IDP Studs, Values and Sleepers: NFC North
The NFC North is a division of faded glory right now. It is made up of teams who used to be contenders but just aren’t with their current rosters.
Packers fans, in particular, will feel aggrieved at this – but they did not deserve their 13 wins last year, and the division should be much closer in 2020.
Chicago Bears
The Bears had an elite defense back in 2018. In 2019 it was merely good. Such is the fate of top defenses. Bears fans will assume they can get back to the heights. We’ll see if they’re right.
Stud – Khalil Mack, OLB
Mack had something of a down year in 2019 with “just” nine sacks. But he remains one of the best pass rushers in the league. He actually had more pressures than 2018 when he managed 13 sacks so you can hold him with confidence. Expect a bounce back.
Value – Danny Trevathan, LB
Trevathan looks like a firm holder of one of the LB spots on the Bears. His health is a worry, but he should be a top 36 LB. That brings unspectacular but reliable IDP value.
Sleeper – Deon Bush, S
Eddie Jackson is guaranteed the free safety job. Deon Bush is unheralded but seems to be in possession of the strong safety job, at least for now. He has a great chance of outproducing his minimal value. Don’t invest in him but if he’s available for free, he’s a good target.
Fade – Akiem Hicks, DE
Hicks has been a fantastic player. But he’s an interior lineman on the wrong side of 30. You need to be selling him if you can get anything approaching good value. He may well have another good year but this is probably your last chance at getting what he’s worth back.
Detroit Lions
The Lions should be a top defense under Matt Patricia. Sadly, they’ve looked anything but. In 2019 in particular this was a horrible unit.
It would be great to see him turn it around and there’s certainly a spark of genius in Patricia – but the chances of him becoming a good head coach look minimal at the time of writing.
Stud – Trey Flowers, DE
Lions fans were disappointed in 2019 but he remained what he was before – a 70-pressure player who is reliable and consistent.
Flowers is never likely to have a 15-sack season – but he is a top 24 IDP DE and he should be valued as such.
Value – Danny Shelton, DT
League settings are key here. Shelton is a fine option in leagues with tackle strong scoring for DTs and a requirement to start at least two of them.
Sleeper – Will Harris, S
Tracy Walker is being valued as a top-five safety. That doesn’t seem like a good bet given he does not have the sort of role that normally delivers huge tackle numbers. But Harris is going way, way later and could easily step into a far bigger role in his second year. He’s an end-of-roster option but a nice one.
Fade – All LBs
You can do better.
None of them are guaranteed an every-down role. None of them are likely to be efficient. Avoid them if you can. It’s just very unlikely that any of them are reliable starting options for your team.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers are an aggressive defense built on a ferocious pass rush, at least so they’d have you believe. In reality, they were a little overly dependent on their starting edge players in 2019. There’s talent here – but they also need improvement.
Stud – Kenny Clark, DT
Clark is called a nose tackle, but he lines up plenty in different alignments. He’s so good he just wins wherever he plays. Treat him as a top-12 tackle.
Value – Christian Kirksey, LB
Plenty of dynasty owners think Kirksey is injury prone and a big risk. Ignore them. He’s in a fantastic position for 2020.
This is a scheme that funnels productivity towards the middle LB spot, and no one can seriously challenge Kirksey for that job.
Sleeper – Adrian Amos, S
Amos has been used plenty as an LB on passing downs by the Packers. He’s not a typical box safety – but he could easily become a top producer at his position in 2020 with a little luck.
Fade – Za’Darius Smith, OLB
Smith was incredible in 2019. But it was also an outlier season for him as he stayed healthy all year and was efficient. It seems churlish to expect a fall, but he is a clear regression candidate.
Minnesota Vikings
Mike Zimmer remains one of the best defensive coaches in the NFL. His secondary fell apart a little bit in 2019, but the defense was still formidable.
Stud – Danielle Hunter, DE
Hunter is one of the top five or six edge rushers in the NFL. You don’t need to think much harder about him than this.
Value – Eric Kendricks, LB
Kendricks was one of the better LBs in the NFL in 2019. He was excellent in all phases. As the only true every-down LB on the Vikings (Anthony Barr plays on the edge a bit), he is in prime position to repeat his career year.
Sleeper – Shamar Stephen, DT
Stephen is another player who benefits from DT scoring that rewards tackles. The Vikings play “sides” DTs. They do not really have a true nose or undertackle – they just use a left and a right tackle and align according to the offense. This tends to reward tackles.
Fade – Harrison Smith, S
Harrison Smith is a spectacular NFL player. He’s great fun to watch and has a brilliant, flexible skillset. But his IDP production has never quite caught up with his true value. He spends too much time playing deep.
Someone in your league will likely value him as an elite IDP safety and he just is not that.
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