Breakout or Fakeout: TJ Hockenson

Shane Manila

In the ‘Breakout or Fakeout’ series, we identify unproven players whose values are more reliant upon their potential than their production. Will they step up and become must-start fantasy assets, or are they players to avoid? Read on to find out…

TJ Hockenson’s 2019 season started with an absolute bang. Targeted nine times in week one, Hockenson pulled in six receptions for 131 yards and a touchdown, on his way to a cool 28.1 fantasy points — finishing as the TE2 for the week. Every dynasty team owner who drafted Hockenson over (my personal favorite TE of the class) Noah Fant had to be feeling great after his week one performance.

Unfortunately, that outburst accounted for over 33% of his fantasy scoring on the entire season.

word image 51

After his opening salvo, Hockenson saw a decrease in usage and production for the majority of the 2019 season. He never scored more than 11.7 fantasy points in any other week and only had more than 50 receiving yards in one other game. Using DLF’s snap share app, we can see that Hockenson saw his snaps fluctuate throughout the remainder of his year.

word image 52

Adding insult to injury, Hockenson also dealt with a shoulder injury for most of the year and suffered a concussion after this ill-advised attempt at hurdling a couple of Chiefs players in week four:

Hockenson’s season came to an end after week 13, where he had an impressive six receptions for a less-than-impressive 18 yards. During the Lions’ Thanksgiving Day loss to the Bears, Hockenson suffered another significant injury — this time to his ankle.

And just in case you thought that perhaps Hockenson’s pitiful stats could be blamed on Matthew Stafford missing half the year…

word image 53

… Nope. Hockenson was bad with or without Stafford. Actually, he a little worse in the eight games he played with Stafford. That’s not to say that if Stafford played the entire year that he and Hockenson’s rapport wouldn’t have improved.

His poor rookie season has provided a small discount to acquire Hockenson, as his ADP has dropped to 92 overall after cresting as the 78th player off the board in October 2019.

screenshot 2020 08 15 at 13.00.15

Now it’s time for us to decide if Hockenson is a player who will breakout or if his rookie year struggles are something we should expect to continue.

I know you’ve been told this before, but let me reiterate it here — you should never expect a rookie tight end to produce. Never. Per Pro Football Reference, there have only been 33 rookie tight ends to exceed 500 receiving yards since the 1920 season. For perspective, there have been 593 occasions that a tight end exceeded the 500 yards receiving total — meaning rookies have only accounted for 5.6% of those seasons. Of last year’s top 12 scoring tight ends (points per game), only three of those players exceeded 500 receiving yards in their rookie seasons. So, yeah, rookie tight ends don’t produce.

Just because Hockenson isn’t unique in having a bad rookie season doesn’t mean he will now turn it around in year two though, does it?

Just as a reminder of how dominant Hockenson was in college, we can compare his Market Share Receiving Yards against the top 12 fantasy scoring tight ends from 2019.

word image 55

Hockenson played two seasons of college ball, at ages 20 and 21. The season he was 20, he outproduced Evan Engram, Zach Ertz, Tyler Higbee, and George Kittle. The season he was 21, he outproduced every tight end on this list except for Ertz. For additional context, I also added Fant to this chart. Fant and Hockenson shared the field during their final two seasons at Iowa, making Hockenson’s production even more impressive.

If you’re into things like “Total Dominator” (you should be), the season Hockenson was 21 — when he soared past the “hit” baseline — should give you the vapors.

word image 56

His college production is one indicator that there should be future success for Hockenson — as is his being the eighth overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft — but it’s his physical metrics is what really makes me salivate. With well above-average speed and agility, and the ability to jump out of the stadium, Hockenson is the quintessential “matchup nightmare” that we want out of our rosters as TE1.

word image 57

Hockenson has spent the off-season bulking up. He shared a hype video to his Facebook page to show off how much more muscular his upper body is, while also showing off that he appears to be fully healed from his broken ankle. If you don’t want to watch the video, just check out the Tweet below showing off his arms:

While getting bulked up isn’t typically a great thing for wide receivers or running backs, it is something you like to see from a tight end who stands 6’5,” as the TE position is especially physical due to the blocking assignments they handle in an offense. Per PFF, Hockenson ranked as the third-worst pass-blocking tight end in 2019, which almost certainly contributed to his up and down snap share as the season progressed. With an additional year in the offensive scheme and the additional bulk from an off-season of working out, Hockenson should show vast improvement as a blocker in his sophomore year.

Admittedly, outside of his week one explosion, there was precious little shown by Hockenson in his rookie year to cause non-believers to buy into him. Very few tight ends hit in their rookie seasons, though, and considering his college production, physical metrics, and draft capital, I’m a firm believer in buying Hockenson.

Verdict: Breakout

shane manila