2020 Summer Sleeper: Cleveland Browns
In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.
To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:
Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.
Because we aren’t going to give you the likes of mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Adam Thielen is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.
Big things were expected from the 2017 tight end class that included Evan Engram, OJ Howard, Gerald Everett, Jonnu Smith, Jake Butt, and George Kittle among many others. While Kittle has lived up to the hype, most of the other tight ends from the class have failed to reach the heights of fantasy success we had hoped for.
One such player who has disappointed, in the eyes of the community, is situated in Cleveland. The dynasty community can be fickle with our love for players and despite it being common knowledge that tight ends often take several seasons (and sometimes a new team) before breaking out, this one has seemingly fallen to the wayside.
David Njoku, TE
Category: Sleeper
Coming out of the University of Miami in 2017, the physically gifted Njoku found himself a darling of the dynasty community checking in as the tenth tight end off the board during dynasty startup drafts. Checking in at 6’4” and averaging over 16 yards per reception during his college career certainly played a part in the love he received.
Despite a modest rookie season in which he hauled in 32 receptions, including four touchdowns for 386 yards, dynasty drafters were still enamored with Njoku’s upside. Using the DLF ADP/Rank vs. PPG tool, we see that he was drafted at the TE6 (roughly), in 2018. Njoku rewarded drafters with a TE13 season in 2018, which I would argue was actually better than it looks on paper, considering that the two players directly ahead of him in scoring (Jack Doyle and Tyler Eifert) only played a total of ten games. Even though Njoku saw marked increases in games started, targets, receptions, and receiving yards during his sophomore season, his ADP actually dropped a bit in 2019. 
Regardless of the dip in ADP, it’s fair to say that most of us expected the 2019 season to be a true breakout year for Njoku. We were incorrect and wildly so. Week one went well with Njoku catching four or six targets including a touchdown and putting up 13.7 fantasy points. And that was the last good thing I can tell you about his 2019 season.
In week two he fractured his wrist and suffered a concussion on the same play and ended up on the injured reserve list. He made it back to the field in week 14, but let a pass get ripped out of his hands and it turned into an interception. This displeased the great Freddie Kitchens so much that Njoku was a healthy scratch for the following two weeks. Though he was allowed to play in the season finale, he didn’t see a single target in that game and his season on a whole can be looked at as a disaster.
If you thought the Browns would have been smart enough to chalk Njoku’s disastrous season up to a brutal injury and brutal head coaching you would have been sorely mistaken. Instead, they gifted Austin Hooper with a four-year, $42 million contract this off-season. This contract is legit too. Per Spotrac, the Browns don’t have a reasonable out until after the third season, so Hooper is the long-term plan at the tight end position, not Njoku. This would help explain why you can now acquire Njoku as the TE20 in dynasty startup drafts.
If you’re looking for silver linings, I’ve found a few for you to cling to.
New head coach Kevin Stefanski ran the second most two tight end sets as the offensive coordinator in Minnesota last year, per Sharp Football Stats. The “second” tight end in the Vikings scheme last year, Irv Smith Jr., saw 558 snaps and 47 targets. Though Smith only finished as a TE3, it’s plausible to expect the Browns to pass at a higher rate than the Vikings did last season (30th in pass attempts per game) based on the superior pass-catching weapons the Browns possess.
There is also the distinct possibility that Hooper will be asked to block more often than Njoku as well based on his superior pass and run blocking skills. Njoku also happens to be a far more explosive athlete than Hooper, and despite an abysmal 2019 season, still averages a full yard per reception more than Hooper during their careers.
Statistics via Pro Football Reference.
Statistics via Pro Football Reference.
Njoku is still just 24 years old and will hit free agency no older than the age of 26. He could hit free agency after the 2020 season as the Browns would take on no dead cap space if they were to cut him. At worst, Njoku is a player you should be targeting as a stash hoping he will break out once he moves on from Cleveland. Tight ends such as Greg Olsen, Delanie Walker, Jared Cook, and Eric Ebron have all shown in the past that moving to another roster can be the impetus for a career revival.
Njoku has also requested a trade, which though unlikely, is another reason for optimism. He could land on an offense that needs, and chooses, to feature a hyper-athletic, explosive receiving option and we could see him put up top 12 production this season.
Buying now while the acquisition cost is depressed is the smart play. Don’t wait until Njoku is traded, or becomes a free agent. Taking a peek at the Dynasty Trade Finder tool provides a framework for you to send out offers in your leagues for Njoku. If any of your league mates offers you Njoku for Tim Patrick and a 2021 third-round rookie pick, you slam that “accept” button hard.
As the 188th player off the board, and the 20th TE, there is nowhere for Njoju’s cost and value to go but up.
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