Breakout or Fakeout: Hayden Hurst
In the ‘Breakout or Fakeout‘ series, we identify unproven players whose values are more reliant upon their potential than their production. Will they step up and become must-start fantasy assets? Or are they players to avoid? Read on to find out…
Of all of the players to finish as a PPR TE1 in 2019, eight of the twelve (67%) had an August 2019 DLF startup ADP over 100. Finding value at the position is more important than ever as a trend in the dynasty community grows: the tight end premium league. In this format, owners are given an extra half (or sometimes more) point per reception, or are forced to start two players at the position, and sometimes both. The walls are closing in on those dynasty owners who still choose to punt on tight end.
This article series will give savvy dynasty participants a leg up in identifying both undervalued players you should buy right now and overrated players you should sell at their maximum value. All of the trade examples are courtesy of the DLF Trade Finder, but please remember these are just examples. The specific market value of any player will be determined by the competitiveness of your league and the intelligence of the opposing owner in your negotiations. The price to acquire Hayden Hurst in the DLF Staff League will likely be much different (read: higher) than in your home league with a few inexperienced players.
Today, we’ll be looking at Hurst, the heir apparent to the Falcons starting tight end job after Austin Hooper signed in Cleveland. Can Hurst step into Hooper’s role and become a reliable TE1, or will he remain a backbencher in the dynasty landscape?
(Note: If you’re looking for another Hurst breakdown, please check out Jeff Smith’s Late Round TE Bargain Hunting).
Forgotten Man in Baltimore
Statistics from Pro Football Reference.
After being selected 25th overall by the Ravens in 2018, Hurst failed to ever break through in Baltimore thanks to the presence of Mark Andrews. The South Carolina alum only played in 31.6% of the offensive snaps in 2018 and 41.6% in 2018. Despite struggling to get on the field, Hurst was efficient in limited snaps catching 30 of 39 targets for 349 yards and two touchdowns. In fact, per the DLF receiving points per opportunity app, the former Raven ranked among the elite TEs as his 1.97 PPO was just below George Kittle (2.06 PPO) and ahead of Travis Kelce (1.84 PPO).
Perfect Landing Spot in Atlanta
The Falcons sent second and fifth-round picks in the 2020 draft to acquire Hurst’s services (along with a 2020 fourth-rounder). Thankfully, there’s no Andrews to compete with for snaps/targets as I don’t see Khari Lee, Jaeden Graham, or Carson Meier pushing our hero.
In better news, Falcons offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter’s tight ends have a track record of fantasy success as his offenses produced a TE1 in five of the last eight seasons. Most recently Cameron Brate finished as TE9 in 2017 and Austin Hooper put together a TE6 season in 2019.
Dynasty/Trade Value
According to DLF July ADP, Hurst is being selected as the 14th tight end off the board and 120th pick overall. The DLF Trade Finder shows the range of prices for the former Gamecock being a 2021 second on the high end and Darius Slayton on the opposite end of the spectrum.
Now (spoiler alert!), I believe Hurst is well situated for the first TE1 season of his career. Yet, the competitive balance of my roster would determine whether or not I want the Falcon tight end on my roster.
If you’re rebuilding, I’d look to sell the former Gamecock ASAP for a 2021 second-round rookie pick. The COVID-19 pandemic means this season is in serious jeopardy. You don’t want to be stuck with a 27-year-old tight end as the oldest player on your youthful roster come 2021.
Conversely, if your team is a contender you should make every effort to get Hurst on your roster. The above trade is the exact deal I’m looking to make to put my dynasty squad in position to win the trophy. While Slayton is a nice young asset, he’s much more valuable to a rebuilding team than one willing to make a run; just as Hurst is worth more to the team with championship aspirations.
Breakout or Fakeout
Given the red carpet to the starting gig, an offensive coordinator with a history of fantasy success at the tight end, and a reasonable price to acquire… I’m projecting Hayden Hurst to break out in the 2020 season. Now, let’s be clear regarding what it means for him to break out. I’m projecting him to finish as a TE1 with a TE5 ceiling and a TE12 floor. Given this would outperform his TE14 price tag, I’ll be looking to buy Hurst wherever available if I’m contending for a championship.
Verdict: Breakout
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