Instant Analysis: Derrius Guice Released by Washington Football Team
On Friday evening, the consensus 1.02 in 2018 dynasty rookie drafts, Derrius Guice, was arrested on charges of domestic violence. The 23-year-old was promptly released by the Washington Football team.
Guice missed his entire rookie season with an ACL tear in his left knee. Last season, he played just five games, suffering through a meniscus tear in his right knee, followed by an MCL sprain in his right knee. Guice’s ADP has understandably fallen over the last year, but it was starting to bounce back a bit the last two months, and dynasty managers were cautiously optimistic entering the 2020 season.
The optimism has been vaporized. Guice is now a player without a team and will likely face a suspension from the NFL.
What are we doing with Guice?
In my personal rankings, I’ve dropped him 31 spots all the way down to RB65. Unfortunately, August mock drafts have been underway for a week now so we won’t have a great ADP picture until September, but I’m guessing the bottom falls out, perhaps as low as the 15th round. At this price, it’s possible he becomes a buy for the less risk-averse dynasty GMs.
Those who bought Tyreek Hill when the news of his potential legal troubles broke during the 2019 off-season certainly are reaping the rewards now but this is a pretty different situation. We already knew Hill was an elite talent and we still have no idea if Guice is even a good player at the NFL level.
I’d be hard-pressed to pay more than a third-round pick in the 2021 draft to acquire him. Between the injury history and the off-field troubles, there’s just too much risk for me to consider anything more than that. If you currently have Guice rostered, you probably just have to hold and see what happens unless you’re ready to completely bail.
What about the other guys?
Adrian Peterson
One of the muddiest backfield situations in the league didn’t get much clearer even with Guice’s release. 35-year-old and future Hall of Famer Adrian Peterson is likely to see another season with a heavy workload. His dynasty value is still near zero because of his age but for a win-now team, it might be worth investing in Peterson for one more run. He had nearly 900 yards and five touchdowns last season and ran for 1,042 with seven touchdowns in 2018 so there’s some production still to be had. I don’t mind spending a mid-late third-round pick to acquire some production and depth.
Antonio Gibson
It’s been talked to death, but without a true off-season, young players are at a disadvantage when competing with returning veterans for snaps. That’s especially true for rookie Gibson who Washington selected in the third round of the NFL draft. Gibson is one of my favorite players in this class but asking someone who had 33 total carries at Memphis to be a lead back seems unfair.
It’s certainly possible that Gibson is so good with the ball in his hands that he demands usage, but him leading the backfield from the get-go seems unlikely. That said, I’m excited about the potential upside and have moved him up to RB26 in my rankings. If someone comes calling with a 2021 first then I’m probably willing to sell, but at this point, it’s going to take more than a second to pry him from my rosters.
Bryce Love
Love missed his entire rookie season after tearing an ACL late in his senior season at Stanford. The former 2,000-yard rusher needs to show he is healthy, but the opportunity is there for him to take over this backfield when you really consider what is ahead of him on the depth chart. If I can get him for a third-round pick, I’m absolutely buying.
Peyton Barber
Some combination of the top three are likely to receive most, if not all of the workload in 2020, but there are two more dark-horse candidates to be fantasy-relevant. Barber is a solid running back that has been a serviceable back for Tampa the last three seasons but without some injuries above him on the depth chart, he seems unlikely to see much work. In terms of dynasty, he’s on your waiver wire but I’m probably still not interested except in the deepest of leagues.
JD McKissic
McKissic, on the other hand, is intriguing as a pass-catching option. Coach Ron Rivera has seen the value of a receiving back over the last three seasons as the head coach of Carolina and if Gibson struggles early, it’s possible McKissic gets involved as a receiver out of the backfield. He caught 34 balls in 2019 for Detroit and before that, he caught another 34 passes in Seattle back in 2017. Washington signed him to a two-year deal this off-season so they at least had him in their plans prior to drafting Gibson. I’m not paying anything for McKissic, but I’m happy to add him from the waiver wire and see what happens.
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