Twitter Observations: Rookie Camps and Opt-Outs
Other sports are starting back up and football is on track to do the same. The current NFL schedule calls for rookies on a handful of teams to report this week while it’s also the week where players can choose to opt-out of the season over COVID-19 concerns. Both have resulted in some interesting and useful Tweets when it comes to our dynasty teams.
A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a redraft slant to them but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications.
Critical Moss
Have charted 57 RBs for yards created over the last five college seasons. Zack Moss (2.4) is 3rd-best in yards per route run behind Joe Mixon (2.9) and Alvin Kamara (2.8).
Devin Singletary ranked 57th (0.3). Dead last. In his rookie season, Singletary was 36th of 39 RBs in YPPR.
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) July 29, 2020
We’ll start off the Rookie Camp edition of Twitter Observations with a rookie Tweet. When the Bills drafted Devin Singletary last year, not many people expected him to be the lead back of a run-heavy Bills offense before the end of his rookie season but that’s exactly what happened. Between injuries and veteran deference by coaches, Singletary failed to see double-digit carries for the entire first half of the season.
That changed in the last half as he averaged 16 carries the rest of the way, including two 20+ carry games and supplanted Frank Gore as the starter. Gore wasn’t retained after the season which, for a short time, meant Singletary had the backfield all to himself. That was until the Bills drafted Zack Moss in the third round, just like Singletary, and immediately sparked a debate about which back was the one to own in dynasty leagues. And as the tweet above indicates, it may not be Singletary.
Dynasty Impact: No one doubts Devin Singletary had a great rookie season, especially if you extrapolate the fantastic second half of his season over 16 games. But Buffalo still used decent draft capital on a running back who very well could be better than Singletary if he isn’t already. Besides the stat above, Moss was one of PFF’s top-three backs when it came to broken-tackles-per-carry while also adding yardage in the passing game at Utah – both things that Singletary lacked heading into his rookie season. So, besides the 166 carries Gore leaves behind, Moss could pick some more touches in the passing game too. 
Moss is currently a few spots behind Singletary when it comes to dynasty ADP but that might not last long. Using the DLF Trade Analyzer, you can swap Singletary for Moss plus pick up a second-round rookie pick, a trade I would gladly do.
Adam Fever
Adam Thielen went 113-1,373-9 on 153 targets in 2018 and it's like none of you even care
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) July 29, 2020
This may be a rookie camp edition, but I can’t forget about veterans including Adam Thielen. With Stefon Diggs off to Buffalo and the Vikings bringing in a rookie to start opposite Thielen, he seemingly has the passing game all to himself. But in looking at his ADP trajectory, you wouldn’t think that:
The ascension covered the years where Thielen broke out for nearly 1,000 yards in 2016 then topped 1,200 and 1,300 yards in 2017 and 2018, respectively. By all accounts, 2019 was a disaster as Thielen managed just over 400 receiving yards in ten games. Between missing six whole games due to injury and being hobbled in most of the games he played, his fantasy relevance was sapped. He’s now recovered and has had an off-season (and possibly more!) to recover.
Dynasty Impact: The 30th ADP ranking Thielen currently has seems disrespectful. When healthy, he turned in clear-cut WR1 seasons. And that was with fellow stud Diggs across from him. Now Diggs is gone, and no one seems to think Thielen will be better for it, at least when it comes to fantasy scoring. His current ADP as a mid-WR3 is a bargain.
Tony Express
RB Leaders in PFF Elusive Rating (2010-2019)
1 Tony Pollard, 2019 (116.1)
2 Alvin Kamara, 2017 (108.5)
3 Josh Jacobs, 2019 (103.6)
4 Nick Chubb, 2018 (103.3)
5 Kenyan Drake, 2017 (96.3)
6 C.J. Spiller, 2012 (94.6)
7 Marshawn Lynch, 2014 (2014)
8 Derrick Henry, 2018 (89.7)— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) July 25, 2020
Tony Pollard was a hot commodity in rookie drafts last year, especially during the Ezekiel Elliott hold-out crises. The fourth-round pick was the primary backup for America’s Team and was in-line to see starter carries if Elliott didn’t play. But Elliott did sign, he did play, and relegated Pollard to a backup role. Pollard was still relevant though, totaling over 500 total yards of offense and scoring three times. He also proved to be one of the more valuable backup/handcuffs in the league – whether it’s real or fantasy.
Dynasty Impact: If you need depth for your dynasty team with a lot of upside, Pollard is an intriguing target. Using the DLF Trade Analyzer, Pollard can be had for a late second-round rookie pick which could net you the aforementioned Zack Moss, AJ Dillon or Antonio Gibson in terms of running backs. But each draft is different and if the above three backs are gone and you’re still looking for one, Pollard would be a great addition. His talent alone is worth it while he’s already had a one-year head start on 2020 rookies. He’s just as young as them, is surrounded by talent for the foreseeable future, and is just one bone-headed mistake from Elliott away from being the starter.
COVID-19 Dropout
The #Chiefs have announced that RB Damien Williams informed the team of his decision to opt out for the 2020 season.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) July 29, 2020
There have been plenty of players choosing to opt-out of the 2020 season because of COVID-19 but Damien Williams is the most fantasy-relevant to date. Yes, we know what it does to Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s value but what does it do to the player in question? Williams is coming off his best season as a pro and wasn’t a sure thing to be immediately supplanted as Kansas City’s starter. And even if he lost starter carries, Williams would still have flashes and be a supporting player on one of the best, if not the best, offenses in the league.
Dynasty Impact: The impact is already being felt as Williams drops to 52nd among running backs according to our dynasty rankers. And there’s no doubt that how Williams will be handled will depend on how a dynasty league is rostering COVID-19-exempt players. But it’s worth looking at Williams who now won’t be a free agent after the 2020 season since his contract will be tolled, and as a result, will return to the Chiefs’ offense instead of becoming a possible free agent in a running back-heavy free agent and draft year. There’s no real point in trading Williams right now and is a strong hold.
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