how great the Chargers’ roster is and how balanced they are. It’s just not true on the defensive side. They have some serious holes masked by a couple of star players.

In 2019 the Chargers were second-worst in pressure, they’ve struggled to stop the run for years, their LB situation is unsettled and they have holes in the secondary.

Stud – Derwin James, S

James missed much of last season but remains one of the best and most talented safeties in the NFL. He is phenomenal. And his usage is tailor-made for IDP purposes. He’s basically an extra LB and should be expected to rack up stats.

Stud – Joey Bosa, DE

Bosa is one of the top five or six dynasty assets on the edge. His new contract shows just how valuable he is when even a skinflint organization like the Chargers will pay megabucks.

He can be relied on to be a one-man wrecking crew, which is handy as there is very little help for him

Value – Drue Tranquill, LB

Betting on Chargers LBs under Gus Bradley is a fool’s errand. He’s chopped and changed on a by-drive and a weekly basis. We can assume Kenneth Murray will own one LB spot, but the other is up for grabs.

And yet Tranquill has the best chance of any of the options to grab one of the jobs. Unlike Murray he is excellent in coverage and was trusted to cover TEs in man as a rookie. It’s a gamble for sure – but Tranquill is all potential.

Sleeper – Jerry Tillery, DT

Tillery was a first-round pick in 2019 and frankly looked like a bust as a rookie. He struggled to get on the field and struggled to affect the game when he did.

But his talent remains, and the Chargers are desperate for some interior rush. Given he’s going as late as any player can, he’s worth an end-of-roster pick – so long as you’re fully aware you may have to drop him early.

Fade – Any other LB

Denzel Perryman, Kyzir White, Nick Vigil. Uchenna Nwosu. All these guys are going to disappoint you. They might have a few games where they start and play significant snaps, but it’s not going to be on a consistent basis.

tom kislingbury