Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: DeeJay Dallas, RB SEA
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.
Name: DeeJay Dallas
Position: Running back
Pro Team: Seattle Seahawks
College Team: Miami (Florida)
Draft Status: Round four, 144th overall
VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS
In this film, Dallas’s first two touches are as a receiver. In the first play, he lines up in the slot and schemed a target behind the line of scrimmage. He shows an ability to extend for the catch, however that is followed by a lack of explosiveness.
He creates yards by initiating contact rather than eluding defenders. When he does cut or move laterally, he needs several steps to gather himself. He does not look as compact as his 30th-percentile BMI suggests, and his upright running style reinforces this visual.
At the 2:40 mark, Miami (FL) faces a second-and-19 from its own 45-yard line. Dallas jumps, makes a one-handed catch of a screen pass, then builds a head of steam to break three tackles en route to a 40-yard gain. We see how long it takes him to reach full speed, but we also see his quality hands and a hard-charging style that can be effective.
COMBINE REVIEW
- Height: 5’10”
- Weight: 217 pounds
- Hands: NA
- 40-yard dash: 4.58 seconds
- Bench press: NA
- Vertical jump: 33.5”
- Broad jump: 119”
- Three-cone: 7.18s
- 20-yard shuttle: 4.32s
STRENGTHS
- Despite just 28 career college receptions, his soft hands are evident on film
- Size
- Breaks tackles by initiating contact
- 21-year old rookie
WEAKNESSES
- Lack of explosiveness
- Lack of collegiate production
- Lack of big-play ability
OPPORTUNITIES
In 2019, Dallas split backfield carries and receptions equally with sophomore Cam’Ron Harris. The Seahawks saw enough positives to take him in the fourth round.
Statistics from sports-reference.com.
Since Pete Carroll took over the Seahawks in 2010, his offenses have produced five top-12 fantasy running back seasons. Marshawn Lynch had an impressive four-year stretch of top-six finishes to 2014 while Chris Carson finished as RB12 last year (and just missed the threshold as RB15 the year prior). In all ten seasons, either with or without an RB1-level performance, no other running back on the team finished as a top 24 fantasy back. The lead guy in Seattle gets the team’s fantasy production.
Despite having one of the league’s most efficient quarterbacks, the Seahawks are notoriously run-heavy. Since Russell Wilson joined Carroll in 2012, Seattle’s average rank in rushing attempts is near the top of the league (6.8 of 32 teams) while its average rank in pass attempts (26.5 of 32 teams) is near the bottom. During that time, the Seahawks finished in the top three in rush attempts for six seasons and had the dead last number of pass attempts three years. The team will have one back with plenty of carries.
THREATS
Leave it to Seattle to assemble a running back depth chart in reverse order of salary cap hit.
The good news for Dallas is that Carson and Carlos Hyde are unrestricted free agents after the 2020 season. Rashaad Penny is signed through 2021 but in two NFL seasons has compiled just 947 scrimmage yards and has started zero games. Hyde is a declining asset providing depth under a one-year contract.
The backfield is Carson’s. And while he was just a seventh-round draft pick in 2017, he has shown the ability to produce over long stretches, starting 32 of the last 33 games in which he appeared. He is also a competent receiver, catching 37 balls on 47 targets in 2019.
SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS
For Dallas, the short-term expectation is to surpass at least one of Penny or Hyde on the depth chart. By doing so, Dallas would have the opportunity to flash and retain his dynasty value.
LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS
Draft capital does not ensure a starting role in Seattle. Last year, former seventh-rounder Carson produced a RB1 season while first-rounder Rashaad Penny rushed for 370 yards on just 65 attempts. This is good news for Dallas. He also signed a four-year deal through 2023. As noted, none of the other top three running backs on the team are signed through 2021.
My expectation, however, is that Dallas will play past his rookie contract but does not possess long-term upside. His best traits are common and his overall prospect profile, despite some positives, is not one of a long-term viable fantasy asset. That said, he has value as a hold-and-flip candidate should something happen to Carson or should the Seahawks not meaningfully address the running back position next off-season.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON
MockDraftable builds visual representations of players’ athletic profiles. For Dallas it shows a collection of traits that are, at best, average. The site also uses measurables and college production to assemble a group of player comparables. The Dallas peer group includes Chris Thompson, Spencer Ware, Vernand Morency and Zack Moss. Thompson possesses (or at least used to possess) good top-end speed so his inclusion surprises me, but the others make sense.
Other comparisons that come to my mind include Thomas Rawls and Wayne Gallman.
PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE
According to the latest DLF rookie ADP results, Dallas is the 35th rookie off the board, so expect to use a late third or early fourth-round rookie pick to acquire him. He sits between wide receiver Antonio Gandy-Golden and tight end Adam Trautman. In rookie superflex drafts (per DLF superflex rookie ADP), he is pushed down to 40th, between Trautman and running back Lamical Perine.
His overall ADP has already been volatile. It rose about 50 spots around the NFL Draft but has settled outside the top 200 in dynasty startup ADP as RB65. The excitement of dynasty players in May did not last.
DeeJay Dallas is inexpensive in both rookie and startup drafts. He joins a backfield that produces relevant fantasy assets and loses its top two backs after this year. While long-term expectations for Dallas should be held in check, he offers upside as a low cost, hold-and-flip candidate.
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