Breakout or Fakeout: Mecole Hardman

Joseph Nammour

In the ‘Breakout or Fakeout’ series, we identify unproven players whose values are more reliant upon their potential than their production. Will they step up and become must-start fantasy assets? Or are they players to avoid? Read on to find out…

Mecole Hardman consistently generates a lot of buzz in the fantasy football community. He’s one of the most athletic football players in the world and just so happens to be attached to the best quarterback and one of the most prolific offenses in the league.

As A Prospect

This may be hard to believe, but 2020 will be just Hardman’s fourth year playing the wide receiver position full time. He was the 12th overall prospect in the 2016 class per 247Sports’ Composite rankings, but was recruited as an “athlete”. Hardman ultimately ended up playing cornerback as a freshman before permanently switching over to the offensive side of the ball in 2017.

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Statistics via Sports Reference.

As a result, his analytical profile looked really poor as a player that never broke out, had a 19th-percentile college dominator rating, and a below-average college market share. But, as mentioned above, his background has a lot to do with that.

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Growth Potential

Athletically, Hardman is not too dissimilar from Tyreek Hill. I mention this because Hill also was not a full-time wide receiver until reaching the pro level, and he has since developed into one of the most dangerous all-around receivers in the league. Learning from Hill, Sammy Watkins, and the Kansas City coaching staff should allow Hardman the room to continue improving as a natural receiver.

Facts:

We can expect Hardman to play more than 44 percent of the snaps in 2020 (unlike last season), which means he should run more routes than he did last year. And even though his efficiency should regress, he plays with Patrick Mahomes, who is good at football. Hardman’s speed, his quarterback’s talent, and the scheme he plays in should ensure he remains more efficient than the average wide receiver. However, he’s due for touchdown regression, because we cannot expect a player to continue to score at the rate Hardman did (seven times on 41 targets).

Hardman is truly special in the open field, and his acceleration is unrivaled by anyone except perhaps teammate Tyreek Hill. Hardman creates separation and can’t be caught from behind, which led to a number of big plays last year.

He still has significant room for improvement as a route runner. Hardman’s releases at the line of scrimmage often telegraph the routes he’s going to run before he runs them. He improved as the year progressed, but the releases he relied upon were not diverse and occasionally somewhat sloppy. Hardman has the foot speed to continue to progress here, and some development would ensure he gets more involved in the passing game.

As mentioned earlier, Hardman tied for the league lead in touchdowns from the slot despite very few targets on the season. Aligning out of the slot allows Hardman to get the free releases he needs in order to create instant separation. He needs to play in the slot in order for his potential to be maximized.

A Deeper Look

Hardman was a trendy pick in 2019 dynasty rookie drafts right around the time Tyreek Hill was under investigation by the league for well-publicized off-field incidents. Rightfully or not, Hardman was viewed as Hill’s direct replacement were Hill’s career to have ended prematurely. Now, we know Hill did not miss any time due to discipline, but he did miss parts of six games in 2019. Here’s how Hardman performed in his absence:

Hardman’s target share bumped up from 4.2% to 12.3%, but he still averaged just 2.3 receptions, 43.2 yards, and 0.33 touchdowns in those six games.

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Stats courtesy of Rich Hribar and Sharp Football Analysis.

Hardman was targeted just 13 times in the 11 games Hill and Watkins both started and finished healthy. That is a stunning statistic. He did not see five or more targets in any games after week five, and only played more than 20 snaps in half of those games. He was also almost a complete non-factor in the playoffs, catching four passes for 29 yards on six targets across all three games.

The unfortunate truth about this is that the offense is largely unchanged. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has replaced Damien Williams and starting lineman Laurent Duvernay-Tardif has opted out of the season, but Kansas City decided to retain Sammy Watkins and Demarcus Robinson.

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In essence, expecting Hardman’s production to spike is betting on a direct reduction in the roles of multiple other players, which is a distinct possibility.

And perhaps it’s even likely. Young players who produce well and show promise early in their careers are prime candidates for expanded roles. The team has mentioned potentially pulling Hardman off return duties to spend more time with the offense, and it doesn’t make sense to pull a dynamic asset off returns without increasing his usage elsewhere. He will be more involved.

Also enticing is the departure of backup tight end Blake Bell. Some other tight end on the roster will see an increased role, but Bell played 435 snaps (around 40%) last year, and it’s quite possible the Chiefs run more 11 personnel to compensate for his loss.

Watkins and Robinson both had catch rates below 60 percent on significantly more targets than Hardman. Therefore, entering 2020, I am operating under the assumption that rational coaching will opt to involve the more dangerous playmakers on a more consistent basis this season. Hardman was efficient and dangerous enough as a rookie that it is reasonable to project an increased role for him in 2020. Having said that, he’s still clearly behind Hill and Kelce for targets, and I would also expect Watkins and Edwards-Helaire to out-target him as well.

COVID Fragility

Hardman is a player who has a clear trump card on the field, and an injury to Hill or Watkins would propel Hardman into a larger role, as we saw last year. To be clear, I still expect Robinson and Byron Pringle to be peripherally involved, but Hardman’s role would spike in this scenario. I also believe that Hardman will finally surpass Robinson on the depth chart this year.

One of the important discussion points this year is the impact COVID-19 could have on the league. With an increased risk for players to miss time this season, Hardman is probably more likely to step into increased volume than he would be in a normal season. Something like this is impossible to project or forecast and I certainly wouldn’t want to count on it occurring, but the possibility is worth at least mentioning.

Conclusion

Hardman is the type of player who can probably be a low-volume, high-impact player because of his skillset and the offense he plays in. But it’s really hard to bet on a breakout performance when you simply can’t project much volume for the player.

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Ultimately, it depends on how we’re defining a breakout. Do I think Hardman can finish as a top-24 wide receiver (WR2) or better this year? No, I don’t think so. Do I think Hardman can finish as a top-36 wide receiver (WR3) or better this year? I do, but I don’t expect him to be a reliable plug and play starter just yet.

I think he will be usable as a flex option this year and will certainly have some spike weeks to pay off his current cost, but I think his true breakout as an every-week starter and potential fantasy stud will come in 2021. At an August ADP of 82.17, Hardman remains a premier target to buy in startups and trades.

Verdict: Fakeout