2020 Summer Sleeper: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.
To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:
Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.
Because we aren’t going to give you the likes of mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Adam Thielen is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.
The ‘Jameis Winston Experience’ has given way to the GOAT as Tom Brady arrives in Tampa Bay. Offensive-minded head coach Bruce Arians returns for a second year to lead a team loaded with weapons.
The aim of this piece is to define the sleeper status and path to production of a certain Buccaneers rookie…
Tyler Johnson, WR
Category: Sleeper
THE PLAYER
Johnson broke out by surpassing the 20% market share production metric as a 19-year old sophomore at Minnesota. His breakout age and dominator rating are in the top ten percent of historical wide receiver prospects.
He earned national attention with a 78-1,169-12 receiving line as a junior and managed to improve those numbers as a senior. He will be just a 21-year old rookie when training camps open.
Data from sports-reference.com.
While there is a lot to like about Johnson’s prospect profile, fifth-round draft capital is a red flag. He possesses good size and hands but touches were rarely manufactured for him in creative ways. On film, he lacks explosion and needs time and space to build up speed. His short-area quickness lends itself to a slot receiver role, but if you are looking for a yards-after-catch monster you should look elsewhere.
THE SITUATION
Johnson joins an offense expected to be among the league’s best. In dynasty, we like to buy into high-powered offenses, and low-cost sleepers can yield exceptional returns with modest investments. But in this case, the path to production is blocked by two wide receivers with ADPs in the top 30 overall (per July DLF startup ADP). Situations can change, but how challenging will it be for Johnson to find fantasy relevance absent an injury to Chris Godwin or Mike Evans?
Since 2010, only six teams have produced three top-36 receivers in a season. Funny enough, Tampa Bay was one of the most recent to do so (in 2018, along with Atlanta).
The overall WR36 over those ten years averaged 168.8 PPR points. Over this period, only two rookie wide receivers drafted in the fifth round or later reached this threshold (Tyreek Hill, Darius Slayton). In fact, since the 1970 merger, only four players have done so. Despite the Bucs’ potent offense, the odds are against Johnson making an impact in year one.
Data from Pro Football Reference.
THE COST
Johnson is the 31st player off the board per DLF rookie ADP, roughly the 3.07 pick. This puts him between running back Joshua Kelley and wide receiver Devin Duvernay. He gets pushed down six spots in superflex to the 37th rookie, between running back Eno Benjamin and tight end Adam Trautman.
In startups, expect to use a 17th round pick or so to get Johnson as his DLF overall dynasty ADP is 193. This is in the neighborhood of players such as Lamical Perine, Justin Jackson, Steven Sims, and Jalen Hurd.
The DLF Trade Analyzer arrives at asset values by combining DLF rankings, ADP data, and real-world MyFantasyLeague trades. It values Johnson in line with the 4.04 rookie pick. This is nearly a full round lower than DLF rankings and ADP, suggesting real-world trades are depressing his value relative to the other inputs. It also suggests he may be cheaper to acquire via trade than by draft (both rookie and startup).
THE CONCLUSION
Tyler Johnson’s value may have peaked as a devy prospect following his junior season. Despite a stellar production profile, he fell to the fifth round of the NFL draft. The Bucs should have one of the league’s best pass offenses, but a rising tide will not necessarily lift all boats (or pirate ships). There is a limited line of sight to short-term production. Are you willing to reserve a roster spot on a mid-third round rookie pick (and fifth-round NFL selection) whose upside case is his team’s number four target?
- 20/20: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama - February 26, 2022
- Cornerstone Report: Week Nine - November 12, 2021
- Cornerstone Report: Week Eight - November 5, 2021
