2020 Summer Sleeper: Indianapolis Colts

Bruce Matson

In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.

To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:

Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.

Because we aren’t going to give you the likes of mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Adam Thielen is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.

The Indianapolis Colts walked away from this year’s draft with one of the sexiest fantasy hauls in the NFL. They started things off by drafting Michael Pittman with their first pick in the second round. The team needed to add some youth to the receiving corps and Pittman will be the bridge that helps the Colts’ passing game over the hump.

A few picks later, the Colts drafted Jonathan Taylor, running back from Wisconsin. Many had him penciled in as the best back in the draft class. He adds another dynamic to the offense because he has home-run-hitting speed combined with the size to run between the tackles. Taylor was very productive at Wisconsin, rushing for 6,174 yards and 50 touchdowns during his three-year collegiate career.

In the fourth round, the Colts decided to pull the trigger on former five-star recruit Jacob Eason. He’s a developmental quarterback prospect who will sit behind Philip Rivers and Jacoby Brissett during his rookie season.

But after them…

Dezmon Patmon, WR

Category: Deep Sleeper

The Colts capped things off in the sixth round by drafting Patmon, a wide receiver from Washington State. Since the team made two mega selections by drafting Pittman and Taylor in the second round, Patmon went unnoticed in rookie drafts, making him a deep sleeper on the Colts roster.

patmon ms stats

Courtesy of DLF’s College Market Share App

One of the reasons why Patmon fell in the draft was his lack of college production. His junior season in 2018 was his best season when he caught 61 passes for 816 yards and five touchdowns. He still only commanded a 16.79 percent market share of the team’s passing production. Gardner Minshew did a very good job of spreading around the football as he led five different pass catchers to 50 or more receptions. On top of that, four receivers produced 600 yards or more in 2018.

Patmon didn’t stand out during his senior season. Quarterback Anthony Gordon almost evenly distributed the football among all of his passing targets. Max Borghi caught 86 passes for 597 yards. Even though Patmon wasn’t able to produce video-game numbers during his senior season, he was able to post a 40 percent contested catch rate and an average 2.18 yards per route run.

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Courtesy of DLF’s Player Combine Performance App

What makes Patmon a fascinating wide receiver prospect is his athleticism. He tested with a 95th-percentile size-adjusted speed score. His 96th-percentile broad jump combined with his 54th-percentile vertical jump indicates that he’s a very explosive athlete. The major concern from his workout numbers is his lack of short-area quickness which is represented by his 7.28 three-cone and his 4.38 shuttle time.

Not only does he have the speed to effectively get downfield at the next level but his 6-foot-4 and 225-pound frame will create an added advantage against most cornerbacks. Add that to his 32 3/4-inch arm length and you have a wide receiver who has the potential to win at the catch point with sheer size and a scalable catch radius.

https://twitter.com/SportsDGI/status/1078857480975708160?s=20

Patmon is more than capable of climbing the ladder and using his large 10 1/4-inch hands to reel in the football. He boxes out defenders at the catch point and can contort his body to get in position to make the catch. As you can see from the clip posted above, he doesn’t have an elite level vertical, but his size combined with his extension makes it easy for him to convert targets that are well above his head.

His burst combined with long-speed shows up on tape. He can quickly accelerate when he gets the ball in the open field. Once he gets going, he has the speed to pull away from the defense. The inertia created from his speed and quickness makes him very tough to tackle in one-on-one situations.

All he needs to do is utilize his athleticism to make some big plays during camp to get some attention from the coaching staff. If he continues to perform then we could see him worked into the mix. With him being a large target who also has the speed to get downfield, he could be thought of as an asset in red-zone situations during the early stages of his career.

Attrition creates opportunities for the longshot players on the roster. We haven’t seen TY Hilton play a full 16-game season since 2017. Injuries are starting to mount up on the 30-year-old veteran. There’s always a chance that he misses a few games.

Although Parris Campbell seems like a breakout candidate for 2020, he only had one productive season at Ohio State. It took him until his senior season to usurp the 1,000-yard mark. His speed and athleticism are very exciting. Injuries prevented him from seeing a bigger role during his rookie season.

All it takes is for one of the starting wide receivers to either bust or go down with an injury for Patmon to receive some extra playing time. It is something that’s not outside the realm of possibilities, but is also something we shouldn’t root for either. Most deep sleepers will need a break in the depth chart for them to see an increase in snap share. After all, the starters are going to continue getting their workload as long as they’re on the field helping the team move the chains.

If he plays well during camp and takes full advantage of all the opportunities that are granted to him, then we will see Patmon on the field for four and five wide receiver sets. There will be moments in games where he will get the chance to flash his talent. If he consistently wins on the field, the coaching staff will need to figure out a way to implement him more in the offensive game plan.

Being the next out-of-nowhere breakout player seems like a stretch for a rookie wide receiver who was drafted in the sixth round, but his size and speed might be enough to set him apart from the rest on the roster.

According to DLF’s ADP, he’s going undrafted in rookie drafts. He’s currently an afterthought, making him a deep sleeper in all fantasy formats. The odds of him exceeding expectations and becoming the fantasy football superstar are slim to none which is why he is categorized as a deep sleeper.

Patmon is an end-of-bench-stash in deep dynasty leagues. In normal-sized leagues, he’s best left on the waiver wire. Just keep your finger on the button just in case he starts making waves in camp or in games.

bruce matson