The DLF Mailbag

Matt Price

Welcome to the DLF mailbag; the article series that answers *your* questions in long-form. It can be difficult to give a detailed response to your questions on twitter so this series is designed to do just that. Each week we’ll do a deep-dive on the questions you have been rolling around in your dynasty mind. If you have something you’d like discussed in this format, please send me a message on twitter @MattPriceFF and include #AskDLF in your tweet. Let’s get into it!

@gentleindif asks…

What am I missing about AJ Brown? Great talent, yes, but unrepeatable efficiency, low targets, production based on yards after the catch and touchdowns is a recipe for disappointment isn’t it?

I don’t think you’re really missing anything in terms of 2020 but you have to remember that this is dynasty we are talking about here and the list of rookie receivers who eclipsed 1,000 yards in their first season is a good one to be on. Brown was the eighth rookie in the last decade to do it.

His company includes:

  • 2011 – AJ Green – Went on to produce six 1,000 yard seasons in his first seven seasons in the league.
  • 2013 – Keenan Allen – Injury struck after his rookie season but has averaged 101 receptions and over 1,000 yards in each of the last three seasons.
  • 2014 – Odell Beckham – Over 1,000 yards in five of his six NFL seasons after leading the league with 109 yards per game as a rookie.
  • 2014 – Mike Evans – Six straight 1,000-yard seasons to begin his career.
  • 2014 – Kelvin Benjamin – The only disappointment on the list.
  • 2015 – Amari Cooper – Four 1,000 yard-seasons in his first five seasons and the only player on the list to do it with multiple teams.
  • 2016 – Michael Thomas – Four straight 1,000 yards season to start his career and set the NFL record for most receptions in a season in 2019.

Six out of the seven receivers to hit the 1,000-yard mark as a rookie went on to be consistent producers for our fantasy teams so you can see why Brown is such a coveted asset. In terms of 2020, I do agree with you that we will likely see some regression in some areas of his game and the Tenessee offense in general, but Brown should get an opportunity to grow seeing as he only saw 84 targets in 11 starts as a rookie.

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His price tag is certainly high. In July ADP, he comes in at WR8 and the 23rd player overall in the late second round.

In terms of rankings, I am the lowest at DLF on Brown at WR16. I prefer Calvin Ridley, DK Metcalf, Odell Beckham, and Mike Evans over him so I am certainly fine with selling at WR8 prices if you can get a nice return. I only have one share across all my league because I didn’t and still don’t love his situation, but even I am worried I don’t have enough exposure and we could be looking at a perennial fantasy WR1.

By all means, explore your trade options, but he is not a player I would be willing to sell low on at this moment.

@BlakeSchulte asks…

Why isn’t Josh Jacobs a first-round dynasty pick? It feels like we saw his floor last season.

I mean, he’s close with an ADP of 14 overall. In six mock drafts conducted in July, Jacobs went at 10, 14, 15, 17, 18, and 20. I think if you want to draft him there it’s fine, but for me, there are definitely enough players above him to push him into the mid-late second round.

The main reason for me is it seems pretty clear the Raiders don’t want to make use of his receiving talents, which for our purposes is one of the main reasons we liked him so much coming out of Alabama.

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Jalen Richard out-targeted Jacobs 43-27 and bested him in receptions 36-20. The Raiders re-signed Richard early this off-season to a two-year $7 million contract with $3.375 million guaranteed so it’s clear he is in their plans for the next two seasons.

Additionally, the team drafted Lynn Bowden as a running back who totaled 114 receptions in three seasons at Kentucky. With these two taking receptions away from Jacobs for the length of his entire rookie contract, it makes him a less attractive PPR option than the players he is being ranked and drafted behind.

What we do have to look forward to from Jacobs though is volume. With 242 touches in 13 games his rookie season, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see Jacobs near that 300-carry mark in 2020.

If he is operating at similar efficiency and can stay on the field for 16 games, it would put him on pace for 1,400+ rushing yards. Stacking up double-digit touchdowns to go with that is in the range of outcomes as well, but again, it’s that floor that’s scary. Jacobs’ highest catch total in a game was three, which he did four times. In three other games, he caught two passes and in the remaining six games he had one or zero receptions.

With that kind of involvement in the passing game, you need him to score a touchdown to salvage his fantasy day. 20 carries for 110 yards with no receptions and no touchdowns is still a great day in the NFL but for fantasy purposes, we should expect a bit more from our late first/early second-round startup picks.

That will do it for this edition of the mailbag! Send in your questions to @MattPriceFF for next week’s piece and include #AskDLF in your tweet.

matt price