Twitter Observations: Undervalued Amari Cooper, Aging Aaron Rodgers and Blazing Matt Breida
Well, it’s really happening. Veterans and rookies have both now reported to training camp and the reports of players ‘being in the best shape of their lives’ have started. Even the HBO show Hard Knocks is starting up next week! With all that’s going on in the world, it’s nice to have some normalcy when it comes to our dynasty leagues.
This also means rosters – real and fantasy – have time to be tuned up before the season starts. Below is what’s happening in the Twitter-sphere when it comes to your dynasty teams.
A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a redraft slant to them but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications.
Hanging with Mr. Cooper
Just 23.4 percent of you said that Amari Cooper should absolutely be rostered as a WR1. I'm willing to bet that 95 percent would've said Tyreek Hill should be. Well, here's their Boom, Bust, and Everything charts from 2019… https://t.co/NAMGNSeCe5 pic.twitter.com/C0gFpT0Y0S
— Mike Tagliere (@MikeTagliereNFL) August 5, 2020
Despite the tweet above being geared towards redraft leagues, the same could be said about Amari Cooper in dynasty leagues. At first glance, Cooper may not seem like a candidate to be the top receiver on your dynasty team but there’s really no reason he shouldn’t. He’s only 26, turned in four 1,000-yard seasons over his first five seasons, and is on one of the top offenses in the league.
His detractors have always had a reason to downgrade Cooper’s dynasty value and this year is no different. When he was in Oakland, he was inherently tied to Derek Carr. Even when he was then traded to Dallas, he was entering an offense that focused on running the ball rather than passing it. And even though that last hypothesis was blown out of the water last year, the addition of receiver CeeDee Lamb in the 2020 draft has brought out the naysayers again.
Dynasty Impact: Cooper is another veteran receiver being overshadowed by the new, young players coming in the league and even on his own team. But there’s no reason to discount him or his dynasty value. He just signed an extension in Dallas that will keep him there at least the next couple of years with one of those with quarterback Dak Prescott. If your dynasty team is lacking a true WR1, all it would cost you, according to our DLF Trade Analyzer, is a rookie pick in the three-five range. This would be more amenable than taking a chance on a rookie receiver.
Mr. Rodgers’ Neighborhood
There are two seasons in NFL history in which a QB has thrown for 4,000 yards and fewer than 5 INT.
Aaron Rodgers last year, and Aaron Rodgers the year before that. pic.twitter.com/iWdpkDk8St
— Get Up (@GetUpESPN) August 5, 2020
For as good as Aaron Rodgers is/has been, stats like the one above are still impressive – not for the accomplishment itself but also because Rodgers is doing it as he’s on the supposed downside of his career. It is a career that doesn’t really need to be justified but I will here just for funsies: he’s thrown for 4,000 yards eight times and had four seasons of 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns; he’s even had eight seasons of 200-plus rushing yards. On the fantasy side, no one was elite for longer with seven seasons of finishing as fantasy’s highest or second-highest quarterback.
Dynasty Impact: There’s no doubt that having a 36-year old quarterback on your dynasty roster is not ideal, but I would argue Rodgers represents a screaming value. Yes, he’s old but not as old as either Tom Brady or Drew Brees or even Philip Rivers yet all three will contribute in fantasy this season. Others are concerned about the Green Bay offense shifting away from Rodgers and in multiple ways. The most immediate is the Packers emphasis on the run where they ranked 13th in rush attempts in Matt LaFleur’s first season as coach. Between this shift and his age, he’s seen his ADP value show a decent decline:
Yet for all the concern about Rodgers’ value, he still finished as a low-end QB1 in fantasy scoring.
Long-term, the Packers used a first-round pick (after trading up!) on the heir apparent, Jordan Love. It would be a colossal upset for Rodgers to still be in Green Bay in two-three years where he will end up on another team or just retire. But for the foreseeable future, Rodgers is still Rodgers and if a dynasty team is selling, I’m buying.
Dolphin Tale
Mike Gesicki ran 374 routes out of the slot last year. The next most by a TE (Greg Olsen) was 243.
Gesicki ran more slot routes than any TE since Tony Gonzalez seven years ago, via PFF. https://t.co/IQbLiUKumS
— Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman) August 5, 2020
If you haven’t been run over by the Mike Gesicki hype train, there’s still time. As a second-round pick in the 2018 Draft, and as the second tight end taken, there were high hopes for Gesicki right out of the gate. And while he struggled his rookie season, like most tight ends do, he had a semi-breakout last year, seeing 89 targets for 570 yards and five touchdowns.
He really came on strong in the last half of the season when he saw at least five targets in his last nine games and scored his five touchdowns over the last six games of the season. In all, he ended the 2019 season as a low-end TE1.
Dynasty Impact: The above development is a great sign along with his continued development. If Gesicki keeps lining up in the slot, it just means more opportunities for targets and receptions. The Dolphins seem to admit that Gesicki is a much better pass catcher than blocker and they committed. Add to that the drafting of the (hopeful) long-term solution at quarterback in Tua Tagovailoa and you have a recipe for a consistent TE1.
Using the DLF Trade Analyzer, Gesicki is currently worth a late second-round rookie pick. In cross-checking with the DLF Rookie Draft App, every rookie tight end will virtually be there in the third round. Give me the veteran who has worked the rookie kinks out and primed to break out even more over the unknown even if it costs me a spot or two.
Dolphin Tale 2
Matt Breida declares himself the fastest player in the NFL https://t.co/Fw7zSIXUWK
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) August 5, 2020
Hoo boy. While Matt Breida can technically lay claim to that title (he registered the fastest on-field speed last season), Tyreek Hill dynasty owners may disagree. Regardless, Breida’s speed is just one feature for the new Dolphins running back. Traded in the off-season for a fifth-round pick, Breida leaves one timeshare in San Francisco and enters another in Miami who also signed Jordan Howard in the off-season. But he seemingly has less competition now that there’s only one back to challenge him for carries (Kalen Ballage doesn’t count) instead of two in San Francisco.
The Dolphins offense should also be better with the eventual arrival of rookie Tagovailoa and an offensive line that at least added new pieces to the worst unit in football last year, according to Pro Football Focus. The Dolphins ‘second-to-last ranking in yards per carry should be immediately boosted by all the additions above including Breida (5.0 career YPC) and Howard (career 4.3 YPC).
Dynasty Impact: Using the DLF Trade Analyzer, Breida is currently worth a late second-round rookie pick. As fast and good as Breida has been, I would probably take the pick. The rookie running backs left at that stage of the draft include Zack Moss and Antonio Gibson, both of whom could enter a timeshare right away, just like Breida, but are younger and under contract for much longer. Breida is a free agent after this season and it’s anyone’s guess where he’ll end up and if he’ll be a viable fantasy starter.
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